The 2013 HAMISH_MCTAVISH Predictions Thread

Graham_Devon

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Oh please......

The national debt is tiny compared to how it's been for most of the last century.

Oh please.

You are comparing peacetime to world wars.

Mr._Pricklepants

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Oh please.

You are comparing peacetime to world wars.

Oh please, learn to read a graph.

It's been higher every single year from the start of the 20th Century until 1970-ish.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Mr._Pricklepants wrote: »

Oh please, learn to read a graph.

It's been higher every single year from the start of the 20th Century until 1970-ish.

Yep.

1975 until 2010 were pretty much the lowest debt years in the last century.

Even under Brown, our debt remained low by historical standards and lower than most of the G20.

Graham_Devon

Mr._Pricklepants wrote: »

Oh please, learn to read a graph.

It's been higher every single year from the start of the 20th Century until 1970-ish.

Oh please....get an education and figure out when World War 1 happened.

nollag2006

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

How time flies....

Another year on and results of the previous thread can be found here..... http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showpost.php?p=58297975&postcount=67

2012 saw slightly rising prices, and 2013 should see the trend improve a bit, although nothing too spectacular.

Broadly a year of mild recovery.....

1. House prices will rise. Indices will range from 0 to +5

2. FTB numbers will increase as FLS filters through into an increase in lending.

3. Inflation will remain in a range between 2% and 3.5% for most of the year.

4. Unemployment will fall slightly

5. Interest rates will end the year at or below 1%

6. Mortgage lending for new purchases will increase markedly and average above 60k per month for the year

7. Rents will continue to increase at a similar rate to 2012 and reach another new record high

8. Most of the worst performing areas in the North will bottom out, some will start rising.

9. Northern Ireland house prices will bottom out.

10. Politics: ConDems will quietly reverse course economically as the reality of an election gets closer. There will be more stimulus to get the economy moving.

11. Average wages will increase by more than they did this year.

12. There will not be two consecutive quarters of negative GDP in 2013

And as outliers.....

13. Carney/Osborne will switch BOE policy to NGDP targeting.

14. BASEL 3 requirements will be softened/delayed further

Feel free to add your own predictions here, and we'll review once again in 12 months.

Excellent post Hamish would agree with most of that, other than point 5 on interest rates. I cant see rates rising anytime this year.

Strange that so few of the bears have given us any detailed forecasts, other than the usual "sky is falling in" caterwailing.

mayonnaise

brit1234 wrote: »

Prices will fall in 2013, people are in real terms simply getting poorer and the London housing market is starting to falter.

One day you'll get it right. :rotfl:

System

This thread was and still is hilarious. Hamish way too bearish again! Tsk.

Generali

Generali wrote: »

Using Hamish's list:
1. House prices again broadly flat to down slightly in real terms.
2. Agree. Increasing sales volumes. Perhaps 1,200,000 sales in 2013 on the CML figure. (Increasing sales pretty much has to come from FTBs).
3. Dec 2013 = CPI 4%
4. Unemployment about 2,000,000
5. Base rates below 1%
6. See 2.
7. Rents up by CPI+2 or 3%
8. Northern hell-holes etc flat at best. Big falls in some areas.
9. Northern Ireland see 8.
10. Continuing big falls in the deficit. Cosmetic changes to deficit reduction at best. Maintain course to Plan A.
11. Average wages flat - up in real terms
12. Agree (weather, Queen dying, Euro ending notwithstanding)
13. Not a chance
14. Basle III will be under active renegotiation after the US refuses to implement it

I'm not going to nominate any outliers this year as I am undecided which way things will go. The most likely outcome is a gentle upturn but a possibility is a vicious downturn or even an out of control boom (there has been a lot of stimulus and I don't know about the rest of you but when I am vigorously stimulated there is often a boom of sorts).

I think 2013 will be a largely positive year for the UK economically. The US seems to be very firmly in recovery mode if you forget the politics and look at the data. The UK's economy is often dragged along by that of the US.

I'm not upset with that. I overstated inflation by a fair bit but I did ok overall. Much better than my 2012 predictions IIRC.

Graham_Devon

Graham_Devon wrote: »

My predictions is that we will all continue having no idea.

All that is happening at the moment is the problem (in all countries) is being averted with more borrowing. It's become a mugs game trying to predict when they will stop (and if it will stop).

UK: HTB1, HTB2. Record breaking consumer debt levels. UK debt now at 81% of GDP or something? Debt reduction targets kicked a couple of parliaments down the road.
US: Continued QE, wanted to stop, but due to stock market reaction, carried on, allbeit with a token change to the amounts.

We all know it's unsustainable (well most of us), and we all know that the majority within the system (us) are getting poorer as our spending power is slowly but surely ebbed away and we all get relatively worse off. There are some doing very well indeed, but they are not the majority and most are at the end of the working cycle.

Well reported over the year. 0.8% annual pay rises. Green taxes having to be removed from gas bills. Rebate given on water bills. Food banks usage now at record breaking highs.

Most of us have got lucky with some of our predictions, and most of us stick with them, the OP being no different, just pretty much saying the same thing will happen as last year if the status quo stays the same.

Become a bit of a mugs game trying to predict an outcome now. It's not so much predictions, rather getting lucky. This isn't really a cop out, I could list my own list of things I'm happy to guess at. What I'm saying is, if Greece hadn't been bailed out for the 57th time, if the US hadn't got the fiscal cliff thing through etc etc it would all be different now. The US has got the next problem within 2 months. No doubt the debt ceiling will simply be raised yet again, but there WILL come a point when one country, somewhere, has to stop dancing. I just don't know when that will be, and I don't know which country it will be. I do know it will change the landscape for us ALL. Hell even little London house prices falling back 5% in the year will have a MASSIVE effect on our average houe prices. The only reason they were just above water this last year is due to London. It doesn't take much to tip the balance, and every is macro economics.

Ceiling was raised again (was it twice?) and a deal struck to stop hitting the ceiling (for a while).

The US stopped fully functioning for around 3 weeks due to political shutdown over the issue in 2013.

Happy with mine. More debt and problems averted with even more debt. US shutdown being a prime example.

My predcition for 2014? Same.

michaels

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Happy with mine. More debt and problems averted with even more debt. US shutdown being a prime example.

My predcition for 2014? Same.

You seem to be complaining both that the deficit remains too high (resulting in too much debt) and that real incomes are falling, especially at the bottom. Care to postulate what would happen to real wages in the lowest quartile if the deficit were to be reduced more aggressively?!