What next for North Africa/Middle East?

vivatifosi

diable wrote: »

At the end of the day it means we pay more for goods, petrol, utilities and slide deeper in to the preverbal .....................

I agree and I'm not normally in the amcluescent camp. It is very scary.

Kohoutek

vivatifosi wrote: »

I agree and I'm not normally in the amcluescent camp. It is very scary.

Not nearly as scary as the long term outlook for the Middle East.

In Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Libya, Algeria, Syria, Bahrain etc, oil is maybe 30% GDP, 70% of government revenue, 95% of exports. Oil pays for huge subsidies on fuel and (imported) food, free social services, no taxes on income or consumption. Oil powers the transport network (taxis and buses, no electric trains), provides fresh water (desalination plants) and electricity generation.

Years from now, when these countries hit zero net oil exports due to depletion, what is their future?

posh*spice

A really interesting 3 minute piece from Niall Ferguson. No democracy for the Middle East and oil at $200

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ELuU34uV46A

vivatifosi

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

There's no way Bahrain will fall. Headquarters of the US 5th fleet in the Gulf. Strong subversive Iranian influence in the Shiite majority. The Saudi's would invade before they let that happen.

This will be the line in the sand.

Blimey Hamish. You are good at this. Can you pick me 6 numbers for the weekend lottery please?

Brits are now being told to leave the Bahrain unless they have absolutely pressing reasons to stay. You told me this would happen, you told me the Saudis would be invited in (granted not in this exact quote but can't find the other one). It is very scary. This would get way more airtime if it wasn't for the justifiably important lead story from Japan. I can remember few times in my life that two such massive stories have run in parallel like this.

lostinrates

vivatifosi wrote: »

It is very scary. This would get way more airtime if it wasn't for the justifiably important lead story from Japan. I can remember few times in my life that two such massive stories have run in parallel like this.

It is indeed very scary. And confusing.

I can't help but feel the terrible situation in Japan has in a way eased political pressure..and by that I mean media and perception... on the western leaders...who its fair to say seemed contradictory and confused at times over the middle eastern situation. While its the minor issue of the three (freedom and nature v a bit'a' media) its probably enabling better communication with less pandering and for-public-consumption-primping over these decisions which could shape a world I for one, feel ''unprepared'' for.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

vivatifosi wrote: »

Blimey Hamish. You are good at this. Can you pick me 6 numbers for the weekend lottery please?

If I could do that, you'd be the second person to know.

Brits are now being told to leave the Bahrain unless they have absolutely pressing reasons to stay.

Most aren't leaving. The old timers have been through rough times before, some are sending families home though.

You told me this would happen, you told me the Saudis would be invited in (granted not in this exact quote but can't find the other one). It is very scary.

The Iranians call Bahrain their 14th province. The Shiaa minority have been infiltrated by Iranian subversives, and have attempted unrest for decades. Bahrain is of strategic importance to the US with the bases for the 5th fleet, the Brits fly refuelling missions from Muharraq airport, Nato uses Sheik Isa airbase, the Saudis Eastern province (where the oil is) is just 30km across the causeway and also has a Shiaa majority (although Saudi as a whole is Sunni majority), and the main Saudi oil terminals, tanker channels, and HQ of Aramco are within a few tens of miles, certainly within range of artillery and/or missiles based in Bahrain.

That Bahrain would fall is unthinkable.

Nobody was ever going to allow that to happen, most especially not the other Gulf states.

This would get way more airtime if it wasn't for the justifiably important lead story from Japan.

Which is exactly why it's happened now.....

Pobby

posh*spice wrote: »

A really interesting 3 minute piece from Niall Ferguson. No democracy for the Middle East and oil at $200

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ELuU34uV46A

So $200. What would that mean for the UK, price wise? It will just add to our woes. Could this mean the best part of £2 a litre? Still as self employed I am able to claim 40 pence per mile, the same as it was when fuel was lower. My wife gets the same deal.

I see it as the madness that abounds. I am off ill and most likely, at 62 will not return to work.

I admit that I do have over 10 grand in the bank. For every £500, it is asumed I will earn £1 a week in interest. Show me a bank that pays this out.

Yet still, regardless of silly house prices, inflation rocketing, 0.5% as the BOE base rate, rising unemployment, reduced annuity rates. I am not looking at a pretty future.

I was shocked at the food prices this week at the supermarket. With rising oil prices it can only go one way.

Do we see our future based on HPI, I just wonder where that comes from. I certainly would not want to see families on the street. Perish the thought. However, if inflation keeps rising, I have no idea what can be done about it. In the past it was raising interest rates. Wonderful for us but at the same time a disaster for the economy and also the poor souls that have entered a market that is, in my opinion , is stupid, and over priced.

Saw a lot going bust 20 years ago. Now seeing it all again. There will come a time when house prices will see people in negative equity. Oh, it is happening now.

I have lots of younger friends and family scared out of their minds because of the mortgages they have taken on and now with kids, work drying up or bosses on their case, not talking about the public sector.

Dunno about you guys, however I am seeing companies closing down.

OK , I might be a pessimist but I think we are a long way off regarding a recovery.

gagahouse

It looks like the US, along with Britain, Italy, France , UAE and Qatar will attack Libya in the early hours of this morning following passage of a UN resolution with China and Russia abstaining - this seems to have been prompted by Gadhaffi's forces rapid progress towards Benghazi. I expect deals have been made, the Gulf countries giving their support in return for no support of any democracy movements in their countries, the others the usual oil and gas deals. Apparently Libya has threatened to retaliate by attacking air and sea transport of the attacking countries.

Can't confirm this to be true at the moment, but do feel there is some substance to this. Maybe Hamish could confirm with his contacts whether this is b.ollox or not?

The UN Security Council is preparing to vote on a resolution, backed by Western and Arab powers, that could open the way for air strikes to protect civilians from retribution by the man who has ruled Libya for 41 years.

The draft, submitted by France, Britain and Lebanon, will authorise a no-fly zone and "all necessary measures" to protect civilians under threat.

The United States has put more pressure on the security council to pass a resolution authorising measures including the possible bombing of government targets.

In a sharp shift in tone, under secretary of state for political affairs William Burns told senators on a foreign relations committee the US was actively pushing for measures "short of boots on the ground".

Despite all the talk of tough UN measures, the positions of such key players and hold-outs as China, Germany and Russia, is unclear

.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2011/03/18/3167160.htm

The Russia and China bit abstaining I've heard from other sources, and is really the crucial bit.

gagahouse

UN passes resolution, Russia and China abstained, Britain will be bombing Libya tonight.

lostinrates

gagahouse wrote: »

UN passes resolution, Russia and China abstained, Britain will be bombing Libya tonight.

Oh god.

What a week. What a ruddy time its been so far. I *sigh* think its right, but late in the day and personally don't feel I have the stomach for any more right now.

What about the wider region...what will this do to that? How will Saudi feel about it?