What next for North Africa/Middle East?

michaels

I guess for the Americans Iran was a disaster so if they see Mubarak as being unsavable they definitely want to be in there trying to shape the succession as being to democracy rather than Islamic fundamentalism and thus Western Govts will be briefing appropriately.

lostinrates wrote: »

Its interesting that proper paid for pundits are generally more hopeful than we are....

vivatifosi

I'm not a regular reader, but there's an interesting article in today's Jerusalem Post that states Tunisia ranks alongside Israel for tolerance, peace and democratic attitude. Democracy and religious tolerance taught in school and state of Israel recognised. Hopefully the news will be good for Tunisians:

http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=206180

News not so good for Egypt though.

evosy1978

Hey up.

Im enjoying this thread, learnt alot. Thanks.

I noticed theres also protests and demos in Jordan and the King has sacked his parliment - any connections, implications with Egypt as its a neighbour?

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

evosy1978 wrote: »

Hey up.

Im enjoying this thread, learnt alot. Thanks.

I noticed theres also protests and demos in Jordan and the King has sacked his parliment - any connections, implications with Egypt as its a neighbour?

Jodan is different, and to be honest would have been far lower down my list of countires likely to be affected than places like Algeria.

But to be fair, the protests in Jordan are much smaller and less widely supported so far. King Abdullah is far more widely liked and respected by the Jordanian people than Mubarak is in Egypt. He's also moving towards a more democratic process.

The King has dismissed the cabinet, and will appoint a new one with an urge to bring in more democracy more quickly, at a guess. Sort of a pre-emptive strike against the protestors. I think it's likely to work, and should be enough to stop the Jordan situation escalating.

The danger with Jordan is the Islamic extremists have a significant presence, and terrorism is not unusual. More of an extremist problem than Egypt in many ways, and less of a secular tradition to temper things. But as I said, the King is more widely respected as well. I doubt the King will be ousted in Jordan, but there could well be further trouble.


It's certainly getting intersting though.

gagahouse

evosy1978 wrote: »

Hey up.

Im enjoying this thread, learnt alot. Thanks.

I noticed theres also protests and demos in Jordan and the King has sacked his parliment - any connections, implications with Egypt as its a neighbour?

Yes in that they're under the US sphere of influence. Syria which definitely isn't could have protests too this weekend.

In neighboring Syria, the toppling of an Arab dictator in Tunisia and the continuing popular revolt against Egyptian leader Hosni Mubarak has inspired talk of staging anti-government protests against the reign of President Bashar Assad.


Several online campaigns have been launched on Twitter and Facebook calling for protests. One group has called for a "day of rage" on Saturday, similar to the Jan. 25 demonstrations in Egypt that sparked the current uprising there. Another Web page with more than 6,000 members calls for protests in Damascus on Friday and Saturday.

"We want to end oppression and torture and insult [to] people," said a 38-year-old Damascus resident who asked that he be referred to only by the honorific Abu Tamaam. He said he would attend protests later this week.

"We want to achieve our freedom," he said. "Syria deserves this."

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-jordan-cabinet-20110202,0,1165950.story

vivatifosi

Elsewhere in the region:

Yemen's president states that he will not seek to extend presidency when existing term expires in 2013.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/02/02/us-yemen-president-idUSTRE7111WC20110202
He's also exempting students from tuition fees!

And how others are planning to cling to power:
(from http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/crisis-in-egypt/how-leaders-of-bahrain-jordan-syria-and-yemen-plan-to-keep-control/article1891138/)

King of Bahrain promises improved living conditions, seek political reforms. Also: 'the King has met with advisers, security officials and Sunni and Shia clerics, pressing upon them the need to abide by the system and respect the law. The Gulf Discussion Forum also reports that the King was clearly worried and called on clerics and mosque leaders to counter calls from those who were trying to agitate in the streets. It did not elaborate.'

Jordan's King Abdullah has sacked PM, called for revision of laws for more political freedom. Article states that pressure in Jordan coming from 'a coalition of Islamists, secular opposition groups and a group of retired army generals who have called for sweeping political and economic reforms.'

Syria:
Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad counts on his close links to ‘beliefs of the people'

With his tight leash on his country and zero tolerance for protests, Bashar al-Assad feels secure in his post as president.
Despite the country's ruthless disdain for political dissidence, an opposition group using Facebook and Twitter is calling on Syrians to rally in Damascus on Friday in “Syrian rage” against their government. By midnight last night, more than 10,000 had clicked to show their support for the Facebook site, Syria Revolution 2011. The site is believed to operate outside the country, where Facebook is officially banned but many use proxies for access.
In an interview with the Wall Street Journal this week, Mr. Assad, who comes from a minority ruling clan called the Alawites, said he will have more time to make changes than Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak did, because his anti-American position and confrontation with Israel have endeared him with the grassroots in Syria.
“Syria is stable. Why?” Mr. Assad said. “Because you have to be very closely linked to the beliefs of the people. This is the core issue. When there is divergence … you will have this vacuum that creates disturbances.”
Mr. Assad's one-party rule is among the region's most repressive, where opponents are detained without charges. The government-controlled media in Syria is far more rigid than it is in Egypt.

evosy1978

hmmm

didnt realise untill today that there was such a large pro- Mubarak section. watchin sky, and it looks like its going to kick off....
doesnt look like the army are going to be able to control it.

any thoughts

Generali

There's an interesting piece in The Economist blog section showing the drop in 'inward remittances', that is money sent back home by migrant workers to their families. That money is a surprisingly large part of the Egyptian economy. Presumably that's been caused by the dodgy world economy.

So it seems that mortgages not being repaid in the US is having an impact on North African politics.

1984ReturnsForReal_2

Looks like there is a possibility it might start kicking off.

smeagold

really going for it now

http://english.aljazeera.net/watch_now/