US ($) Currency Thread 2

sabretoothtigger

Still progressing well. Staircase or stair step higher I think this is labelled as.
No significant fall, generally looking to rise.
Surprising turnaround in 6 months but this is how it looks now

Sterling Index At 1600 GMT
(JAN 2005=100) INDEX GBP/USD EUR/GBP
 PREVIOUS CLOSE 85.9 1.6631 0.8254
 OPEN 86.0 1.6673 0.8247
 10 AM 86.1 1.6686 0.8238
 NOON 86.1 1.6688 0.8238
 2 PM 86.2 1.6707 0.8234
 4 PM 86.1 1.6682 0.8233

 February 25, 2014 11:01 ET (16:01 GMT)

sabretoothtigger

Cliffs notes for this would be gone up, going up, will go up more until we can lose 1.65 (perhaps)

jackieblack

Stopped watching the rate for a little while as we weren't planning another trip this year.
There has been a change of plans! So I'm back watching the rate with interest
Am happy to note that it's continuing in the right (for us) direction :T

sabretoothtigger

I was listening to a big forex trader. He is very bullish on Sterling, would not shut up about it. All the various factors like central banks increasing their balance sheets favour UK apparently.
He had 1.668 as a buy in April

Big chart here, blue line is Sterling back going back to early 90's
http://i.imgur.com/nWzLys2.png

Friday is unemployment rate Euro and USA (also Japan but nobody cares about that )

Rachel*

I'm going to America in October/November, having been watching the US Dollar-Pound exchange rate rise, and have contemplated buying now incase it drops, but is it going to rise much more? Is it worth waiting?

pollypenny

In sunny Princeton at the moment, enjoying a brilliant rate, as well as looking after the gorgeous boys!

sabretoothtigger

Sterling is generally bullish is my take but it has fallen recently. [The strong trend upwards has stopped ]

https://twitter.com/BrendaKelly_IG/status/501372314936942592
I think this Lady is indicating there is good reason it may rise again short term.
Seems fair as we have pulled back alot of this years gains, I dont think the news matches this particularly. Consolidation is how this is labelled (opposite thinking to a collapse)

http://i.imgur.com/a2bf28O.png

Range is 1.65 to 1.7

Sterling hits four-month low on soft UK inflation data, awaits BoE minutes
By Anirban Nag LONDON, Aug 19 (Reuters) - Sterling hit a four-month low against the dollar and a near two-month trough versus the euro on Tuesday after weaker-than-expected inflation data eased pressure on the Bank of England to raise interest rates. Consumer prices rose 1.6 percent on the year in July, the Office for National Statistics said. That is well below the Bank of England's 2 percent inflation target. A Reuters poll had forecast inflation would fall to 1.8 percent, from 1.9 percent in June. Month-on-month, the consumer price index fell 0.3 percent. ECONGB The pound dropped to $1.6616 GBP=D4 , its weakest since April 8, from around $1.6690 before the data. It has now shed 3.4 percent since hitting a six-year high of $1.7192 on July 15, as investors unwound rate hike expectations. Sterling was among the worst-performing actively traded currencies and chartists said if it closes below its 200-day moving average of $1.6675 on Tuesday, more losses may be in store. It fell further in European afternoon trade after better-than-expected U.S. housing data lifted the dollar. ECONUS The euro rose 0.35 percent to 80.275 pence EURGBP=D4 from around 79.90 pence before the inflation numbers were released. The single currency struck a two-month high of 80.37 pence last week after a Quarterly Inflation Report from the Bank of England was perceived as dovish. After that report, Governor Mark Carney said rates were unlikely to rise until wages picked up, although he moderated those comments in an interview to a newspaper at the weekend. "With dovish comments from BoE Governor Mark Carney last week, this fall in inflation will provide the monetary policy committee with even more reason to hold out for first-quarter 2015 before tightening monetary policy," said Jake Trask, corporate dealer at UKForex. Sterling had been the best performer by far among major currencies in the year to the start of July, pushed up by expectations the BoE might start raising interest rates to cool the economy as early as November. But while economic growth is robust, rate hike expectations have now been pushed back to early next year because wages are not yet rising in real terms. GBPOIS=ICAP With signs that the housing sector is cooling and uncertainty caused by an impending Scottish referendum on independence, some analysts said sterling's gains would be muted. ID:nL5N0QO1RR "Should tomorrow's BoE meeting minutes paint a similar picture to today's inflation news, losses for the pound may continue in August," said Nawaz Ali, analyst at Western Union. Minutes from the latest monetary policy meeting are due on Wednesday and there is speculation that the meeting might have seen the first dissenting vote in favour of a rate hike.

sabretoothtigger

We are living in a time of extremes I guess

Ashraf Laidi ‏@alaidi 7m
Last time $GBPUSD fell 8 strght wks was 1976 GBP CRISIS.Next wk would be 8.

http://t.co/yQ7y7U9Una

http://pastebin.com/j2Px7mdZ


In summer 2008 I thought the falls were not justified, well it continued and was an indicator of the extreme moves underlying, such as debt, etc

sabretoothtigger

Well it only clicked with me recently that Scotland is a significant factor for sterling. Of course it would be, 80% of uk oil reserves are there. If we 'lose' that oil, then uk will be importing even more hence weaker currency.

I expect a NO vote from a less vocal majority to clear, this should reverse some of the recent fall

Chart shows some steady recovery in anticipation already. It will jump the 1.655 level on the news I guess.
If YES then 1.588 seems a fair first target


Dollar is 7% stronger recently on FED 'hawkish' talk. The idea is they will raise rates, it is just talk unfortunately but it moves the price anyway


Edit:
It didnt jump but its still trying to. Lowest Sterling price is rising over some days. Squint at this graph and it makes perfect sense
http://i.imgur.com/LLrSkMA.png

masterwilde

can we get an update please sabre