The 2014 HAMISH MCTAVISH Predictions Thread

zagfles

Well that's a relief. I'd read predictions that continuing austerity policies would lead to a depression and the rise of fascism across Europe.

Loughton_Monkey

zagfles wrote: »

Well that's a relief. I'd read predictions that continuing austerity policies would lead to a depression and the rise of fascism across Europe.

If that's what you want, then here's yer man!

Having just been declared bankrupt, he will gladly accept your membership fee in cash.




http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-25590155

Some sort of divine retribution there no doubt. Send him a Tweet asking "How's that for a bit of forced austerity?"

kabayiri

16. Scotland will vote for independence, defying pundit predictions

17. A new independent Scotland will elect a new Housing and Immigration minister, an unknown "wildcard", a "Mr H McTavish"

18. Scotland will embark on a massive house building program, and leap up the European powerhouse economy league table due to having 500,000 monthly arrivals


I feel fully qualified in saying this because I live hundreds of miles away from Scotland

Jonbvn

I think they can't keep rates down again, so Ill guesstimate:

Interest rates 2%+

zagfles

kabayiri wrote: »

16. Scotland will vote for independence, defying pundit predictions

17. A new independent Scotland will elect a new Housing and Immigration minister, an unknown "wildcard", a "Mr H McTavish"

18. Scotland will embark on a massive house building program, and leap up the European powerhouse economy league table due to having 500,000 monthly arrivals


I feel fully qualified in saying this because I live hundreds of miles away from Scotland

19. Meanwhile England will continue with "austerity" policies, resulting in another recession, which turns into a depression.

20. UKIP voters will gradually drift towards the BNP, followed by disillusioned voters of other parties who've seen their house price fall.

21. The BNP will win the general election.

22. England will embark on a massive armament programme. Conscription is introduced. House prices near military bases rise. House prices elsewhere fall.

23. England invades and annexes Scotland, causing house prices there to go down 58.7%. The HPC crowd are jubilant and welcome the occupying troops.

Generali

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Well, 2013 turned out to be a pretty good year, and the 2013 predictions weren't far off the mark.

Results here....

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/4368647

Now on to the 2014 predictions.

Broadly a year of stronger economic recovery.

1. House prices will rise. Indices will range from +6 to +11
Maybe higher

2. FTB numbers will increase as HTB continues to enable more people to buy, and the wider lending markets continue to recover.
I think HTB may well be withdrawn/reduced in scope

3. Inflation will remain in a range between 1.5% and 2.5% for most of the year.
Agree, with a risk of disinflation due to Eurozone deflation.

4. Unemployment will fall to around 7%
Closer to 6% by end 2014 I reckon with pay rises being above CPI at least.

5. Interest rates will end the year at or below 1%
A rise in either base rates or a cut in QE (same thing)

6. Mortgage lending for new purchases will increase markedly and average around 70k per month for the year
No idea.

7. Rents will continue to increase at a similar rate to 2013 and reach another new record high
Nominal highs are a given in almost any market as we live in an inflationary world. Real highs? I have my doubts.

8. The north will see increasing HPI as the gap to London/SE starts to close.
London HPI above Northern HPI all year. The North still has a lot of relative pain to feel as Government spending stops rising.

9. Scotland will vote to remain in the UK, but it will be closer than the polls currently suggest thanks to a misguided blossoming of nationalism around the Commonwealth games
The vote will be a no contest. 60:40 to stay in the UK easily.

10. Economic recovery will strengthen with GDP +3.5% for the year
Agree

11. Politics: The Lib Dems will start to distance themselves from the Tories politically, The tories will pander to the right to try and prevent a UKIP resurgence, UKIP will do well at the Euro elections and then their 'protest vote' support will fade rapidly by year end as minds are focused on the real election that matters. As the economy recovers the gap between tories and labour will narrow.
UKIP will storm the Euros I reckon. I think there's a good chance they'll come second or even first in the vote. Most people hate the EU.

12. Average wages will increase by more than they did this year
Up, up and away by year end.

13. Private sector wage rises will match CPI by year end
Yup

And as outliers.....

14. London HPI and the wider lending market may become strong enough to warrant removing or tactically reducing HTB2 limits for London/SE, perhaps reducing the upper limit to 300K instead of 600K.

15. The Lib Dem/Tory coalition may become so strained by Conservative back bench panic at UKIP's results in the Euro elections that it becomes effectively unworkable before the scheduled end of the full term

Feel free to add your own predictions here, and we'll review once again in 12 months.

My outliers:

1. France to start to be mentioned in the same breath as Greece and Ireland.
2. UK & Italy to experience manufacturing renaissances.
3. GFC for China. Probably expressed via inflation in China due to the direct links between Government and local banks. The effect in the West was deflationary IMO.

My other predictions:

1. Oil and gas prices fall quickly: WTI below $80/bbl by year end (currently $95)
2. Gold down 25%
3. Bitcoin down a lot
4. UK manufacturing output up by 10% easily.

dryhat

Here's some predictions from 1964 looking 50 years ahead......

A visit to the world fair of 2014 by Isaac Asimov

IveSeenTheLight

dryhat wrote: »

Here's some predictions from 1964 looking 50 years ahead......

A visit to the world fair of 2014 by Isaac Asimov

Just skim reading, but many have been good predictions.

chucknorris

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Just skim reading, but many have been good predictions.

I'm overloaded with marking at the moment, so I too didn't read it fully (I've just about had it with reading for now), but it looked interesting when glancing at it.

dryhat

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Just skim reading, but many have been good predictions.

Apart from the bit about widespread use of nuclear fusion, it is quite accurate.