1. Beware recession scaremongering -Sage advice!

Conrad

AndyGuil wrote: »

Pessism is not realism and neither is optimism. They are emotions. Take the emotions out and it is easier to see (for some take the rose tints off too!)

Are you finding it easy to see then?

What are you seeing? Upside and downside please, afterall you say you've got the emmotions switched off. So include a summary founded on all the evidence, for example that more of the world is booming than declining.

Conrad

AndyGuil wrote: »

The pressure placed on the economy are in excess of its capability to grow

Sorry Andy this is a bit wooley, can you be specific?

AndyGuil

Conrad wrote: »

Yes I agree, but what about the other side of the coin, which tells us much of the world is booming?
Why take notice of the downside and largely ignore the upside, is that realistic?

The UK is not a part of the growing economy countries. Those that are have their own issues (such as China losing some momentum). Unfortunately the UK has had its growth and it is the turn of the other countries. The real threat is another credit crunch as debt gets expensive. The AAA rating keeps debt relatively cheap for the UK, but it is under threat. The Eurozone is a major threat and will cause a much bigger problem when it fails some more. UK is heavily exposed to this. The upside is, when all of it is over there will be another boom. The critical point is that there has to be a fall for a boom, can't have one without the other.

Mr._Pricklepants

Conrad wrote: »

What specific information tells you the slope is pointing down?

Would you have known in lets say July 1980, that the slope was infact turning upwards?

How would a realist have known slope direction in July 1980?

wotsthat made an excellent post on this in another thread, sadly drowned out by the usual forumonics by that Devon bloke, but worth re-quoting;

wotsthat wrote: »

You've quite clearly not found a plot of GDP vs time since the start of the recession in 2008. If you had you would have seen the trend.

P.S. plotting GDP Q4 2011 and GDP Q1 2012, joining the two dots together isn't the best way to spot a trend.

Have a look here http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/datablog/2009/nov/25/gdp-uk-1948-growth-economy

The UK economy looked to have started improving from Q3 2009. You'll note from the full table that there have been a number of minus quarterly figures - that's the volatility I talked about. You'll also note the graph is shallow - that's the slow recovery I mentioned.

AndyGuil

Conrad wrote: »

Sorry Andy this is a bit wooley, can you be specific?

We are the latest of a number of countries to re-enter a recession. Even worse the economy never recovered from the first one.

Conrad

Graham_Devon wrote: »

How can you say the next leg down is wrong, when we have just entered back into recesssion and house prices are indeed falling (even by not much?).

Have we been more in recession or mild gorwth the last 2 years?
Why not focuss on the fact we've spent more time growing than declining?

Europe is ur biggest worry, but even that is not necessarily a gloomy lane, more cpaital will come to our shores if for example the French embark on Tax n spend and regulate and if Spain goes down.

My prediction - gradual growth in the main but perhaps some nasty bumps from Europe, but hey ho, life goes on, we've billions of years in front of us (not just on Earth), this is a tiny footnote.

AndyGuil

Conrad wrote: »

Are you finding it easy to see then?

What are you seeing? Upside and downside please, afterall you say you've got the emmotions switched off. So include a summary founded on all the evidence, for example that more of the world is booming than declining.

I see an economy that is constrained because it is not liquid. It is volatile and exposed to too much risk. There will be parts that will benefit such as exports, in future. For now only parts that have completed their correction will have any upwards outlook. The overall outlook is negative.

Conrad

AndyGuil wrote: »

We are the latest of a number of countries to re-enter a recession. Even worse the economy never recovered from the first one.

Many more nations are in growth than recession, what weighting did you attatch to this fact?

AndyGuil

Conrad wrote: »

Have we been more in recession or mild gorwth the last 2 years?
Why not focuss on the fact we've spent more time growing than declining?

Europe is ur biggest worry, but even that is not necessarily a gloomy lane, more cpaital will come to our shores if for example the French embark on Tax n spend and regulate and if Spain goes down.

My prediction - gradual growth in the main but perhaps some nasty bumps from Europe, but hey ho, life goes on, we've billions of years in front of us (not just on Earth), this is a tiny footnote.

France is a major economy and it is at risk of pulling the Eurozone apart if it drives out business.

AndyGuil

Conrad wrote: »

Many more nations are in growth than recession, what weighting did you attatch to this fact?

Many are flat lining (i.e. less than 2%) or declining. None are achieving what they should be. Growth is not the driving factor and only an aspect. For example it won't stop the Eurozone coming apart (unless it is increases greatly).