What next for North Africa/Middle East?

michaels

Thanks Viva - it's amazing how world changing news becomes lost from the headlines just because it is not 'fresh'....

vivatifosi

Well, it looks like he's not going, instead he's going to form a committee of well known Egyptians to hand over power. Crowd in square is going bonkers and not at all happy. They came to square jubilant, expecting him to go. 30-year state of emergency has however been lifted.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

IThe potential flash points in the gulf would be Yemen and Bahrain. Yemen through poverty and tribalism, and Bahrain through the religious divide between the Sunni ruling class and and Shiite majority that has caused trouble for years.

Yemen and Bahrain both kicking off.

5 dead in Bahrain now so far. But the chances of them overturning the ruling family are pretty much zero.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Although at least the Egyptians have managed to overthrow one aging pro-western General, and replace him with another aging pro-western General.

vivatifosi

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Yemen and Bahrain both kicking off.

5 dead in Bahrain now so far. But the chances of them overturning the ruling family are pretty much zero.

Also Libya, Yemen and Iran. I've been watching Al Jazeera for the last day or so. A couple of interesting points raised:

1) Bahrain is 70% Shia and 30% Sunni. The 70% Shia population is the original population of the island. The Sunni minority has been shipping in settlers to try and rebalance the population. This is also commented on (briefly) in this earlier US government document from 2008:
http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdf&AD=ADA488706

2) The police in Bahrain are shooting rubber-coated steel bullets into the crowd at close quarters, which is why casualties are high. Hospital doctors claiming that they have seen a "massacre".

3) On an economic level, the Bahrain Grand Prix is looming on the horizon, with teams due to arrive 3-6 March with the race weekend 11-13 March. Clearly this is causing some concern both locally and in the F1 community:
http://edition.cnn.com/2011/SPORT/motorsport/02/16/bahrain.grand.prix.doubts/

4) Unlike in Tunisia and even Egypt, Al Jazeera does not feel able to name its correspondents in Bahrain, or say where they are or show their image for their own safety. Altogether Bahrain feels more sinister than the previous two countries calls for change.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

If Egypt falls, this thing could spread until someone gets immensely brutal in supressing it.... And sadly, in this region, the only thing you can count on is that eventually someone will.

I think we found a winner....

There's no way Bahrain will fall. Headquarters of the US 5th fleet in the Gulf. Strong subversive Iranian influence in the Shiite majority. The Saudi's would invade before they let that happen.

This will be the line in the sand.

vivatifosi

I've updated the thread title to encapsulate the eastward spread of the unrest.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

vivatifosi wrote: »

4) Unlike in Tunisia and even Egypt, Al Jazeera does not feel able to name its correspondents in Bahrain, or say where they are or show their image for their own safety. Altogether Bahrain feels more sinister than the previous two countries calls for change.

Funnily enough, that's actually more because Bahrain and Qatar (where Al Jazeera is based) have a long standing feud running. Al Jazeera is viewed as subversive.

Western reporters are covering the Bahrain situation without fear of reprisals.

Bahrain is one of the more liberal and tolerant Gulf states. They have two Christian cathedrals and even a Jewish Synagogue. Alcohol is legal, western tourism encouraged.

An Iranian backed Shiite controlled state would be disastrous for Bahrain. Forget western style democratic freedom, you'd have an Iran style fundamentalist state.

The suppression is brutal, but the alternative is worse.

vivatifosi

Thanks Hamish, I knew Al Jazeera was based in Qatar, but not of Qatari/Bahraini feuding. I am watching Al Jazeera because the UK channels don't cover it much at the moment due to home news. I'll give CNN a shot to see what they are showing.

Regarding an Iranian/Bahrain alliance, if Bahrain gets propped up for a bit, It looks like there's an outside chance that Iran will fall first. Speaking of which, ninky, if you are reading this, I hope that your husband's family there is safe.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

GP2 practice session cancelled today, no medics, as all needed in Manama. Now GP2 races for the weekend canceled as well.

Be interesting seeing if they can get control soon enough for F1 to get the go-ahead. Can't be long until Bernie and Jean Todt have to make the decision, early next week I'd have thought for logistics reasons, the first test is early March.

A huge amount of revenue is derived from the race, which probably is playing a big part in the speed and severity of the crackdown. Pride will be playing a part in this too though..... Never underestimate the Arabic need to save face.

Tough time for Bahrain businesses until it calms down. The timing couldn't be worse, as even if the race proceeds it'll put a big dent in attendance.