1. Beware recession scaremongering -Sage advice!

Conrad

AndyGuil wrote: »

Unfortunately none are growing at their expected rate. Many countries including the UK are seeing a real threat to their outlook.

4.5% world growth in 2011 might indicate we have traction to somewhere?

US unemployment is falling, the BRICS are booming, Indonesia, Morocco, Vietnam and dozens of others are booming.

Europe has some awful deadwood to sort. My own opinion is that we are too entitled and featherbedded to make the necessary reforms, but even some some parts of Europe are growing nicely, it's not all certain gloom.

In otherwirds it's a very mixed picture globally, but I suspect Britian is slowly but surely heading back up the growth slope. Not bad really.

Graham_Devon

Conrad, I don't really care too much about world growth. That's not saying I don't "care", but it's not something that has an overwhleming interest to me. Neither, does it seem to for the rest of the forum.

I'm interested in what's affecting my family, myself, my job first and foremost.

If you have an issue with this, then you have an issue with the WHOLE forum. You don't pop out on every "house prices have risen" thread and suggest we should look at whats happening in the world. You just state "turning the corner, green shoots, the bears are pathologicial in their mindset".

Forever changing the data I should look at to please you is getting boring.

I'm bored of the thread in all honesty, as it seems a pointless point scoring exercise achievening nothing. If you don't like what I post, put me on ignore, as you cannot change it.

I wouldn't even say I doom monger, I mainly post real time data....just data YOU and your other rose tinted chums don't particularly like. I say when I'm wrong. I admit a mistake. What i won't do is change my whole outlook to suit you.

Conrad

AndyGuil wrote: »

The two main things I have done are avoid debt

I have to say my wealthy clients have been getting more cheap debt and aquiring assets. Yes they know rates will rise.

AndyGuil

Conrad wrote: »

4.5% world growth in 2011 might indicate we have traction to somewhere?

US unemployment is falling, the BRICS are booming, Indonesia, Morocco, Vietnam and dozens of others are booming.

Europe has some awful deadwood to sort. My own opinion is that we are too entitled and featherbedded to make the necessary reforms, but even some some parts of Europe are growing nicely, it's not all certain gloom.

In otherwirds it's a very mixed picture globally, but I suspect Britian is slowly but surely heading back up the growth slope. Not bad really.

Until the UK and the rest correct completely then they will not enjoy any boom. The larger growth economies have a great advantage because they never had a boom to come down from. It is a shift if you like, just we are the ones pulling it down now.

AndyGuil

Conrad wrote: »

I have to say my wealthy clients have been getting more cheap debt and aquiring assets. Yes they know rates will rise.

As you point out debt won't stay cheap. I have a longer term focus. Acquiring assets are fine, just a balanced approach of which you understand what to invest and how it works. I have a mix of cash, assets and equities. I am fortunate with equities to be able to diversify into much more different areas.

Conrad

Graham_Devon wrote: »

I'm interested in what's affecting my family, myself, my job first and foremost.

A baby is affected by what it's Mom does. The UK's destiny is a function of the rest of the world. Why ignore booming overseas nations - we can trade with them? That DOES affect your family.



If you don't like what I post, put me on ignore, as you cannot change it.

I never said I didn't like what you post. Likes don't form any part of anything here.

I wouldn't even say I doom monger, I mainly post real time data....just data

I don't know about this real time data posting. My perception is that you think the world you inhabit is nothing like what it should be like. That the UK is like a beached whale, largely hopeless.


What i won't do is change my whole outlook to suit you.

I'll change my outlook as the facts dictate. You must do what suits you.

,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

Conrad

AndyGuil wrote: »

As you point out debt won't stay cheap. I have a longer term focus. Acquiring assets are fine, just a balanced approach of which you understand what to invest and how it works. I have a mix of cash, assets and equities. I am fortunate with equities to be able to diversify into much more different areas.

I've long invested in equities. I think I'm going to sell em all and get back into B2L. I like control of my destiny.

If the world really did go belly up (see I can be pessimistic), bits of paper won't get me anywhere. Go back to the Buebonic plague - landlords survived by still being able to get at least some rent. With high populations now, I consider rental income to be just about as safe as it gets, I don't feel that safe investing cash in banks, what if they all implode?

AT THE VERY LEAST I CAN EXCHANGE PROPERTY USE FOR CHICKENS AND LEEKS. WHAT COULD YOU EXCHANGE BITS OF PAPER FOR?

shortchanged_2

Good afternoon everyone.

Conrad

AndyGuil wrote: »

Until the UK and the rest correct completely then they will not enjoy any boom.

You don't know that. The UK hadn't corrected by a long chalk in 1981/2 when things really got motoring again.

We are rebalancing slowly and are following a structured plan to keep interest low, we have great Universities, are still innovating and have every chance of trading our way through this.

Sure there's downside risk, but it's far from certain we wont boom again.

My hunch is we will be booming far sooner than we think.

AndyGuil

Conrad wrote: »

You don't know that. The UK hadn't corrected by a long chalk in 1981/2 when things really got motoring again.

We are rebalancing slowly and are following a structured plan to keep interest low, we have great Universities, are still innovating and have every chance of trading our way through this.

Sure there's downside risk, but it's far from certain we wont boom again.

My hunch is we will be booming far sooner than we think.

The slate was still quite clean back then with a lot of liquidity and debt available to allow a major market drive through the 80s and then as the constraints came away, especially in 97 onwards the economy just cooked itself and here we are. This time we have China and co. to take it all away. We are stuck with low liquidity, inflation, unsustainable debt and expensive commodities. As things correct then the outlook can improve.