What next for North Africa/Middle East?

John_Pierpoint

Calm down folks - you are both probably right.

I + young bride drove down to Greece on a camping holiday back in the days when it was run by the generals; lovely place clean tidy no beggars (We were able to compare it with Turkey next door).
Not being able to speak Greek or understand the alphabet, life was something of an adventure and at one point we went round a complex of caves. As the only foreigners in the group, we felt somewhat left out, but some cultured and multi lingual chap in the group, of about our age, offered to translate.
We found ourselves being invited to a beach barbecue, organised by our translator and his friends.
After a few glasses of wine all round, with us something of a pre mass tourism novelty, we found our selves being asked what we thought of Greece as against Turkey. Naturally we spoke of the Greek advantages from the point of view of tourists.
Our original translator, started explaining the "painted sepulchre" aspects of then current Greek governance and society.
Then there was a blazing row - I think along the lines of "You have no idea who these people you have picked up are - you will get us all stuck in Jail". [I think from their level of education and wealth our hosts came from the strata of society with the most to lose from a breakdown in governance and it was time to get the conversation back on to pleasantries].
I think this rather demonstrates Winston Churchill's maxim that " Democracy is the worst form of government except all the other forms that have been tried from time to time" - though some Greeks might disagree with me, given the mess that corrupt democracy has created in their economy.

These Middle Eastern countries have a demographic time bomb, the reverse of ours. All these educated but unemployable young people will not accept the diktats of old cronies in a world of free movement of (rich) people, money and ideas, I notice that both sides claim to have God on their side. So expect civil unrest.
However revolution normally results in just a different group of government officials grouped round a different tyrant.

John

I don't know if these references help on any way to explain what I'm trying to say:.
http://bible.cc/matthew/23-27.htm
http://www.almaany.com/home.php?language=english&lang_name=English&category=General&word=painted+sepulchre

vivatifosi

Thought I'd dust down the old thread for another outing.

Tim Marshall, Sky News' foreign editor is calling "the beginning of the beginning of the end" in Libya. He's arguing that if the rebels succeed in capturing the Ghariyan and Zawiya, which they are currently fighting for, that will cut off supply routes to Tripoli.

He argues that there are 8 trade routes in to Tripoli. Two of these - air and sea - have already been cut off by NATO. The rebels in the east of the country have already cut off routes from the east, such as Egypt. The capture of Ghariyan and Zawiya will block routes from Algeria and Tunisia.

Here's a link to his blog:
http://blogs.news.sky.com/foreignmatters/Post:ac33f9b4-a994-4b23-9ef1-18aa5cdf0769

John_Pierpoint

I heard this theory, followed by the "Palace Revolution" theory that would usher in a peace settlement.

I was thinking: How long did the sieges of Stalingrad & Leningrad last?

Time will tell.

vivatifosi

He is suggesting it will end in a siege. But he's also wondering whether people will turn on the government or whether Gaddafi will flee. The rebels are saying that they will hold Tripoli in a month but he's suggesting that this is not the case.

globalds

It looks like it will be far less than a month.

Days if not hours it looks like to me.

Did any one else see the news reader with the gun ...Crazy country.


In other news

Egypt has troubles
Syria has big troubles
Bahrain is now a police state.
Yemen is split in half.

Iraq had it's worst day in months.

sabretoothtigger

Quarter of Libya lives in Tripoli so I guess it wont be that soon, only if its residents turn and join the rebels

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

globalds wrote: »

Egypt has troubles

Yes.

But that was always going to be the outcome when you replace a stable and largely benevolent (by middle eastern standards) dictatorship with an immature democracy in an immensely divided society.

None of the things they blamed Mubarak for have been fixed, or can be fixed, in any timescale less than decades.

Syria has big troubles

Yes.

Bahrain is now a police state.

Bahrain has always been a police state. Just a little less visibly.

Yemen is split in half.

The more things change, the more they stay the same.... (Yemen was two nations until 1990)

Iraq had it's worst day in months.

Which brings us neatly back around to the concept of unstable democracies in a region with immature political structures and tribal/religious conflicts.....

globalds

Positive news from The middle east.

Iran has stopped funding Hamas ..They did not back Syria:doh:

So there is a lot less wriggle room for any negotiations ..When you can't even pay your own Police a ceasefire seems a good idea.

I also think North Africa could end up with a bit of a building boom going on in a couple of years.

This could help me as it is my bread and butter ( so maybe wishful thinking)

vivatifosi

Rumour is that Saif al Islam has been captured (Gaddafi's most vocal son).

sabretoothtigger

Ashraf Laidi
Tripoli slowly falling, Libyan rebel flags in most govt buildngs, Saif Qaddafi executed,Mohmd surrendred - AlArabiya

CNN says captured, the above is an Arab station

None of the things they blamed Mubarak for have been fixed, or can be fixed, in any timescale less than decades.

I think its fixable in less then decades. A free economy should be more profitable for everyone, if they can trade freely without mass disagreement is the test and it'd take a few years at most to see if thats the case.
Its possible they just descend into a nationalist type situation unfortunately