1. Beware recession scaremongering -Sage advice!

RenovationMan

AndyGuil wrote: »

They should look around and see the World. Currently the UK is vulnerable.

Do you think many scaremongers/doommongers actually do look around the world? Even when they do, they only seem to look at the parts that are doing badly.

Out of interest, do you think it's more important to spend you time researching how to prevent reduction in your net wealth or researching how to increase your net wealth?

ILW

FTBFun wrote: »

Hang on - are you saying incessantly spamming internet forums isn't a useful plan of action?

Good lord.

Think Twitter is the way to go for getting to to the decision makers.

AndyGuil

RenovationMan wrote: »

Do you think many scaremongers/doommongers actually do look around the world? Even when they do, they only seem to look at the parts that are doing badly.

Out of interest, do you think it's more important to spend you time researching how to prevent reduction in your net wealth or researching how to increase to increase your net wealth?

A balance of research is complimentary. There are risks that should be identified and there are opportunities that must be weighed. The balance is the ideal path. The issue at the moment is there are a lot of negative aspects that are unavoidable and they can damage any opportunities. The rewards must be worth the risk and this is why we see corrections.

Conrad

AndyGuil wrote: »

Many are flat lining (i.e. less than 2%) or declining. None are achieving what they should be.

The table below gives recent percentage values for overall GWP growth,as well as estimates for the near future, according to the InternationalMonetary Fund (IMF)'s 2011 World Economic Outlookdatabase. Data is given in terms of constant year-on-year prices, based on purchasing powerparity.[4][5][6][7]

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

World
5.1
5.2
3.0
-0.5
5.1
4.3
4.5
Advanced economies
3.0
2.7
0.6
-3.4
3.0
2.2
2.6
Euro area
2.9
2.7
0.7
-4.1
1.8
2.0
1.7
USA
2.7
2.1
0.4
-2.6
2.9
2.5
2.7
Developing countries
7.9
8.3
6.0
2.8
7.4
6.6
6.4


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gross_world_product

wotsthat

AndyGuil wrote: »

I see an economy that is constrained because it is not liquid. It is volatile and exposed to too much risk. There will be parts that will benefit such as exports, in future. For now only parts that have completed their correction will have any upwards outlook. The overall outlook is negative.

Have you taken any steps to protect yourself that you can share?

Graham_Devon

Conrad wrote: »

Have we been more in recession or mild gorwth the last 2 years?
Why not focuss on the fact we've spent more time growing than declining?

I think I get what you are saying now.

Basically, we were wrong to suggest that the economy would fall back. If we did so, we were pathological.

The economy fell back, so now we have to ignore that, and concentrate on the fact that the economy had anaemic growth for a few quarters.

Basically, all you want us / me to do, is ignore anything that isn't positive, even if that means ignoring the actual data. If I don't do this, you will come up with all manner of ways of describing my mental state. Fair enough. I can live with that!

One thing though. Closed minds work both ways.

AndyGuil

Conrad wrote: »

The table below gives recent percentage values for overall GWP growth,as well as estimates for the near future, according to the InternationalMonetary Fund (IMF)'s 2011 World Economic Outlookdatabase. Data is given in terms of constant year-on-year prices, based on purchasing powerparity.[4][5][6][7]

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

World
5.1
5.2
3.0
-0.5
5.1
4.3
4.5
Advanced economies
3.0
2.7
0.6
-3.4
3.0
2.2
2.6
Euro area
2.9
2.7
0.7
-4.1
1.8
2.0
1.7
USA
2.7
2.1
0.4
-2.6
2.9
2.5
2.7
Developing countries
7.9
8.3
6.0
2.8
7.4
6.6
6.4


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gross_world_product

Unfortunately none are growing at their expected rate. Many countries including the UK are seeing a real threat to their outlook.

Conrad

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Basically, we were wrong to suggest that the economy would fall back. If we did so, we were pathological.


No, I sold my B2L's in 2006 as I thought it would fall.

The economy fell back, so now we have to ignore that, and concentrate on the fact that the economy had anaemic growth for a few quarters.

No, anaemic growth must be considered of course.




Basically, all you want us / me to do, is ignore anything that isn't positive, even if that means ignoring the actual data.

No, consider all the data and trends, not focus one way or tuther. Don't seek out downside data at the exclusion of the rest. So for example take note that world growth for 2011 was 4.5%, and thats in tougher climbs.


One thing though. Closed minds work both ways.

..................

DpchMd

Graham_Devon wrote: »

I think I get what you are saying now.

Basically, we were wrong to suggest that the economy would fall back. If we did so, we were pathological.

The economy fell back, so now we have to ignore that, and concentrate on the fact that the economy had anaemic growth for a few quarters.

Basically, all you want us / me to do, is ignore anything that isn't positive, even if that means ignoring the actual data. If I don't do this, you will come up with all manner of ways of describing my mental state. Fair enough. I can live with that!

One thing though. Closed minds work both ways.

I have a positive outlook but I believe that house prices and economic growth will continue to trend downwards for the foreseeable future.

What does that make me?

AndyGuil

wotsthat wrote: »

Have you taken any steps to protect yourself that you can share?

The two main things I have done are avoid debt and rearranged my stock portfolio. The shift towards already corrected parts of the market and avoid long term exposure to high risk shares. I still have a core holding that are long term, but I have shifted strategy to trade technically in others. Not for the faint hearted unfortunately!