What next for North Africa/Middle East?

vivatifosi

This is a story I've been following closely over the past couple of weeks since the government fell in Tunisia. There's an interesting article in the Indie, which suggests that the uncertainty may spread to Jordan, Algeria, Syria and Morocco - where similar conditions exist - but are less likely in Saudi Arabia and Libya, where oil wealth is spread around more widely. See:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/politics/a-region-in-turmoil-how-far-will-the-unrest-spread-2197950.html

In Tunisia, 7% of the GDP and 12% of the workforce was engaged in tourism, which has now more or less all withdrawn and which will have an impact on the economy. S&P has downgraded Tunisia, Fitch has put it on watch and FDI stands to fall by 1/3rd according to this article:
http://www.afrol.com/articles/37152
Similar economic ramifications must surely also hit Egypt, a country also heavily reliant on tourism, though the FCO has yet to advise against travel to Sharm El Sheikh.

A further article from the North Africa Journal points out how unprepared the west has been and how poor its response. For example, it cliams that French Foreign Minister, Michele Alliot-Marie stated in the early days of the Tunisian revolution that the then government would be well placed to use French knowhow to crackdown on the revolution, all the time turning a blind eye to the Sofexi company shipping seven tonnes of tear gas grenades to the repressive regime over the past couple of months.

http://www.north-africa.com/naj_news/news_na/1jantwentyeigh46.html
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/jan/18/french-minister-tunisia-offer

Meanwhile the Obama government - and the British to be fair - has to work out how to handle the loss of a key ally in the region.

I find the whole thing fascinating. It's like when the Berlin Wall fell, only this time under the eyes of 24 hour news services and first person accounts on the internet. However it is scary for the politics and economy of the region as well as Europe, which sits only the other side of the Med. I hope that a brand of democracy emerges that shows the rights of the people can sit comfortably alongside Islam, but that's the great unknown.

What does everyone else think?

amcluesent

>What does everyone else think?<

Clash of Civilisations within our lifetimes.

vivatifosi

Just watching an update on Al Jazeera. They are giving Egyptians info on how to use dial up internet to route around their country's clampdown. They are also pointing towards this twitter account where someone is taking calls from Egyptians and retweeting as they can't tweet themselves: http://twitter.com/Jan25voices

Update: twitter now reporting that the border between Gaza and Egypt has been abandoned by Egyptian security forces.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

It's fascinating to watch.

I spent many years working in that region, and the underlying problem is always widespread poverty. The demographics in many MENA countries are also an issue, with very large numbers of young people competing for very limited employment opportunities.

The dictators/ruling royal families range from relatively brutal to relatively benign, but the alternative in most cases is worse as the competing islamist parties tend to step in and fill a power vacuum with alarming consequences.

The relatively uneducated and politically unsophisticated peoples of the region are in no position to make informed choices for the most part, and so tend to follow their religious leaders agenda sooner or later. Religion being the opiate of the masses takes on a whole new meaning over there.

There is a difference between likely outcomes in the North African block and the core Arabic Gulf States.... With most of the gulf states more stable and more able to maintain stability. The potential flash points in the gulf would be Yemen and Bahrain. Yemen through poverty and tribalism, and Bahrain through the religious divide between the Sunni ruling class and and Shiite majority that has caused trouble for years. Saudi, the UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, and Oman should all be OK.

In all these cases though, it's unlikely major political change will result in any significant improvement in quality of life for the citizens... And in many cases will result in a significant worse situation that may take decades to resolve.

Out of the frying pan and into the fire for most, I'm afraid.

vivatifosi

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

I spent many years working in that region, and the underlying problem is always widespread poverty. The demographics in many MENA countries are also an issue, with very large numbers of young people competing for very limited employment opportunities.

That's an interesting point in what has been a global downturn. I read that in Tunisia you need at least GDP growth of c2% to avoid what would otherwise be a recession due to population growth and that in Egypt something like 700,000 graduates join the workforce every year and the need for GDP growth is even greater. That's one heck of a conflicting pressure under difficult circumstances.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

vivatifosi wrote: »

That's an interesting point in what has been a global downturn. I read that in Tunisia you need at least GDP growth of c2% to avoid what would otherwise be a recession due to population growth and that in Egypt something like 700,000 graduates join the workforce every year and the need for GDP growth is even greater. That's one heck of a conflicting pressure under difficult circumstances.

The underlying social issues are surprisingly similar in most emerging nations.

Lack of education, lack of opportunity for women, poverty, traditional cultural influences and religious indoctrination.... all contributing factors result in large family sizes, rapid population growth and a demographic imbalance.

What the region needs is massive foreign investment, education, employment, stable business environments, and a turning down of the rhetoric dial by the hard core islamists. But these things can't happen in an unstable political environment.

So these "peoples revolutions" are just as likely to set back all of the above by a decade or two as they are to progress them.

What the regions needs is time, for the old guard to die off, the young to gain experience, a more progressive social system to evolve and a controlled transition to a better democratic society to happen. But time it seems, is the one thing they don't have.

mostlycheerful

Thanks Hamish, what an extraordinary perceptive and understanding analysis. And neatly summed up in a few easy to read and understand paragraphs. Top stuff. Thanks a lot. If you've got any more to say about all this at some point I look forward to reading it and learning some more about these current world events unfolding. And thanks, viva, for starting this thread and collecting up and editing that information you've provided. Yes, impressive stuff, some real and important info on MSE. And explained clearly so that people like me have a got a chance of understanding it as well. Ta. Great.

smeagold

What do I think? gold oil silver and CHF will go up:)

diable

Its screwed my holiday choices for this year................

naughtybish

Kuwait is forward thinking , incase unrest develops there ,
Kuwait – “Let them eat cake” or at least bribe the population into not rioting.


http://www.waspsnest.com/2011/01/29/...to-not-rioting

WHITEVANMAN

naughtybish wrote: »

Kuwait is forward thinking , incase unrest develops there ,
Kuwait – “Let them eat cake” or at least bribe the population into not rioting.

Sounds a bit like a Labour policy