Premium Bond Winner ?

Jonbvn

50 quid for me this month. I would have got more in a high interest savings a/c. Will sell and pay of part of the mortgage, when our fixed rate ends next year.

iltisman

I have held 20k for years and only won 50s usualy 9 times a year, my wife had the same but won less, she upped her holding in Oct to 30k and won 4x100 and a 50 last month, this month 1x100 5x50 theres more to this than random numbers I am sure.

halloweenqueen_2

Nothing for me.

Barnetbear

iltisman wrote: »

I have held 20k for years and only won 50s usualy 9 times a year, my wife had the same but won less, she upped her holding in Oct to 30k and won 4x100 and a 50 last month, this month 1x100 5x50 theres more to this than random numbers I am sure.

Well of course NS&I would say she increased her stake by 1/3.

This is my question though to NS&I: You say your draw is random. You say ERNIE the computer just draws all possible bond numbers which supposedly includes those that are live and those that are not live which are then matched to actual existing bonds.

Given that far more numbers are supposedly drawn than there are live bonds to match them to, what process decides who wins?

I suppose NS&I will say after a random draw the random draw computer simply feeds the winning numbers selected in the order that they were drawn to a program that matches them to the actual existing bonds database and prizes are allocated to winning bonds in the order in which they're drawn, highest prizes first. Once all the prizes available from £1m to the £50 are used up, the rest of the live bonds on the database are disregarded and win nil that month. If a bondholder wins nothing in a subsequent month it is merely that the same process has again excluded them from a prize. It is that randomness or luck has again meant they were not drawn early enough by the random draw computer (ERNIE) to be entitled to anything. If this happens month after consecutive month it is again simply randomness. If someone wins every month after month with the same amount invested as the loser who loses month after month then it is again simply randomness.

Therefore the only way of not winning is being simply the (negative) odds becoming the dominant factor. So why for some people do the negative odds dominate more than the positive even when you'd think it'd even out in the draws? Well, that's providence. (Or of course human error could leave a block of bonds out of the draw if it weren't on the database, ie an old backup database was used. But can that happen? Who knows.)

But for some of us dominant negative odds go against us more than average and there must be a reason for that beyond pure chance. If someone is regularly less or more fortunate than another, it cannot be evenly spread and truly random, over their lifetime. No point saying in 1000 years it'd all be equal. The probability and maths has to fit the human model. So I think some providence runs through it, whether we like to admit to such or not. If the same people aren't winning and the same holdings value is held, then it's either not random or it's providence, or a simple technical or human glitch. One of the those anyway. Randomness may be a favourite idea of the maths-heads but not everything comes down to science, this is shown to be likely when the same people in life tend to win or lose more often than averages or probability suggest they should.

Before I get burnt at the stake as a witch, let me say that I had previously believed in randomness and probability, but over some years have changed my mind in general about it, now I say that there's more to it than that but I can't prove it to a scientist!

Anyway, I ain't won (again!!!) so I'm bitter!

Magnolia

50 quid for me :j

That's £150 total in 2 draws - it will do me:cool:

lordgaino

well thats the sixth month in a row where i have won nothing at all. including the first month where i wasnt included in the draw, so thats over £700 that ive lost in interest in that time compared to my high interest savings account.

I can see no reason to not cash in

Barnetbear

lordgaino wrote: »

well thats the sixth month in a row where i have won nothing at all. including the first month where i wasnt included in the draw, so thats over £700 that ive lost in interest in that time compared to my high interest savings account.

I can see no reason to not cash in

Sounds like you have the max holding like I had.

Also sounds like if I kept mine I'd be heading in the same direction.

Maybe NS&I have had a huge influx of funds after the banking panics lately and as a result there's more bondholders so less chance for all? Just a thought. Doesn't answer why some people seem to win almost every month I know.

Anyway, commiserations (I really hate that word).

james87

3x£50 for me

Lizzieanne

1 x £50 for me

Lopo

A good humble month - 5x £50's and 1x £100 !

Good luck for next month all!