What next for North Africa/Middle East?

gagahouse

smeagold wrote: »

really going for it now

http://english.aljazeera.net/watch_now/

Been watching this last 2 hours, sadly it looks like the Mubarak regime is prepared to risk civil war to stay in power - the big question is which way the army will ultimately tilt?

1984ReturnsForReal_2

gagahouse wrote: »

Been watching this last 2 hours, sadly it looks like the Mubarak regime is prepared to risk civil war to stay in power - the big question is which way the army will ultimately tilt?

Its Mubaraks' own men causing the trouble.

Plain clothes police by all accounts are involved.

vivatifosi

1984ReturnsForReal wrote: »

Its Mubaraks' own men causing the trouble.

Plain clothes police by all accounts are involved.

That's been stated again this morning by the commentators. They are also beating up journalists, I think CNN's Anderson Cooper got quite a pasting from pro-Mubarak supporters and several others were threatened.

What I find most odd about this whole situation and probably shows the paradox that is Egypt better than anything else, is that a revolution that was stoked in cyberspace with tools like Twitter, Facebook and Wikileaks has led to a battle where the cavalry rode in on horse and camelback like something out of Lawrence of Arabia.

1984ReturnsForReal_2

Mobile phone firm Vodafone has accused the Egyptian authorities of using its network to send unattributed text messages supporting the government.
Vodafone was told to switch off services last week when protests against President Hosni Mubarak began.
But the authorities then ordered Vodafone to switch the network back on, in order to send messages under Egypt's emergency laws, the firm said.
In a statement, Vodafone described the messages as "unacceptable".

....................

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Spoke to a friend in Egypt tonight.... Summary of his opinion:

1. The protestors had a lot of support. That support is now weakening somewhat as people are losing income from tourism/business and the security situation destabilises.

2. A lot of profiteering going on with supplies to shops disrupted. People are starting to question the wisdom of shutting down the country as the shelves in shops become bare.

3. The camels and horses in the "cavalry charge" were the tourist ones from the pyramids at Giza, ridden by the tour guides who now can't buy food as they haven't earned in a week. There were some government instigators going around getting people to protest for Mubarak, and stirring up trouble. BUt they didn't have to look hard to get people to join in as a lot of Egyptians are only one paycheck away from starving and the protests have gone on too long.

4. Most people still want a change.... But most people also want Egypt to get back to normal sooner rather than later. The longer it lasts, the more the chances the Army will have to intervene directly against the protestors to get Egypt functioning again, which nobody wants to happen, especially the army who have the most to lose reputation wise if it gets bloody.

5. The most likely outcome is that Mubarak will be allowed to manage a dignified exit, and the army will still be pulling the strings a year from now and ten years from now, but with some form of enhanced democratic system. Too much on the line for them to give up control.

6. A real idealogical split is developing between the young and old, with the young never knowing anything but Mubarak, and the old remembering just how bad things were before he came to power, and how much better Egypt is after 30 years of stability.

diable

I think BTL's will be buying up off plan flats in the shadow of the Pyramids of Giza for either a quick profit or a long term investment as Cairo is a more stable and a safer bet then Aberdeen and growth is expected in the next two years as the Americans have discovered trillions of barrels of oil under the Pyramids. Get in quick I say.

1984ReturnsForReal_2

diable wrote: »

I think BTL's will be buying up off plan flats in the shadow of the Pyramids of Giza for either a quick profit or a long term investment as Cairo is a more stable and a safer bet then Aberdeen and growth is expected in the next two years as the Americans have discovered trillions of barrels of oil under the Pyramids. Get in quick I say.

Been drinking tonight?

diable

1984ReturnsForReal wrote: »

Been drinking tonight?

Sarcasm with ice and a dash of soda :cool:

1984ReturnsForReal_2

diable wrote: »

Sarcasm with ice and a dash of soda :cool:

Make it a double.

vivatifosi

A quick update for anyone who has better things to do than watch or track the news...

Mubarak is expected to make a statement shortly. Most of the cabinet don't know what he's going to say, the Info Minister says he won't stand down and other key people saying he's definitely going.

The crowd in Tahrir Square are looking amazing and even Army officers are now shouting for him to go with immediate effect.

If he does go, it will be interesting if another domino starts to teeter come Friday prayers tomorrow.

ETA: Al Arabiya reporting that he won't step down, he'll hand over power to his deputy and won't be told what to do by the outside. He may be doing everything he can to hang on by his fingertips.