US ($) Currency Thread 2

sabretoothtigger

The British pound rose to its highest level against the dollar in more than seven months after better-than-expected U.K. unemployment data stoked speculation the Bank of England will need to raise interest rates sooner than has been laid out in its guidance.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/dollar-extends-gains-vs-yen-after-obama-speech-2013-09-11?link=MW_story_latest_news
Very good progress, its at the top of the ladder for this years trend of gains. Now it can 'choose' to challenge/meet the multi year set of peak prices which is $1.60ish or it can just top out here 1.584

I think its because dollars are less sought after. The FED threatened some action and now market speculates they will not change course
Eventually I think the Fed will be shown to have an empty briefcase on every idea

Published on Sep 11, 2013
Unlike previous episodes of pronounced strength when the currency was boosted by a general advance in risk-on dynamics (robust market optimism, improved growth in G5 and BRICS) the current phase of sterling rally is primarily driven by UK-specific factors across manufacturing, construction and services sectors. The marked improvement in labour markets fails to have any notable impact on wages but maintains market rates at 2-year highs.

Sterling is now the best performing currency among the 11 most actively traded currencies over the last 6 months, rising 5.8% against the US dollar, and hitting 4year highs against the yen.

The UK unemployment rate (ILO measure) fell to 7.7%, hitting its lowest level since November, which also matched the lows in April 2011, September 2009 and May 2009. The ONS' claimant count unemployment rate hit 4.2%, its lowest level since February 2009. Jobless claims fell by 32,600, marking the 10th straight monthly decline and accumulating a net decline of 177,000 in unemployment claims since November. But the 3-month average of weekly earnings fell to a 4-month low of 1.1% y/y from 2.2%.

Yields on 10-year gilts hit a fresh 2-year high at 3.05%, or 0.06% above their US counterparts, the highest differential in 6 months.

GBP also Boosted by Britain's Isolation

So far, the market implications of a strike on Syria have been generally binary; whereby a looming attack weighs on equities, risk currencies (primarily the euro) to the benefit of the US dollar. Sterling has been spared from the sell-off in risk currencies due to Britain's isolation from the crisis following the anti-strike vote in British Parliament. The positive impact on USD from a looming strike stems from the equities-currencies chain of reaction.

https://twitter.com/alaidi

pollypenny

Rates are good at moment. Just bought DIL a gift card for a big birthday. $150 will have cost me £94!

Think I can afford some treats, too.

jackieblack

pollypenny wrote: »

Rates are good at moment. Just bought DIL a gift card for a big birthday. $150 will have cost me £94!

Think I can afford some treats, too.

SSSSHHHHHHHH...............
Don't shout too loud, you'll scare it back down again

(I bought a few $ at the weekend, might buy a few more next weekend if it stays where it is, or thereabouts )

sabretoothtigger

Spring tide for Sterling. Highs of today are a bit of a tide marker but basically this is the most positive our currency has been for a few years - relatively.

What has to happen now is to confirm its broken its multi year decline and not just the usual swing hi low.
So positive above 1.60 and 1.625 is a wall for now

In absolute terms its only flat on the year but rising like this now does give hope of proper yearly gains

jackieblack

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

Spring tide for Sterling. Highs of today are a bit of a tide marker but basically this is the most positive our currency has been for a few years - relatively.

What has to happen now is to confirm its broken its multi year decline and not just the usual swing hi low.
So positive above 1.60 and 1.625 is a wall for now

In absolute terms its only flat on the year but rising like this now does give hope of proper yearly gains

I don't understand most of that, but it sounds positive

sabretoothtigger

Its now the most positive in 4 years or at least since the election, is my main postulation

Below 1.60 my guess is it becomes much more negative and if it should climb above 1.625 then Sterling would be in fashion again

Sterling Index At 1500 GMT
(JAN 2005=100) INDEX GBP/USD EUR/GBP
 PREVIOUS CLOSE 83.7 1.6204 0.8347
 OPEN 83.6 1.6180 0.8355
 10 AM 83.8 1.6217 0.8343
 NOON 83.7 1.6202 0.8344
 2 PM 83.7 1.6249 0.8358
 4 PM 83.6 1.6229 0.8374

October 02, 2013 11:01 ET (15:01 GMT)

Cable gained about 8% since July but overall Sterling gained 4.6% so its biased most likely

sabretoothtigger

(JAN 2005=100) INDEX GBP/USD EUR/GBP
 PREVIOUS CLOSE 82.3 1.5931 0.8484
 OPEN 82.4 1.5938 0.8475
 10 AM 82.3 1.5939 0.8487
 NOON 82.3 1.5938 0.8487
 2 PM 82.4 1.5941 0.8478
 4 PM 82.4 1.5954 0.8475
Sterling Index 


 1.5 is the new normal for 2014 should we fail this juncture 


[IMG]http://i.imgur.com/Uv8V3KC.png[/IMG]

Today and yesterdays low prices are important. Its looking yet again like recently 1.62 was 'the top' but if it stays above now I'll keep the faith

jackieblack

Well iit's been quite promising for 6 weeks or so, mid-Sept - third week of October, roughly, but looks like that could be over now

sabretoothtigger

No I think its ok still, its 'doing battle'

Draw a line across the low prices since mid Sept, its fight upwards is still wavering not yet snuffed out

Sterling Index At 1200 GMT
(JAN 2005=100) INDEX GBP/USD EUR/GBP
 PREVIOUS CLOSE 82.4 1.5922 0.8471
 OPEN 82.5 1.5939 0.8467
 10 AM 82.5 1.5955 0.8462
 NOON 82.6 1.5972 0.8457
 2 PM 4 PM 
November 04, 2013 07:00 ET (12:00 GMT)

jackieblack

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

No I think its ok still, its 'doing battle'

Draw a line across the low prices since mid Sept, its fight upwards is still wavering not yet snuffed out

Sterling Index At 1200 GMT
(JAN 2005=100) INDEX GBP/USD EUR/GBP
 PREVIOUS CLOSE 82.4 1.5922 0.8471
 OPEN 82.5 1.5939 0.8467
 10 AM 82.5 1.5955 0.8462
 NOON 82.6 1.5972 0.8457
 2 PM 4 PM 
November 04, 2013 07:00 ET (12:00 GMT)

Thanks, I was just going by a graph showing a steady fall since about 23rd (ish) October

I'll carry on keeping everything crossed for now then