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What next for North Africa/Middle East?
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lostinrates wrote: »Oh god.
What a week. What a ruddy time its been so far. I *sigh* think its right, but late in the day and personally don't feel I have the stomach for any more right now.
What about the wider region...what will this do to that? How will Saudi feel about it?
Yeah I know what you mean, too much information! Saudi I think is supporting this in return for the West promising not to support any democracy movements in the Gulf countries, which they would have done anyway because of the Shia Iranian threat.
I don't usually support these kind of interventions and know there are cynical realpolitik and commercial motivations for this with some element of human compassion thrown in, but even so still feel we should help prevent a massacre in Benghazi and the extinguishing of these people's bid for freedom.0 -
Yeah I know what you mean, too much information! Saudi I think is supporting this in return for the West promising not to support any democracy movements in the Gulf countries, which they would have done anyway because of the Shia Iranian threat.
I don't usually support these kind of interventions and know there are cynical realpolitik and commercial motivations for this with some element of human compassion thrown in, but even so still feel we should help prevent a massacre in Benghazi and the extinguishing of these people's bid for freedom.
Saudi has just killed a load of protesters................Not Again0 -
1984ReturnsForReal wrote: »Saudi has just killed a load of protesters................
Like I said, cynical realpolitik, they are a semi-vassal and friendly state with lots of oil and they allow the US to station the 5th Fleet by Bahrain.
It's money and war, bound to be dirty....0 -
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UN passes resolution, Russia and China abstained, Britain will be bombing Libya tonight.
We are going back to 1995 – a devastating earthquake in Japan, a bombing campaign by NATO countries apparently to protect civilians (in 1995 it was in the Yugoslav civil war).
You'd think the West has interfered in the Middle East's affairs enough in the last 70 years, especially the last 10 years. Time to give it a rest I think, stop pretending we're the world's policeman rather than the world's bully.0 -
1984ReturnsForReal wrote: »Saudi has just murdered a load of protesters................
That's more accurate, would also like to see them taste some freedom too but unfortunately don't see the world intervening for that reason.
Libyan govt spokesman asks for UN fact finding mission on the ground, bit late for that mate0 -
Saddam Hussein's Iraq survived a few bombing campaigns by the West, obviously until the full scale invasion.
Gaddafi's Libya could persist as a pariah state just like Iraq did from 1991 to 2003, except this time the US/UK can't afford a ground war to remove him.0 -
Maybe Hamish could confirm with his contacts whether this is b.ollox or not?
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Sorry, been a bit busy.
But yes, it's in the news now anyway, no fly zone and strikes authorised against military targets IF they are attacking civilians. How wide the ROE are and the in-theatre interpretation of "threat to civilians" is really the key thing here.
This could be relatively toothless and just cement a stalemate, or it could be a crucial turning point towards regime change.
The GCC and Arab League are supportive, they despise Gaddafi anyway. No under the table deals have been struck...... None were needed.
But expect further suppression in Bahrain/Gulf states as soon as the TV cameras are turned to Libya. The Japan situation worked well as a distraction for them, so pretty sure they'll try again when Libya kicks off.
It seems the Bahrain authorities have developed their very own version of "take out the trash day".....“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
Due to deteriorating circumstances in the Yemen, British embassy has pulled a number of its staff out of the country.
In addition, commentators are referring to Syria as the possible next domino to fall. The unrest in Syria occurred after a bunch of schoolkids, copying what they'd seen going on around the Arab world on TV, grafittied some walls and found themselves detained:
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e46cbbf4-557b-11e0-a2b1-00144feab49a.html?ftcamp=rss#axzz1HSqNORrsPlease stay safe in the sun and learn the A-E of melanoma: A = asymmetry, B = irregular borders, C= different colours, D= diameter, larger than 6mm, E = evolving, is your mole changing? Most moles are not cancerous, any doubts, please check next time you visit your GP.
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vivatifosi wrote: »Due to deteriorating circumstances in the Yemen, British embassy has pulled a number of its staff out of the country.
Unsurprisingly, at least for anyone reading this thread.
Equally unsurprisingly, Bahrain has expelled Iranian ambassador citing "foreign interference with internal affairs".
Read: Iran backing subversive activities with the Shiaa.“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0
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