Premium Bond Winner ?

grandadgolfer

£100 & £25 on £50K holding.....nothing on sons £15K

newatc

£100 and £ 25 for who must be obeyed.  Just £50 for me. Both on max holdings

Futuristic

Only £25 on full, pretty bad run this year so far

doingitanyway

£150 (full holdings) £100+25+25 but still switching out. I was just waiting for the draw. Glad I did now...

Stargunner

£100 for me and £75 for the OH, both on max holdings

MallyGirl

£20k holding
£100+25+25 = £150 this month.
Only held for 2 months and won £25 last month as well - I suspect I won't always be this lucky but it is a nice start.

mar7t1n

This is down to probability theory and distribution. The chances of any single active bond winning are equal. Just that over time people with older bonds sell them off. Thus there are far more newer bonds in circulation than old ones. Taking your money out and re-investing does not change your chance of winning. Only increasing your total holding changes your chances. If your theory is however correct, then you should hold on, and one day we'll all get paid compensation if NS&I find that EARNI does favour new bond holders after all.

Anynamethatisnttaken

Anybody who believes the official line of all bonds having an equal chance, is sadly mistaken.

I've noticed over the last 10 years of having premium bonds, that in months where i make ANY transaction, i'd guess about about 80% of the time i win nothing. It makes no difference how many bonds i have that SHOULD be eligible in the draw, or how much my transaction is for. Yet in months where i have made no transactions, it feels like i win at least £25 near enough 100% of the time.  I've noticed it for years, but being a logical thinking person, i just shrugged it off as a coincidence.

But then the last 8 draws, i've kept a closer eye on it.

The 6 draws from April to August, I won a grand total of just £25. Despite having over £30,000 of supposedly eligible bonds in each draw. I looked at the probability calculator and i recall the chances of me winning only £25 over the 6 months was less than 1%! In all those 6 months, i had bought new bonds during the previous month prior to ther draw. Only small amounts. I know the new bonds don't count in the next draw, but obviously all the £30,000+ that i already have should be eligible. 

So then, to test if further, i then didn't buy or sell any bonds for 2 months. In September and October, i won £25 both months. Not great by any stretch, but back to my usual 100% strike rate in months when i haven't bought or sold any bonds prior to the draw. There's something somewhere that's not rigt about the whole system. The odds just don't stack up even remotely. 

I want to do a full audit, but ilike millions of others i haven't been able to log in to my account since the stupid two-factor implementation.

Westertonbilly

£25 on max holding, only a little better than nothing

Brie

Anynamethatisnttaken said:

Anybody who believes the official line of all bonds having an equal chance, is sadly mistaken.

So you say that they are manipulating the results?  I think what you've described is simply coincidence.