What next for North Africa/Middle East?

PeterZ_2

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

In all these cases though, it's unlikely major political change will result in any significant improvement in quality of life for the citizens... And in many cases will result in a significant worse situation that may take decades to resolve.

Out of the frying pan and into the fire for most, I'm afraid.

Very, very true. Sometimes its better the devil you know. Some of these countries need a powerful (brutal?) leader to keep them under control. With the massive oil wealth these countries hold the people should be wealthy, but the spread of wealth is un even.

Its something that has been going on for many years in central Africa (where I have spent time working in the past). One government is ousted only to be replaced by another greedy and corrupt leader.

And lets face it, the only reason we are all so aware of the troubles in Libya are because of the oil. Otherwise, who would really care? I'm sure Obama would not have been so quick to respond otherwise.

vivatifosi

PeterZ wrote: »

And lets face it, the only reason we are all so aware of the troubles in Libya are because of the oil. Otherwise, who would really care? I'm Obama would not have been so quick to respond otherwise.

Oil is important, but I think there is more to it than that, certainly from the EU's standpoint.

Libya has been one of the main departure points for people trafficking from Sub-Saharan Africa. We've seen the problems that boat-people from Sub-Saharan Africa have caused to Tenerife. We've also seen boat people escaping from Tunisia to Italy. Imagine if the whole region goes up as well as parts of the Middle East, masses will try to get out and where will they want to come to.

Further if there is a power vacuum that leaves space for Al Qaeda. I'm uncomfortable with their coming ever closer to Europe but the other side of the Med, that would be really dangerous.

Finally there has always been an interconnectedness among the countries around the Med. The Phoenicians taught us our alphabet. The Romans left great cities such as Carthage, Dougga and Leptis Magna there. The Moors invaded Spain. France the UK and Italy ruled their colonies. In World War II North Africa was one of the fronts. We have a long history of one impacting on the other.

lostinrates

vivatifosi wrote: »

So it is possible to evacuate many of the workers by ship - or from Tripoli because there is a commercial airport open - but those inland in the oilfields, well that was always going to be a tricky issue as going in required a breach of Libya's airspace.

I don't think that's really why the boats went....bt it sounds a bit crack pot, so I'll wait and see.

A further problem I have is with the assumption everyone working in the oilfields is an expat. For sure many will be. However I have friends who work for major oil companies who live in places like the Netherlands and UK and pay the taxes there but because of their technical expertise often get called out to oil rigs in the middle of nowhere. Some of these types of people will surely have been caught up in the evacuation.

Very fair point...but I think mine is too. I know when people we know get the opportunity to work tax free the glee is extreme...and they are often the smug ''we take nothing types'' as opposed to the practical ''we take nothing types''...ultimately, when it comes to being eligible for getting something they want it. so I accept this is a biased view point from personal social circle!:o

re evacuation flights I haven't been on one. we were offered to be shipped off a place when I was about 8 in a weather situation, but my parents felt the risk was minimal..they were right luckily....and the interest value of being on the ground worth it. Also hoping to be of use if needed...they weren't.

vivatifosi

lostinrates wrote: »

I don't think that's really why the boats went....bt it sounds a bit crack pot, so I'll wait and see.

I don't know why they sent the boats lir. If it was because they had troops on, maybe, but some were ferries. I just don't know. It's a difficult issue with Gaddafi because you can't second guess a madman who we think is capable of bringing down commercial flights and doesn't bat an eyelid at loss of life.

vivatifosi

lostinrates wrote: »

Very fair point...but I think mine is too. I know when people we know get the opportunity to work tax free the glee is extreme...and they are often the smug ''we take nothing types'' as opposed to the practical ''we take nothing types''...ultimately, when it comes to being eligible for getting something they want it. so I accept this is a biased view point from personal social circle!:o

I don't know about tax exiles lir. I would like to think that a British passport does give a certain degree of comfort to those caught in a war zone, because other people could be doing humanitarian work without paying UK taxes and I'd want them to have an equal right to evacuation. It's a difficult situation that's not clear cut imo. But then none of this is clear cut, which is what makes it so interesting and people's opinions equally valid. We can debate but none of us know where any of this is going, for this is likely only the start of something that we will be living with for years to come. It is scary and fascinating at the same time.

amcluesent

>We have a long history of one impacting on the other.<

Kiddies in school today will be the foot-soldiers in the inevitable Clash of Civilisations. We've fought off those following fascist dogmas of hate before, will we win this time?

globalds

I posted on this thread almost a month ago ...then lost track of it.

So today I have read it all, very interesting reading.

It seems we all underestimated the ability of the protesters in the initial posts.

I was due to fly to Tripoli on Wednesday to conduct some tests . I pay Tax in UK and the work would have been for a British property development company.
So I am probably a bit more attentive to the situation than normal.

I did not think about the effect of migrant wages not being sent home. This could really impact already very poor countries.

Refugees is not an issue yet. But once the dust settles and the losers are stuck for options then exodus may be a better choice than staying.

On a positive note all these new faces in power will mean our politicians have a fairly clean sheet and maybe things like Wikileaks will persuade them to make some more honourable decisions about who they climb in bed with....Maybe that is too much to hope for.

One more thing.

Hamish What was the other country with a lower over capacity than the UK ?

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

globalds wrote: »

Hamish What was the other country with a lower over capacity than the UK ?

Australia.....

vivatifosi

globalds wrote: »

I was due to fly to Tripoli on Wednesday to conduct some tests . I pay Tax in UK and the work would have been for a British property development company.

I'm glad you're here and safe globalds.

vivatifosi

Interesting business development today. FT's owner Pearson has had to seek legal advice as just over 3% of its shares are owned by the Libyan Investment Authority.

"It is abhorrent to us what is happening in Libya and we have made it clear we are uncomfortable with the holding," said Marjorie Scardino, chief executive of Pearson. "We are in a terrible position, it is abhorrent for everyone at Pearson. We do not know what the freeze notice covers at this point."

http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2011/feb/28/libya-pearson-financial-times