Halifax - June mom + 1.2%

mystic_trev

http://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/media/pdfs/2011/HousePriceIndexJune2011.pdf

Generali

It certainly is:

http://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/media/pdfs/2011/HousePriceIndexJune2011.pdf

Generali says:
Up 1.2% for the month
Down 0.5% comparing the average price in the last 3 months with the average of the previous 3 months (this is on a downward trend)
Down 3.5% on the year (this seems to be fluctuating but showing gentle ongoing declines in nominal terms)
Year on year prices if they stay on this trend should flatten out once the exceptional fall of 3.7% in September 2010 falls out.

My guess is that the current trend is set to continue for some time unless (or perhaps until):
- There is a proper sovereign default
- Inflation starts getting out of hand (say RPIX up to about 6-7%)
- Base rates rise quickly

DervProf

The report mentions "a slowly improving economy".

Maybe I'm wrong, but I don't see or hear many, if any signs of an improving economy.

Maybe they mean "slowly improving lending criteria".


Anyway, I'm quite suprised that June saw a >1% increase, let alone any increase. Having said that, monthly figures seem to be quite erratic so I doubt this is a clear sign of "recovery".

Really2

DervProf wrote: »

The report mentions "a slowly improving economy".

Maybe I'm wrong, but I don't see or hear many, if any signs of an improving economy.

Maybe they mean "slowly improving lending criteria".


Anyway, I'm quite suprised that June saw a >1% increase, let alone any increase. Having said that, monthly figures seem to be quite erratic so I doubt this is a clear sign of "recovery".

There was some good news on the service sector, but the average user on here is not in reality usually on the look out for good news.:)

Rinoa

mystic_trev wrote: »

http://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/media/pdfs/2011/HousePriceIndexJune2011.pdf

Not totally surprising. Halifax has been out of kilter with Nationwide and LR for some time and this will go some way to correcting that divergence.

Halifax also revised last months +0.1% to +0.4%

DervProf

Really2 wrote: »

There was some good news on the service sector, but the average user on here is not in reality usually on the look out for good news.:)

I don't go looking for good or bad news. I watch/listen to the news and listen to friends and people that I meet, then draw my own conclusions (right or wrong).

Talking to someone the other day who works in retail (not shop floor, head office). Since the royal wedding, business has dropped off dramatically. A friend works in car manufacturing, work is very slow at the moment. A customer who I am seeing in a few days time has also seen a large drop off in trade. According to news reports I hear or read, the service sector is up and down at the moment, so my conclusion is that things are pretty flat, if not declining slightly.

Batchy

They use a standardised 3 month rolling average figure for the monthly number, so any upturn takes time to feed back through following declines.

Interesting to see 2011 low was in april time around 161k!

But the figure is trending UP, up to 163k.

So from June 2010 165k to June 2011 163k... the fact there are record low mortgage rates available STILL, and you can pay lower mortgage payments than you can rent IF YOU HAVE A DEPOSIT. in 12 months you will pay down a lot more capital than you are losing on the value of the average house, and saving cash flow over the same rents.

So, even though house prices ARE falling (slightly...or stagnating, depending on who you talk to) it still wasnt a bad thing to buy 12 months ago. If you had the choice, if you never than there is no point justifying it either way as the option wasnt there.

Its still noisy out there, and the trend im seeing is people are being careful and buying sensibly, and jumping a rung on the housing market, bad if you have a terrace or a flat, not so bad if you have a nice semi or a detached thats very price rangy, ie 3 beds.

Turnbull2000

Give it a few months and we'll be back to positive territory. Not only that, asking prices should rise by quite a bit as expectations of house prices rises become widely entrenched again.

Graham_Devon

Halifax state themselves that the market is able to continue due to low interest rates:

The housing market is facing "significant headwinds" despite prices rising slightly in June, according to the Halifax.

The lender, which is now part of Lloyds Banking Group, said that low pay rises, higher taxes and inflation were all constraining demand from buyers.

But it said low interest rates had maintained housing market stability.

We are just in limbo.

And no doubt will be for quite some time yet.

Generali

DervProf wrote: »

I don't go looking for good or bad news. I watch/listen to the news and listen to friends and people that I meet, then draw my own conclusions (right or wrong).

Talking to someone the other day who works in retail (not shop floor, head office). Since the royal wedding, business has dropped off dramatically. A friend works in car manufacturing, work is very slow at the moment. A customer who I am seeing in a few days time has also seen a large drop off in trade. According to news reports I hear or read, the service sector is up and down at the moment, so my conclusion is that things are pretty flat, if not declining slightly.

The plural of annecdote isn't data.

The data show that car production is up 4.7% on the year (link - tab 4.1d) and retail sales are up 2.8% on the year (link - tab 5.1). Services turnover increaed by 6.1% in the year to April 2011 (link).

FTBFun

Generali wrote: »

The plural of annecdote isn't data.

The data show that car production is up 4.7% on the year (link - tab 4.1d) and retail sales are up 2.8% on the year (link - tab 5.1). Services turnover increaed by 6.1% in the year to April 2011 (link).

Yeah but you can prove anything with facts.