The 2013 HAMISH_MCTAVISH Predictions Thread

Generali

michaels wrote: »

You seem to be complaining both that the deficit remains too high (resulting in too much debt) and that real incomes are falling, especially at the bottom. Care to postulate what would happen to real wages in the lowest quartile if the deficit were to be reduced more aggressively?!

Perhaps more pertinently, what would happen to household incomes post benefits and taxes. Unless the mythical 1% are going to ride to the rescue I suppose.

purch

Has this thread been Resurrected so that we can make some more 2013 predictions.

I have a few good ones :eek:

Graham_Devon

michaels wrote: »

You seem to be complaining both that the deficit remains too high (resulting in too much debt) and that real incomes are falling, especially at the bottom. Care to postulate what would happen to real wages in the lowest quartile if the deficit were to be reduced more aggressively?!

First off, i'm not complaining. And I haven't stated anything about incomes at any band. I just stated the factual 0.8% wges increase we've seen over 2013. You are, once again, putting an angle on my posts which wasn't there. It's still annoying!

It's a predictions thread. I'm just following up on a prediction from a year ago and reflecting on what happened in the year based on what I had suggested. Putting meat on the bones, as it were.

Secondly, your question is impossible to answer. Economics doens't work in straight lines where X leads to Y. We wouldn't be in this mess if it did.

Third, your question leaves a multitude of open questions....

So let me throw a question back. What do you think will happen if we continue increasing debt and leaving pay static? I'm thinking along the lines of how taxes will cover the extra spend considering wages are all but static?

There is no easy option, but reducing debt and the pain that goes with it appears to be the most sensible option looking forward. By increasing it, you are simply kicking the can to another day. We have more and more having to use tax credits and housing benefits. More and more taking out of the pot as they have suddenly found themselves entitled to it....and the scary thing is, a lot of these people find that nothing has changed. They just become entitled as prices rise and pay stays static. Payday will come at some point. Surely it's better to deal with it today then tommorow when the problem is so much larger?

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

1. House prices will rise. Indices will range from 0 to +5

House price rose, indices range from +3 to +7.....

Another year of being too bearish.:o

2. FTB numbers will increase as FLS filters through into an increase in lending.

Yes.

3. Inflation will remain in a range between 2% and 3.5% for most of the year.

Yes.

4. Unemployment will fall slightly

Unemployment fell strongly.

5. Interest rates will end the year at or below 1%

Yes.

6. Mortgage lending for new purchases will increase markedly and average above 60k per month for the year

Well it's certainly there now.

No idea what the annual average is.

7. Rents will continue to increase at a similar rate to 2012 and reach another new record high

Yes.

8. Most of the worst performing areas in the North will bottom out, some will start rising.

Yes.

9. Northern Ireland house prices will bottom out.

Yes.

10. Politics: ConDems will quietly reverse course economically as the reality of an election gets closer. There will be more stimulus to get the economy moving.

Yes.

HTB2 a prime example.

11. Average wages will increase by more than they did this year.

Yes.

12. There will not be two consecutive quarters of negative GDP in 2013

Yes.

And as outliers.....

13. Carney/Osborne will switch BOE policy to NGDP targeting.

14. BASEL 3 requirements will be softened/delayed further

13. Not formally, although forward guidance is close.

14. Nothing of big significance.


Quite pleased with those results.

2014 thread coming soon.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Not much left to predict. They crashed. The bubble is deflating, and will deflate further as the wider economy recovers.

Silver sits around 30 dollars today, having peaked at near 50 almost 18 months ago.

Gold sits around 1675 having peaked at nearly 1900. Gold had a bit of a dead cat bounce in the first part of last year, but has resumed falling for the last 3 months.

And a big fat YES for this one as well.

The Gold and Silver bubble continued to deflate this year, with Gold now around $1220 and Silver around $20.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Linda_D wrote: »

Well what do you expect when the only person in the whole country is still in denial of there being a double dip recesssion.

Do you know anyone else who's also a double dip recession denier?

Yep.

As it turns out, I was right about that one after all.

There was no double dip recession.

mayonnaise

Congratulations Hamish. :beer:

Special mention also to nollag2006, Mr. Pricklepants, wotsthat, Rinoa and a few others for getting it so right.

Loughton_Monkey

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

....2014 thread coming soon.

Something to look forward to....

Will it include:

• Outcome of Independence Vote?
• Bitcoin Valuation by Year End?
• Likelihood of Double Peak boom?
• Mortgage SVR by year end?
• Number of new HTB posts originating from Devon during 2014?

michaels

Did average wages increase by more than last year?

Generali is right, I meant what would happen to lowest quartile household incomes not wages?

Graham I agree that debt can not grow more quickly than GDP forever however I would argue strongly that reducing the deficit more quickly will lead to slower earnings growth and as mentioned an even greater hit to the household income of the poorest. Don't forget that deficit expenditure by the govt is just deferred taxation and taxation is extremely progressive and getting more so.

zagfles

mayonnaise wrote: »

Congratulations Hamish. :beer:

Special mention also to nollag2006, Mr. Pricklepants, wotsthat, Rinoa and a few others for getting it so right.

Well it's a vast improvement over this one :rotfl:
https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/3948115