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If we vote for Brexit what happens
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A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »
Hmmm, far too much credit being given to Western powers in that article.
In the Russian speaking south the mood is that they are Ukrainian. Yet the propaganda coming out of the East of Ukraine and probably Russia is that 'Novorossiya' should extend across the south of Ukraine as far as Odessa, maybe even into Transnistria.
I'll be going back there (to Mykolaiv) on the 19th Sep this year for 2 weeks to see family, I'll let you know what the mood is there on the ground. Should be better from the horses mouth rather than Mr Booker writing from his London pad.0 -
Friday's 2nd revision data for UK Q2 GDPQ2 2016 UK GDP revision data report 0.6% prior q/q
- Prelim 0.6%. Q1 0.4%
- 2.2% vs 2.2% exp y/y. Prelim 2.2%. Prior 2.0%
- Exports 0.1% vs 0.7% exp q/q. Prior -0.4%
- Imports 1.0% vs 0.8% exp q/q. Prior 0.1%
- Private consumption 0.9% vs 0.8% exp q/q. Prior 0.7%
- Government spending -0.2% vs 0.3% exp q/q. Prior 0.5%
- Business investment 0.5% vs -0.8% exp q/q. Prior -0.6%
- -0.8% vs -1.4% exp y/y. Prior -0.8%
- Gross fixed capital formation 1.4% vs 0.4% exp q/q. Prior -0.1%
- June index of services 0.2% vs 0.1% exp m/m. Prior -0.1%. Revised to 0.0%
- 0.5% vs 0.4% exp 3m/3m. Prior 0.3%
First thing to remember is that there's very little actual Brexit noise in this data. Any negatives will be pre-vote nerves and not after vote effects.
Even so, there's good news for business investment, which is something you would have expected to see take a further beating on Brexit worries. The fact it's snapped back suggests that the fear surrounding the vote has lessened. Consumption was up too which shows there wasn't much Brexit fear there either, something that we've seen confirmed in the recent retail sales.
Let there be no mistake that there are many more twists and turns to go but looking at this data, the pre-vote fear factor may have been overplayed.
http://news.forexlive.com/!/q2-2016-uk-gdp-revision-data-report-06-prior-qq-201608260 -
A "Positive" MervThis former Bank of England governor is positive about Brexit
http://www.cityam.com/248350/former-bank-england-governor-positive-brexit
Also outside a paywall
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/world/the-times/britain-may-be-better-off-out-of-europe-says-former-bank-governor/news-story/0790beb9f24c00487be66ceb07a5f84d0 -
Another way of saying 'Britain cannot retain access to the single market without agreeing to free movement' is.......... 'insisting on freedom of movement means loosing free access to the lucrative UK market' (again lucrative to certain key EU nations, namely the purse holder, Germany).0
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Which is more important to Merkel, contagion or Germany's trade with the UK? Baring in mind Germany's trade produces the funds that subsides most EU states and I think I'm right in saying less than a handful of states make a net contribution to EU coffers (with UK soon to go)
Contagion or trade?
TRADE0 -
EU free movement of labour was an artificial construct which seemed feasible at the time. Now like many other EU barnacles it seems be set in stone. I wonder why no EU leaders are willing to take another look?
Anyway it was that principal that might have been the Brexit deciding factor.
Meanwhile I'm picturing the Cabinet Office on May's return from holiday: "now, about Brexit. What should we do? Can anyone suggest some ideas?"0 -
Will Germanys export suffer if the UK doesn't have full free access to the market? How much of a percentage of Germanys output goes to the UK?
Will Germanys economy get a boost if we lose passporting and they gain an enhanced financial sector?
I'm not convinced we have the stronger position over Germany in this case.
Edit: We're Germanys 3rd largest export market (behind France & US) and 5th largest import market (behind Netherlands, China, France, US, Italy.
On the converse, our biggest import is from Germany, and they are our 2nd biggest export market. Loss of trade with Germany would hurt them, but it'd cripple us.0 -
Except that judging from reports about the Eurozone, it is about to go 't..'s up' very soon – and that won't be anything to do with Brexit. There have been many warnings about this happening for quite a while, but the can has been constantly kicked down the road. It will shortly hit a buffer.
I'm not crowing about this – it is a very bad idea for the world economy (probably including ours), let alone that of individual European countries. Merkel, Juncker, Sczultz and the rest should have taken radical action to prevent this from happening long ago, yet they carried on doggedly with their 'project'. The EU has succeeded in impoverishing countries in the Eurozone, not enriching them – well, not in a way that I would call 'enrichment' in any shape or form.
What a mess. Brexit needs to happen as soon as possible.0 -
Will Germanys export suffer if the UK doesn't have full free access to the market? How much of a percentage of Germanys output goes to the UK?
Will Germanys economy get a boost if we lose passporting and they gain an enhanced financial sector?
I'm not convinced we have the stronger position over Germany in this case.
Edit: We're Germanys 3rd largest export market (behind France & US) and 5th largest import market (behind Netherlands, China, France, US, Italy.
On the converse, our biggest import is from Germany, and they are our 2nd biggest export market. Loss of trade with Germany would hurt them, but it'd cripple us.
I think the UK is in a very good position and hope that May & Co don't squander it.0 -
Edit: We're Germanys 3rd largest export market (behind France & US) and 5th largest import market (behind Netherlands, China, France, US, Italy.
On the converse, our biggest import is from Germany, and they are our 2nd biggest export market. Loss of trade with Germany would hurt them, but it'd cripple us.
sadly this shows an inability to understand the economic mathematics0
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