What next for North Africa/Middle East?

PasturesNew

vivatifosi wrote: »

What does everyone else think?

I have no idea, no idea what's going on.
Not entirely sure where it even is, to be honest.

globalds

amcluesent wrote: »

>What does everyone else think?<

Clash of Civilisations within our lifetimes.

Less clash of civilisations ..more a consequence of technology.

A good (old) book on the subject here.

http://www.amazon.co.uk/Third-Wave-Classic-Study-Tomorrow/dp/0553246984/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1296426507&sr=1-1

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

There is a difference between likely outcomes in the North African block and the core Arabic Gulf States.... With most of the gulf states more stable and more able to maintain stability. .

Just to expand on this for a moment...

The north african states like Egypt and Tunisia have the potential for a better outcome than the gulf states if such a peoples revolution succeeds. The population as a whole is better educated, more culturally and socially progressive, and more diverse. Islamic extremism is a serious threat, but by no means a guaranteed outcome. (At least, not initially... The real threat is that without a strong dictator to suppress fundamentalism, we have years of fighting and terrorism ahead with a weak government in place)

The gulf states are more stable, (not least because they are more brutal in suppression of dissent) but if they went the outcome would almost certainly be far worse. The population as a whole is more inclined to islamic fundamentalism, religious extremism is more widely accepted, society is less tolerant, less progressive, less diverse, etc.

The other important thing to realise is that poverty is relative... Or at least, peoples perception of poverty is relative.

In a more open society, such as Egypt, the perception of poverty is more widespread (even though the middle classes are far bigger than somewhere like Saudi), due to the wider influence of western media, culture and the penetration of tourism. Perhaps 40% of the population are genuinely living in poverty, but the middle classes don't feel much better off. (although they are)

In a more closed society like Saudi, the disparity in wealth between the poor and the rich is far bigger, and the middle classes far smaller, but the system of patronage (known as wasta) is all pervasive, so perversely the incentive to maintain the status quo is actually more widespread. More like 70% of the population live in poverty, but almost none will live in such grinding poverty as the poorest in Egypt.

Mubarak tries to portray himself as a kindly grandfather to the nation, caring about his people, and providing for them. But this has backfired as expectations on living standards have risen, and of course he can't deliver.

Whereas the Saudi royals can still pull off this act to some extent, as they genuinely can deliver a basic level of housing, food (through price controls) and care to the people, and the patronage system ensures everyone who gets anything knows full well who has provided it. So the populace is reluctant to bite the hand that feeds it. Whilst the closed society prevents expectations on living standards rising too quickly.

The differences are subtle, but significant.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

smeagold wrote: »

What do I think? gold oil silver and CHF will go up:)

Temporarily...

globalds

Nobody seems to have mentioned the subject of Syria ....Does any body ( Hamish ) think Syria will face something similar to Egypt ?

diable

Give it a year or so and in England it will be the same, house prices will rise FTB wannabes will riot gold and silver will crash all the London council tenants kicked out of their £4000 pw homes will burn Wigan, Wrexham and Luton to the ground. The Monarchy will rise and the despot regime called the Government will fall.


Happy days.........

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

globalds wrote: »

Nobody seems to have mentioned the subject of Syria ....Does any body ( Hamish ) think Syria will face something similar to Egypt ?

Much less likely.

Syria and Libya have a far stronger police state, are more closed societies, and are culturally and politically very different to Egypt. Strong Iranian links and support. More islamic fundamentalism.

If Egypt falls, they may try.... But I'd suspect more bloodshed much earlier, and chances are it would be nipped in the bud.

Algeria is a possibility... Perhaps Morocco too. But again, very different situations, with poverty and a lack of full democracy being the linking factors, but many differences and perhaps not quite the same unified blame of their leaders for the situation, as well as lower expectaions of change.

So much of this is down to local factors, but the underlying issues exist to some extent in most countries in the region. You can bet there's not a single leader in the region not watching this like a hawk and learning lessons as it progresses.

Unfortunately, the lesson may be to shoot first and negotiate later next time.

If Egypt falls, this thing could spread until someone gets immensely brutal in supressing it.... And sadly, in this region, the only thing you can count on is that eventually someone will.

gagahouse

It seems to me we are witnessing the law of unintended consequences - the FED's attempt to reflate has led to a surge in commodities and food prices. Food forms a far higher proportion of disposable income (c.60%) in these countries as opposed to around 10% in developed economies, this seems to have pushed these countries over a tipping point - the grievances were always there and are varied by country but now they are exploding into the open.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

gagahouse wrote: »

It seems to me we are witnessing the law of unintended consequences - the FED's attempt to reflate has led to a surge in commodities and food prices. Food forms a far higher proportion of disposable income (c.60%) in these countries as opposed to around 10% in developed economies, this seems to have pushed these countries over a tipping point - the grievances were always there and are varied by country but now they are exploding into the open.

That plays a small part in some countries, but in many of the countries in the region food staples and fuel are subject to government price controls/subsidies and so do not fluctuate with global commodity prices.

Jonbvn

I won't comment on the politics. However, it is is not difficult to predict the affect these problems will have on the price of oil.