What next for North Africa/Middle East?

vivatifosi

I haven't updated this thread for a while, but thought it worth digging out to mention the excellent Frank Gardner documentary that has just finished on BBC2. Well worth catching on iPlayer.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b01rwgpr

Next week's programme (same time and place) will apparently be about Israel in the post Arab Spring world.

sabretoothtigger

He is a brave guy, Im sure even the terrorists could respect someone who can get shot that many times, somehow survives then goes back to report and without being totally biased

We hear way too little from the inside of these countries, we really havent a clue how one half of the world lives and dies


Im interested to know if Egypt is progressing or stagnant, hard to tell anything

vivatifosi

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

He is a brave guy, Im sure even the terrorists could respect someone who can get shot that many times, somehow survives then goes back to report and without being totally biased...

...Im interested to know if Egypt is progressing or stagnant, hard to tell anything

Agreed, he's an amazing guy and this was a fascinating programme. I've never been to Saudi and never really wanted to, but the situation within the country was totally different to what I expected to see. For example, I always thought that wearing a niqab was mandatory, so I was surprised to see so many women walking around in hijabs.

I don't know whether this is a series, it's hard to tell as the beeb introduced the next programme within this one, but the following one has a totally different title. I'd like to see one on Egypt too, as well as on Iran.

Here's a linky to the programme for next Weds, about Israel:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b01s0zkt

I'd also like to see Jeremy Bowen doing a programme, possibly on Palestine. He has an amazing inside knowledge of the region.

michaels

Anyone else find the threat of civil war in a country with the population and regional significance of Egypt more than a little scary?

IN that region everything needs to be framed in terms of Isreal - whilst it would seem advantgeous to the Israelis to have other regional powers like Syria and Egypt in ferment (to go only with weak govts in Iraq and Lebanon, the Palestine 'territories' and arguably Jordan) from an Israeli security perspective perhaps the times are a little too interesting, it is hard to maintain a balance of powers dictated by self interest when countries are splintering and different groups have different objectives.

Itismehonest

michaels wrote: »

Anyone else find the threat of civil war in a country with the population and regional significance of Egypt more than a little scary?

IN that region everything needs to be framed in terms of Isreal - whilst it would seem advantgeous to the Israelis to have other regional powers like Syria and Egypt in ferment (to go only with weak govts in Iraq and Lebanon, the Palestine 'territories' and arguably Jordan) from an Israeli security perspective perhaps the times are a little too interesting, it is hard to maintain a balance of powers dictated by self interest when countries are splintering and different groups have different objectives.

This is the problem all the Arab Spring type revolutions face.
Over here too many people cheer on the uprisings without any idea of what may follow them. In countries not used to democracy they can often think it's the end to all their problems & the people will suddenly start getting their own way on everything they want.
Sadly, a large proportion of the population finds they don't get what they want - because democracy doesn't work that way - so they think another revolution is the answer & so it goes on until, in many cases, it ends in civil war, military coups or new dictatorships.

When push comes to shove the Arab nations are all to some extent anti-Israeli - maybe not without cause - but it makes the whole situation extremely volatile.

michaels

Sometimes I'm glad I'm not the US President. Who would want to take a call on what to do about Syria. Common sense says don't get involved but suppose we in the UK were having our own govt use chemical weapons against us (possibly) wouldn't we kind of hope that some other countries might come to our rescue? What will history say if the world stands aside and allows genocide to happen? Does the Chinese doctrine of not getting involved in another countries internal affairs make sense or are some crimes so evil - crimes against humanity - that here is a moral duty to intervene?

It is certainly having an impact on oil prices which can't be good for the world economy although fraking tends to insulate the US from this to an extent.

vivatifosi

Heard excellent piece on R4 today about how there is no hawkish element to Obama, yet he is between a rock and a hard place. It will be interesting to see if he visibly ages over the coming months. It isn't a decision I'd like to make.

I don't know which way this is going. Syrians are pouring out of the country. There are already (a few) refugees here. In 2004 Aleppo was Syria's most populous city, with a population of over 2m. It is now a bombed out shell, with large parts under the control of Al Qaeda. This is very scary and desperately sad for the people of Syria.

John_Pierpoint

It has been going wrong for nearly 1,400 years.

Will we never learn:

We have two different religious communities in a society with an average age probably well under 25 with few job prospects especially when the oil subsidies run out.

Hotheads on both sides would just love a common enemy to act as a recruiting sergeant..

We have been getting it wrong in Muslim counties since Queen Victoria was made Empress of India.

There is no exit strategy.

Has a generation of slaughter in Ulster taught us nothing?

Just try to contain the leakage out to the western world.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Succession_to_Muhammad