What next for North Africa/Middle East?

John_Pierpoint

vivatifosi wrote: »

I remember the same too John. However I also remember people saying when the communist bloc fell that the countries would be ungovernable because there was no culture of democracy there. Now some have made a better go of it than others - the Czech Republic has clearly done much better than Serbia for example - but I'm wary of tarring all countries with the same brush.

It also wouldn't surprise me if, a couple of years down the line, the young of Iran think "I'll have some of that". Ironically I think that Iraq would now be having a crack at getting rid of Saddam too, plus they'd be a lot more united if they tried to get rid of him themselves. Sadly we'll never know.

But several of these countries had been very successful economies and industrialists since the 1850's and the coming of the railways.
One generation of a funny religion called Marxism that had failed to be imposed to stamp out Christianity, could not change that heritage. One thing that Marxism did do was stamp out the tradition of ruling by inheritance.

The Balkans were at the interface with different tribes, different religions all mixed up, with a history of conflict.
Sounds like the Middle East to me.
[I was 13 in the 1950's when the owner of the B&B in 1950's Dubrovnik conspiratorially told us about the cadre of 40,000 (?!!??!) secret policemen were protecting Tito's War Hero administration. - I don't know if it was true, but if the locals believe it it is true to then ]

I think the Middle East is in for a period of constant turmoil as the population (half of which is under 25) out grows the finite oil revenues. Show me the job prospects? Even Gadaffi had a grand (uneconomic?) scheme going to mine the desert for water. Carpeting the desert with solar electric panels might work but would you want to share the revenues with an army of peasant children.

I just cannot see a happy resolution to these forces. The mushroom theory of ruling just won't work in the age of the internet.

vivatifosi

There's now a separate thread on Libya, but its worth posting an update on Tunisia, which has just held elections:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/oct/25/tunisia-elections-islamist-party-winner?newsfeed=true

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/telegraph-view/8848868/Resurgent-Islamism.html

It's interesting to see the different slants that the Guardian and Telegraph put on the winners.

michaels

Viva/anyone, any thoughts on what the end game for Syria looks like - up to now it looked unimaginable that Assad would fall with strong Russian backing keeping him save from outside pressure but now it is beggining to feel like all bets are off. syria falling really would be a big geopolitical deal.

vivatifosi

michaels wrote: »

Viva/anyone, any thoughts on what the end game for Syria looks like - I tonow it looked unimaginable that Assad woul dfall with strong Russian backing keeping him save from outside pressure but now it is beggining to feel like all bets are off. syria falling really would be a big geopolitical deal.

I'm watching that one with interest. It's hard to know what's going on in the country. I worry with Syria that it could split the country as for whatever reason Assad does still appear to have a power base in Damascus and the second city (Aleppo?) - though I'm sure one could argue that so did Gaddafi in Tripoli and that didn't help him.

It's also worth asking whether the reason we are not intervening, given that the reasons for doing so are more or less the same as in Libya, is a) because it would inflame Iran (to a lesser extent the Russians) or b) because of proximity to Israel and the inferences that could be derived from that, or possibly a mix/something else.

It's also heartening that the Arab League has turned against him. I'm dissapointed in Assad. He had an opportunity to come out of this well - several months ago now granted - and he blew it by going heavy-handed. He could have been a moderate unlike his father, pretty much the same as Saif al Islam could have done with Gaddafi, but instead both leopards have shown they can't change their genetic despotic spots.

The supreme irony is that we could end up hosting a big part of the family in exile due to the wife's British citizenship.

It's probably more of a question for Hamish, but I also wonder if there is more to play out in terms of the Sunni vs Shia debate. In Syria you have a ruling Alawi (Shia) family running a largely Sunni country, whereas in Bahrain you have a ruling Sunni family running a largely Shia population. This is also has bearings on Iran's influence in the region.

ETA: have just heard on the news that Iran is trying to enter dialogue with the opposition. Does this mean that it sees Assad as a dead duck too and is trying to ensure ongoing influence in the country?

John_Pierpoint

There are 4 or 5 oil/gas pipelines going through Syria.
Remember the Iraq wells being set on fire, when the despotic ruler of that country thought he was loosing a war (and the marsh Arabs were left to swivel)?

Does anyone think that those pipe lines might be disrupted during civil war?

All this just when the petrol prices are getting back to February prices - wow.

sabretoothtigger

Free Syrian Army - http://us.cnn.com/2011/11/16/world/meast/syria-unrest/index.html?hpt=hp_t3

Free Syrian Army Lt. Abdullah al Odah, speaking to CNN in Istanbul, Turkey, called the late-night operation brief.

He said 20 defectors armed with rocket-propelled grenades and Kalashnikov rifles participated and that it involved people from inside as well as outside the security branch. He didn't know whether security forces suffered casualties but he said no rebels were hurt.
He called air intelligence "one of the most terrifying secret service departments in Syria" and said such security entities will be targeted by defectors.

"This branch is responsible for many of the crimes against Syrian people and political prisoners," al Odah said. "We will announce the whole story to the world in the correct time."
It was one of five actions reported by the opposition force, which has recently emerged as an important factor in the opposition movement as more and more soldiers have left the Syrian army.

The opposition force also reported clashes with personnel loyal to al-Assad in several areas. They include Qaboun and Arbeen, Damascus neighborhoods, and Saqba, a suburb.
There was also fierce fighting in Douma, a city in the Syrian countryside.

"A clash between the Free Syrian Army and Assad's criminal gangs and his mobsters (the shabiha) in Douma, our Free Syrian military caused the Assad's gangs a lesson that they will never forget and heavy losses at the roundabout in the Douma municipality," the army said. The shabiha are pro-government militias.

Tabler said the Free Syrian Army consists of soldiers who've left their posts instead of obeying orders to fire on protesters. They've also had active operations in and around Homs, Idlib and other areas recently, he said.
Opposition groups like the Free Syrian Army have been calling on the international community to help protect protesters. They have urged the United Nations to impose a no-fly zone, as it did in the Libyan conflict, and a naval blockade. Army leaders have said such policies could allow them to establish a base of operations to launch a campaign to bring down al-Assad's regime.

The group surfaced when seven military officers, believed to be original members of the Free Syrian Army, announced their defection in a video posted on YouTube in July. The group's leaders, who had been exiled to Turkey, say they're directing a guerrilla war effort against the al-Assad regime, which acknowledges an increasing number of deadly attacks on its soldiers, including a bombing of a Syrian army tank near Daraa recently.
Col. Riad al-Assad, a 30-year veteran of the Syrian air force, claims to lead a force in Syrian cities of some 10,000 mainly low-ranking soldiers, a number impossible to verify. But the opposition fighters are believed to have little firepower -- planting bombs and carrying out hit and run attacks -- and they're a small force in comparison with Syria's military, which numbers in the hundreds of thousands.

The group has a Facebook page, which calls on other soldiers to join it.
The Arab League, meeting in Rabat, Morocco, said al-Assad didn't stick by his pledge to release detainees, withdraw armed elements from populated areas, and allow unfettered access to the nation by journalists and Arab League monitors.

The league has also called for unspecified sanctions against Syria and called on member states to withdraw their ambassadors from Damascus, a decision that will be up to each nation.

The Syrian Arab News Agency, a state-run outlet, quoted a government source as saying that "Syria decided not to participate"

reweird

Kicking off in Kuwait... http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=171838

globalds

This is not firm news yet.

But a few reports here and there.

http://www.haaretz.com/news/middle-east/report-russia-warships-to-enter-syria-waters-in-bid-to-stem-foreign-intervention-1.396359

Russian warships are due to arrive at Syrian territorial waters, a Syrian news agency said on Thursday, indicating that the move represented a clear message to the West that Moscow would resist any foreign intervention in the country's civil unrest.

Egypt is all going back onto the streets so I can only assume any potential tourists are looking elsewhere.

Link here, as bad as I thought :

http://bikyamasr.com/48956/egypt-set-to-negotiate-imf-loan-package/

And here is a sign of what may be in store for other fixed distribution routes in unstable regions

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-15670301

Two blasts took place near the Mazar area, some 30km (18 miles) west of the town of Al-Arish, near the Israeli border, Reuters reports.
The attackers used remote-controlled bombs, shutting the pipeline.
This is the sixth attack on the pipeline since the uprising that toppled President Hosni Mubarak.

vivatifosi

There's news this morning that veteran Sunday Times reporter Marie Colvin and photo-journalist Rene Ochlik has been killed by a rocket in Syria. Colvin's final report was shown on the BBC yesterday and really encapsulated the futility of the people of Homs in a way that other reports haven't.

I can't imagine what it must be like living in parts of Syria at the moment. Over 7,000 people are reported to have died in Homs already and people can barely leave their homes for food without being shot at by snipers. There are plans for a humanitarian corridor but it could take a while to put into place.

Colvin's last report is here:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-17120484

John_Pierpoint

It sort of reminds me of that 500 year old bridge at Mostar. We should think very carefully before getting involved in something the Arabs should be able to sort out themselves.