What next for North Africa/Middle East?

vivatifosi

John_Pierpoint wrote: »

It sort of reminds me of that 500 year old bridge at Mostar. We should think very carefully before getting involved in something the Arabs should be able to sort out themselves.

After seeing your post I found out that footage from the Bosnia war had been misposted pretending to be from Syria. Not sure if that included the bridge at Mostar, which would be a bit of a give away, but I wouldn't know what real Syria is or isn't, I've never been there.

vivatifosi

It looks like the Chinese are starting to turn the corner and now saying to Syria that they are in favour of letting humanitarian aid through:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/02/29/us-china-syria-idUSTRE81S02820120229

China backs international efforts to send humanitarian aid to Syria, Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi said, after Western powers proposed a United Nations resolution authorizing humanitarian aid.
It was not clear whether Yang's remarks mean China will consider the proposed new U. N. Security Council resolution. China is one of the five permanent members of the Council which have the power to veto such resolutions.

John_Pierpoint

I don't think I would ever believe this place to be in Bosnia, but not sure about vice versa.

John_Pierpoint

For example where is this?
Legally it is Europe but not a million miles form Syria.

vivatifosi

Turkey?

It is an issue though. I seem to remember that at one point footage supposedly from Libya was actually from Tunisia. If journalists can't get in then you are reliant on YouTube and twitter. While there are undoubtedly brave individuals using those fora to get their situation known by the world, there are also too many mischief makers.

John_Pierpoint

You are getting warm.

Girne


Think of this territory:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitter_Lemons

and more civil war.

michaels

Well Cyprus is miles that end of the med?

vivatifosi

michaels wrote: »

Well Cyprus is miles that end of the med?

It would need, I think, to be Turkish Cyprus though. There isn't enough cyrillic script in the picture (boats and hotel names), plus in the second picture there is a minaret.

I remember very clearly seeing the bombing of Sarajevo. Somehow it shocked me more because they had an Ikea there. It suddenly brought it home to me that - whereas previously wars had been in strange countries far, far away - that it could happen anywhere on our doorstep and to people with a reasonable if not the same standard of living. It wasn't much of a leap from there to realise it could happen here again. This isn't something my parents, who lived through WW2 as small children, take for granted, but I would imagine it is something that most everyone younger, does.

John_Pierpoint

:T :beer: :T

When the Greeks lived there it was called Kyrenia (and still is by most people)

20 years go, when the Turks managed to get the electricity turned back on reliably, it was a wonderful place for a holiday.
(We rented a German villa in Bellapaix - hence the reference to Bitter Lemons)

The Turks are very clever, like the Roman army was not allowed in Rome, where all that youthful testosterone could be used to create chaos, the Turks keep their conscripts in N.Cyprus - or Kibris if you prefer.

http://www.google.com/translate?sl=tr&tl=en&u=http%3A%2F%2Fkibrisgazetesi.com%2F

Sadly now that the Greeks have more or less permanently vetoed any relationship between Turkey and the EU, I rather fear that the ever expanding Turkish population is becoming increasingly Muslim and Ataturk is spinning in his grave.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/history/historic_figures/ataturk_kemal.shtml

The man who ordered all prostitutes to wear the burka - a bit like selling cigarettes in black and white utility packaging.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

vivatifosi wrote: »

It's probably more of a question for Hamish, but I also wonder if there is more to play out in terms of the Sunni vs Shia debate.

Yes.

Think of that situation in the middle east as being comparable to the catholic/protestant situation in Northern Ireland in the 1970's and 1980's.

At least 2-3 decades of strife ahead.

In Syria you have a ruling Alawi (Shia) family running a largely Sunni country, whereas in Bahrain you have a ruling Sunni family running a largely Shia population. This is also has bearings on Iran's influence in the region.

Syria is complicated yet further by the significant minority populations of Coptics, Amanites, Druze and Kurds. Collectively around 30% of the population, and concentrated in Damascus.

They dislike Assad, but fear a non-secular Muslim state far more.

Regardless, the Syrian strife has major implications beyond Syria.

The Iran/Israel standoff has been imbalanced by Syria imploding and Hamas repositioning themselves with the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt rather than with Iran.

The reasons for lack of multinational intervention become far clearer when you look behind the politics and soundbites.

ETA: have just heard on the news that Iran is trying to enter dialogue with the opposition. Does this mean that it sees Assad as a dead duck too and is trying to ensure ongoing influence in the country?

That is worthy of an entire thread of it's own.

In the ongoing cold war conflict between Iran and Israel, think of Hamas, Syria and Hezbollah as Iran's version of the original cold war's "nuclear deterrent", assuring that significant damage could be done to Israel on multiple fronts in the event of a preemptive Israeli strike against Iran's nuclear facilities.

In the last year Iran has lost 2/3rds of that deterrent, with the Hamas defection and Syrian implosion.

Which means we now have an emboldened Israel and live in dangerous times indeed....

For what it's worth, I'm betting on military conflict within the not too distant future.