If we vote for Brexit what happens

gfplux

Sapphire wrote: »

Except that judging from reports about the Eurozone, it is about to go 't..'s up' very soon – and that won't be anything to do with Brexit. There have been many warnings about this happening for quite a while, but the can has been constantly kicked down the road. It will shortly hit a buffer.

I'm not crowing about this – it is a very bad idea for the world economy (probably including ours), let alone that of individual European countries. Merkel, Juncker, Sczultz and the rest should have taken radical action to prevent this from happening long ago, yet they carried on doggedly with their 'project'. The EU has succeeded in impoverishing countries in the Eurozone, not enriching them – well, not in a way that I would call 'enrichment' in any shape or form.

What a mess. Brexit needs to happen as soon as possible.

Living within the Eurozone I have no sense of a crisis any greater than that in the past.
Perhaps you have a better insight Saphire. Perhaps you could guide me and others to the indicators that indicate a t**s up situation just around the corner.
I certainly agree that Britain needs to be out ASAP. However pulling the trigger on E50 before we have a strategy in place will weaken Britains negotiating position.
This strategy should not take long to put together now that all UK Ministers and key Civil Servants are back from holiday.
Just to restate MY position. I voted remain but having lost the democratic vote I want Britain to minimise the uncertainty and get out of the EU as soon as possible.

Herzlos

CLAPTON wrote: »

sadly this shows an inability to understand the economic mathematics

Do you want to attempt to explain why you think that, rather than just making vague comments? I mean, I'm pretty sure I'm right but I'm no economist, so I'd love someone to explain where my thinking is wrong.

I can help you here; the actual numbers are actually relatively close (assuming I've got the figures right, I'm using wikipedia) - Our imports are about 11% of German exports, and their imports are about 15% of our exports. If both trades cease, we'd still take a larger hit.

But then, if we look at what they make up - we buy a lot of prestige German cars for the badge snobbery - those are relatively price-elastic since it's almost all done via leasing anyway. Those sales would stay pretty stable even if a tariff appeared. I don't know what Germany imports from us, but is it just as price elastic?

lisyloo

A lot of what Germany produces is replicated nowadays by Japanese, South Korean and Chinese production.

There are millions of people with BMW car and motorbikes who would dispute the products are made to anywhere near the same standard.
Chinese scooters are notorious.

TrickyTree83

Herzlos wrote: »

Do you want to attempt to explain why you think that, rather than just making vague comments? I mean, I'm pretty sure I'm right but I'm no economist, so I'd love someone to explain where my thinking is wrong.

I can help you here; the actual numbers are actually relatively close (assuming I've got the figures right, I'm using wikipedia) - Our imports are about 11% of German exports, and their imports are about 15% of our exports. If both trades cease, we'd still take a larger hit.

But then, if we look at what they make up - we buy a lot of prestige German cars for the badge snobbery - those are relatively price-elastic since it's almost all done via leasing anyway. Those sales would stay pretty stable even if a tariff appeared. I don't know what Germany imports from us, but is it just as price elastic?

I think it's that the percentages are abstract figures.

I've not looked into it and I realise this is simplistic, but if our exports were jubilee clips, and Germany was buying 15% of the jubilee clips we export, and we're buying 11% of the cars they manufacture clearly there's a larger hit from losing the lower percentage.

To be absolutely clear on who will suffer more analysis would need to be done on the true cost rather than the percentage, plus impact analysis on the supply chains that would also be affected.

Thrugelmir

gfplux wrote: »

Living within the Eurozone I have no sense of a crisis any greater than that in the past.

Considering the size and complexity of the EU. That's hardly surprising. When I travel up several hundred miles up north to visit friends. I'm reminded how different things are at a local level even within the UK.

mayonnaise

gfplux wrote: »

Living within the Eurozone I have no sense of a crisis any greater than that in the past.

The sense of crisis is only present in the rabid anti-EU tabloids in the UK who have been peddling lies about the impending collapse of the EU for decades now. And the gullible plebs keep falling for it. :rotfl:

CLAPTON

mayonnaise wrote: »

The sense of crisis is only present in the rabid anti-EU tabloids in the UK who have been peddling lies about the impending collapse of the EU for decades now. And the gullible plebs keep falling for it. :rotfl:

peddling lies about impending collapse seems to be present across both leave and stay voters: gullible plebs (by definition) fall for it.

setmefree2

lisyloo wrote: »

There are millions of people with BMW car and motorbikes who would dispute the products are made to anywhere near the same standard.
Chinese scooters are notorious.

Lexus is as good as BMW )and you do have to wonder about the state of VW these days - it being so scandal ridden)....and many aspire to the American Tesla....

setmefree2

The EU's loss is the UK's gain for trade deals, as the country now finds itself first in line for a transatlantic hookup, one expert has said.
The comments come after Germany's economy minister and vice chancellor Sigmar Gabriel said over the weekend that talks to forge a trade deal between the US and the EU – the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) – had all but collapsed.
"The negotiations with the United States have de facto failed although nobody really admits to it," he said, pointing out that, despite 14 rounds of negotiations, not a single joint statement had materialised.
Assessing what the situation meant for the UK, Dr Madsen Pirie, president of the Adam Smith Institute, said: "It is obviously easier for one country to negotiate a trade deal than it is for 27 and, far from being at the back of the queue, the UK now moves to the front of the queue in reaching a trade deal with the US."

http://www.cityam.com/248353/uk-now-front-queue-deal-us-trade-deal-eu-dubbed-failure-key

Herzlos

The last thing we want is our own version of the TTIP; which I suspect we'll get without the EU who seem to have quite rightly refused it.