Nice People Thread Number 10 -the official residence of Nice People

chewmylegoff

michaels wrote: »

Can't imagine the Russians would run the Paralympics for any reason other than it is part of the deal so they wouldn't be too upset if it were 'overshadowed'. I also can not see the west having any strategic interest in the Ukraine to go to war.

Europe needs Russian gas so sanctions are extremely unlikely let alone military intervention.

I don't know much about Ukraine but political maps suggest that it might be partitioned eventually with the western half joining EU and the pro-Russian Eastern part becoming a Russian satellite.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

I rather suspect Crimea is now lost, at best it will become a self governing autonomous region of Ukraine, at worst an independent state. Either way, wholly under de-facto Russian control.

I doubt even Ukraine will start an all out war over Crimea, and I suspect by the way Russia have handled the 'invasion' (being careful to ensure it's bloodless so far so as not to provoke things), Russia has made the same calculation.

The real challenge for Western powers and Ukraine itself is the Eastern regions of Ukraine. No matter what, if Russia tries to annexe these, Ukraine will go to war..... Even though it knows it will probably lose.

But that's the real red line for an all out shooting war on the doorstep of the EU and Nato.

Lets hope calmer heads prevail.

lostinrates

Right.....dog dog needs a bath before her op on Tuesday so off we go......


Ginger and pink grapefruit sounds quite good before an op doesn't it.....zingy and refreshing and clean and not like the vets? It has a matching dog perfume for a top up later in the week.

tomterm8

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

I rather suspect Crimea is now lost, at best it will become a self governing autonomous region of Ukraine, at worst an independent state. Either way, wholly under de-facto Russian control.

I doubt even Ukraine will start an all out war over Crimea, and I suspect by the way Russia have handled the 'invasion' (being careful to ensure it's bloodless so far so as not to provoke things), Russia has made the same calculation.

The real challenge for Western powers and Ukraine itself is the Eastern regions of Ukraine. No matter what, if Russia tries to annexe these, Ukraine will go to war..... Even though it knows it will probably lose.

But that's the real red line for an all out shooting war on the doorstep of the EU and Nato.

Lets hope calmer heads prevail.

Russia probably doesn't want to take Crimea. It probably wants to protect its deep sea port and military installations, which are essential to it.

Maybe Russia will end up with Crimea by accident, in which case it's likely to end up with a decade of bloodshed as terrorist groups funded by outside interests wreck havoc, and give it a deep sea port next to a hostile country that might very well offer America a base...

neverdespairgirl

Looking on the bright side, I don't think we're about to shell Constantinople, and invade Balaclava and Sevastapol.

But it's a real mess, and if I didn't have family etc there, I'd stay well away. I'd also stay away from eastern Poland, too, to be on the safe side.

When mate and I went to Ukraine and Russia at the end of the 1990s, we got a bus east from Krakow, crossed the border (sloooooowly) and then stayed in Lvov for a few days before going on to Kiev, and later by train to Moscow. None of that would be a Good Idea at the moment!

vivatifosi

neverdespairgirl wrote: »

But it's a real mess, and if I didn't have family etc there, I'd stay well away. I'd also stay away from eastern Poland, too, to be on the safe side.

Kaliningrad? I've been wondering about that.

vivatifosi

Found this article from the BBC. About aborigine gardening and how they used to keep areas cleared for hunting prior to the settlers. Suggests a rethink in terms of Australian flora that would also help fire prevention:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-26174177

neverdespairgirl

vivatifosi wrote: »

Kaliningrad? I've been wondering about that.

I was thinking more of the parts of southern Poland I know fairly well - such as Lublin, Zamosc, etc.

Kaliningrad is part of Russia, and has all the same visa restrictions etc, so I've never had the pleasure. I'd certainly stay away from the actual place at the moment, though.

CKhalvashi

michaels wrote: »

Can't imagine the Russians would run the Paralympics for any reason other than it is part of the deal so they wouldn't be too upset if it were 'overshadowed'. I also can not see the west having any strategic interest in the Ukraine to go to war.

Standing back on the West would split Ukraine in 3, possibly more pieces.

This is going to be a sensitive issue of getting Ukraine to thrash out its interests with both Russia and EU.

This is going to be dangerous though, whichever way it is to be done, and the issue here is that Tymoshenko should never have left power.

This is a sensitive issue to deal in time limited situation.

zagubov

neverdespairgirl wrote: »

I was thinking more of the parts of southern Poland I know fairly well - such as Lublin, Zamosc, etc.

Kaliningrad is part of Russia, and has all the same visa restrictions etc, so I've never had the pleasure. I'd certainly stay away from the actual place at the moment, though.

I think some people here have mentioned connections with Lvov which might have been in the Ukraine.

I also remember some sports tournament some time ago where people had travelled from Poland to the Ukraine and thinking "that's a real journey" and then being shocked to find they shared a common border.