1. Beware recession scaremongering -Sage advice!

RenovationMan

A dose of common sense from Martin in this article.

http://www.moneysavingexpert.com/news/banking/2012/05/time-to-recession-proof-your-finances?utm_source=forum&utm_medium=sidebar&utm_campaign=box

1. Beware recession scaremongering. Recession reflects what's already happened, it's not a prediction. So the announcement we're now in one doesn't change a thing. Unlike past recessions when things plummeted, this time the economy's flatlined for years, so it's likely to be more of the same.
   
   So focus on your circumstances. If you've a stable job in a strong company, little's changed. If redundancy looms, preparation's crucial. If you're on benefits or unemployed, it's about continuing the struggle.

Conrad

In general bearish types tend to overly fixate on downside and as such attach great weighting to potential risk.

This tends to make them poor predictors. Remember how they told us from about 05 - 2010 that the landlords would capitulate, that millions of amateur LL's would throw in the towell, that this would lead to a wall of repossessed flats comming to market. They were blindsided by thier fixation of downside without taking a step back to see the bigger picture.

In fact the very opposite of thier prediction occurred, B2L lending books are rock solid performers compared to other lending categories.

wotsthat

Offline I actively avoid doom mongers.

Twice I've been told by a colleague that things are so grim that 30% of mortgage holders are using Wonga just be able to pay the mortgage. I'm waiting for them to tell me that most mortage holders are having to go on enforced diets to pay the mortage. These views are based on flawed interpretations of flawed headlines that have been written by journalists too lazy or stupid to spot the bias that's been spoonfed to them by VI surveys.

I call him Graham (or shortchanged) BTW and generally say we must be living in a bubble of plenty because when I ask friends if they've lost weight they generally put it down to getting in trim for the next holiday rather than starving themselves to pay the mortgage. When I ask 'Graham' how many people he knows that are struggling to such an extent he says none but that's because of QE or benefits. I politely leave him mumbling by the kettle happy in his own misery.

RenovationMan

Conrad wrote: »

In general bearish types tend to overly fixate on downside and as such attach great weighting to potential risk.

This tends to make them poor predictors. Remember how they told us from about 05 - 2010 that the landlords would capitulate, that millions of amateur LL's would throw in the towell, that this would lead to a wall of repossessed flats comming to market. They were blindsided by thier fixation of downside without taking a step back to see the bigger picture.

In fact the very opposite of thier prediction occurred, B2L lending books are rock solid performers compared to other lending categories.

It also must make them very indecisive. To have to analyse everything to the Nth degree, must leave them frozen in case they make a wrong decision. I remember one bearish type on here 'rubbish' my finanial strategy of downsizing because I might get a divorce, die, be wiped out by some sort of anarchic insurrection/alien invasion, etc.

My view is that you can only really plan for the most likely eventualities. I therefore have cover for job loss and long-term illness which are by far the more likely events that could impact my long-term financial strategy.

I actually feel sorry for the likes of devon, shortchanged and thrugilmir. They just don't see to be enjoying life very much. It must be quite depressing to always be looking for the negative spin on everything.

mystic_trev

Conrad wrote: »

In general bearish types tend to overly fixate on downside and as such attach great weighting to potential risk.

Well I'm not seeing any Green shoots.

Conrad wrote: »

The economy is turning around fast - you won't percieve this as your mind filters out upswing evidence and only files downside evidence.

I can't be @ssed to go into the evidence this time as it will fall on deaf ears.

All I'll say is, remember these words - by summer this year the new prosperity era will be underway and plenty of green shoot (ah yes those shoots) will be visible by then.

Of course you will dismiss this nonsense, afterall your'e a realist right:beer:, neg heads are always realists:rotfl:

Graham_Devon

All these threads trying to mock others with groups of people huddling together to have a pop.... getting a little tiring in all honesty.

What's the deal? Those you mock don't care. It seems the only people that care are those desperate to mock.

Conrad, you like psycology...what does this tell you?

How many times have you told us the economy is turning? You were on who stated there wouldn't even be a downturn.

chucky

Graham_Devon wrote: »

All these threads trying to mock others with groups of people huddling together to have a pop.... getting a little tiring in all honesty.

What's the deal? Those you mock don't care. It seems the only people that care are those desperate to mock.

Conrad, you like psycology...what does this tell you?

How many times have you told us the economy is turning? You were on who stated there wouldn't even be a downturn.

Relax my friend, it's only an internet forum with about 12 people reading the forum at a time.. Don't take it so seriously, there are more important things in life than being right on an internet forum...

Conrad

Graham_Devon wrote: »

All these threads trying to mock others with groups of people huddling together to have a pop.... getting a little tiring in all honesty.

What's the deal? Those you mock don't care. It seems the only people that care are those desperate to mock.

Conrad, you like psycology...what does this tell you?

How many times have you told us the economy is turning? You were on who stated there wouldn't even be a downturn.

'No downturn' - not me, I sold my B2L's in 2006, which I regret btw, as I was so certain the crash was due. In 2009 I said price wouldn't drop further, which here where I am is the case, not so everywhere though. But even if prices did drop a bit, so waht, mortgages are cheap, life goes on and affordability remains a reality right accross this isle.

You keep asserting people are mocking, but this at least on my part is not so. What I feebly try and do is raise your consciousness such that you might end up as one of those people able to raise up above thier robotoscised instinctive brain imprints and thus see the world in a more balanced manner.

The general thrust of your narrative is that things are bad and gloomy, yet can you not see how incredibly lucky us Brits are?


WHAT MORE DO YOU WANT?

AndyGuil

There is a big difference between pessimism and being realistic. Unfortunately the economy is a mess and not improving.

ILW

A few more pessimists in power in the early to mid 2000s, may have stopped the whole crisis happening.

FTBFun

ILW wrote: »

A few more pessimists in power in the early to mid 2000s, may have stopped the whole crisis happening.

A few pessimists would have stopped missold US subprime debt? How does that work?