Premium Bond Winner ?

Anynamethatisnttaken

Anybody who believes the official line of all bonds having an equal chance, is sadly mistaken.

I've noticed over the last 10 years of having premium bonds, that in months where i make ANY transaction, i'd guess about about 80% of the time i win nothing. It makes no difference how many bonds i have that SHOULD be eligible in the draw, or how much my transaction is for. Yet in months where i have made no transactions, it feels like i win at least £25 near enough 100% of the time.  I've noticed it for years, but being a logical thinking person, i just shrugged it off as a coincidence.

But then the last 8 draws, i've kept a closer eye on it.

The 6 draws from April to August, I won a grand total of just £25. Despite having over £30,000 of supposedly eligible bonds in each draw. I looked at the probability calculator and i recall the chances of me winning only £25 over the 6 months was less than 1%! In all those 6 months, i had bought new bonds during the previous month prior to ther draw. Only small amounts. I know the new bonds don't count in the next draw, but obviously all the £30,000+ that i already have should be eligible. 

So then, to test if further, i then didn't buy or sell any bonds for 2 months. In September and October, i won £25 both months. Not great by any stretch, but back to my usual 100% strike rate in months when i haven't bought or sold any bonds prior to the draw. There's something somewhere that's not rigt about the whole system. The odds just don't stack up even remotely. 

I want to do a full audit, but ilike millions of others i haven't been able to log in to my account since the stupid two-factor implementation.

Westertonbilly

£25 on max holding, only a little better than nothing

Brie

Anynamethatisnttaken said:

Anybody who believes the official line of all bonds having an equal chance, is sadly mistaken.

So you say that they are manipulating the results?  I think what you've described is simply coincidence.

Keep_pedalling

Zero for me on 19k, £575 for my better half on £20k (25+50+500) the first time either of us had anything but £25s.

Cressida100

Keep_pedalling said:

Zero for me on 19k, £575 for my better half on £20k (25+50+500) the first time either of us had anything but £25s.

Congratulations! Nice to see someone winning £500 for a change. 

mcfly998

My brother and I both have the full allowance.  Over the previous 6 draws he averaged £55 per month, and I averaged £45.  Both of us had our bonds split up over a number of "blocks" of bond numbers, as we had both built them up over time.

This month, on the new rate, my brother won £175 (£50 x 2, £25 x 3) but my bonds weren't eligable as I had just cashed them all in and purchased the max allowance again, in a single transaction.  So now all my bonds are in a single block.  I wanted to see if it made any difference.

It'll be interesting to see how we compare from next month onwards.

polymaff

Less conspiracy, please.  MSE is for data, not smoke and mirrors...

MX5huggy

mcfly998 said:

My brother and I both have the full allowance.  Over the previous 6 draws he averaged £55 per month, and I averaged £45.  Both of us had our bonds split up over a number of "blocks" of bond numbers, as we had both built them up over time.

This month, on the new rate, my brother won £175 (£50 x 2, £25 x 3) but my bonds weren't eligable as I had just cashed them all in and purchased the max allowance again, in a single transaction.  So now all my bonds are in a single block.  I wanted to see if it made any difference.

It'll be interesting to see how we compare from next month onwards.

Well your down£175 so far. 

#bonkers. 

redpete

mcfly998 said:

It'll be interesting to see how we compare from next month onwards.

Not that interesting because it won't prove anything for the general case.

plumb1_2

Bought in June this year and up 1% so far.