What next for North Africa/Middle East?

Generali

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

For what it's worth, I'm betting on military conflict within the not too distant future.

I agree. What I don't understand is why 'The West' sides with Israel in these conflicts. Surely the self-interest lies with the countries that have oil.....?

Quick questions, call them an addendum to the Christmas Quiz:

13. Which 2 countries in the Asian Middle East have democratically elected Jewish MPs?

14. Which 2 countries in the Asian Middle East have democratically elected Arab MPs?

John_Pierpoint

No American president can get elected by alienating the Jewish vote?
I think we are back to the Tebbit cricket team test?

When I visited Israel some wag observed that "You come here being pro Jewish and leave pro Arab". I don't think I would go that far, but in the land of Palestine, I do remember two images:

The dead tanks next to the main road - they were iconic in that they marked the point where the Arabs failed to push the embryo Jewish state into the sea in the 1940's. Akin to gable end art on Ulster housing terraces.

Palestinian villages, that could be identified from their garbage and semi dereliction - reminded me of "Native American" (Red Indian) settlements in N.America and probably Aboriginal settlements in Australia. The situation is similar: massive immigration and an existing people who have failed to integrate.

Answers to questions 13 & 14 : Israel (well I've got it half right.)

How about question 15: Which country, outside of Israel, has the most Jewish legislators?

zagubov

Generali wrote: »

I agree. What I don't understand is why 'The West' sides with Israel in these conflicts. Surely the self-interest lies with the countries that have oil.....?

Quick questions, call them an addendum to the Christmas Quiz:

13. Which 2 countries in the Asian Middle East have democratically elected Jewish MPs?

14. Which 2 countries in the Asian Middle East have democratically elected Arab MPs?

Because it switched sides to the West near the start of the cold war. Much like Cuba switched to the East and became "the enemy". It originally had communal and cooperative farms and large parts of the economy were state-or union-owned, so it looked like a natural ally for the Eastern bloc, was intially recognised by the Soviets and at one point was armed by the Czechoslovakians IIRC.
Q 13 Is the other one Iran?

vivatifosi

zagubov wrote: »

Is the other one Iran?

I seem to recall hearing that too. Iran is certainly a complex country. I really, really want to go there but I think that trip is going to be a long time coming. Along with my visit to Magnus Leptis in Libya.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

vivatifosi wrote: »

Iran is certainly a complex country. .

That it is.

And Iranian politics are worse still.

michaels

Yep - I must admit I saw all the stuff in the press recently re the logistics of an Israeli strike (almost all saying it would not succeed) and I thought 'The psy ops have started already'.

Does your bet extend to going long oil?

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

For what it's worth, I'm betting on military conflict within the not too distant future.

globalds

michaels wrote: »

Does your bet extend to going long oil?

Maybe this has given America a bit more room to pick who it needs to be friends with

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/jan/18/shale-oil-gas-us-energy-self-sufficient

Growth in shale oil and gas supplies, along with other fuel sources, will make the western hemisphere virtually self-sufficient in energy by 2030, according to a BP summary published as an overview accompanying BP's latest energy outlook.
In a development with enormous geopolitical implications, a large swath of the world taking in North and South America would see its dependence on oil imports from potentially volatile countries in the Middle East and elsewhere disappear, BP said, although Britain and western Europe would still need Gulf supplies.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

michaels wrote: »

Does your bet extend to going long oil?

Well, given that I own property in Aberdeen, I'm pretty much permanently long oil....

Generali

John_Pierpoint wrote: »

Answers to questions 13 & 14 : Israel (well I've got it half right.)

How about question 15: Which country, outside of Israel, has the most Jewish legislators?

Israel and Iran are the 2 countries. IIRC, the Iranian constitution mandates that there must be at least one Jewish MP.

Is the USA the answer to #15?

chewmylegoff

Generali wrote: »

Israel and Iran are the 2 countries. IIRC, the Iranian constitution mandates that there must be at least one Jewish MP.

Is the USA the answer to #15?

I would question whether the Jewish member of the Iranian parliament is truly democratically elected, given that it's a state of affairs which is engineered by the constitution.

That said, Wikipedia suggests 3 out of 290 Iranian MPs are Jewish, and the got 1.1% of the vote, which at a turnout of 64% on 30 million electorate suggests 200,000+ votes, which is roughly 8 times the reported size of the Jewish community in Iran.

That is odd, but then the BNP got 1 million votes in the uk's last European elections, and there is no way they actually have that level of support.