Are new cars really as bad as they say?

Goudy

facade said:

Goudy said:

facade said:

seatbeltnoob said:

They depreciate like a ton because their maintenance costs are factored in. Just like toyota hybrids are so expensive for their age and mileage because they're reliable - they have a premium because it's going to cost the owner less than other cars to keep on the road. The battery replacement is a maintance cost on EV, its just a big cost that comes after 7-10 years of ownership. If theyre so dependable, reliable and cheap to service. They will be holding their value high and owners who buy them from new; will hold onto them and won't pawn them off on the cheap taking massive depreciation hit. The drop in prices reflect the fact that first owners dont want them any more and 2nd hand buyers dont want to touch them either.

The deprecation is a sign that all is not good with EVs. 

The big cost is the battery - which is often inttegrated in the floorpan of tesla cars - i dont know if the major car brands do this too. It is very expensive to replace the cells when they reach serious issues. People will scrap the cars by then. People run into engine issues with ICE cars. Nobody will pay £15,000 for a new engine and gearbox on their 2010 BMW (some might take a chance on a salvaged engine). With EV cars, that is the equation, reaches 10-15 year mark. You alwost definately need to fork out £15K on new cells. 

The trouble is EV cells are constantly evolving and improving. The EV maker probably wont make those same cells in 15 years time. So its not certain if it would be possible to replace the batteries on a 15 year old EV. 

As I see it the main reason for the huge depreciation of EVs is that they are simply massively, massively, massively overpriced to start with- just compare the prices of EVs in China (where they are made) to the UK (where they are bought).

Then we have low demand for second hand ones, caused by fear of expensive repairs, fire etc. range anxiety and being unable to charge at home.

If you are paying public charger prices for electricity, you might as well run a G-wagen or something, if you get a 2018 one the tax is the same as an EV and they do 20MPG!

People don't hang onto new ones as they are leased or PCP so they have to go back- people just don't pay £30K for a 20K car with their own money

Even if they are leased or on PCP, the customer will "pay" for the depreciation.

So on a PCP the difference between the invoice and GFV (plus all the interest) is what the monthly payments are based on.
This means you'll pay more in monthly payments for a car with high depreciation, as the difference between invoice and GFV is larger than one with lower depreciation.

As for lease, the lease payments will be worked out on the difference in values between the start and end of the lease. The bigger the difference, the more you will pay.

I understand that, otherwise the poor finance companies would go bust. They clearly don't so they are at least getting their money back. (Maybe not the wheelbarrows full of gold that they expect, hence their crying to the Government about some sort of tax payer subsidy, but clearly enough or they wouldn't touch them)

EVs are massively, massively, massively overpriced.

The finance companies clearly don't pay anywhere near these massive overprices when they buy them in for lease/pcp. So when they "depreciate" massively initially, the "depreciation" is all on paper, and the values are actually realistic.

My £30K (list price) EV cost me nearly £13,000 at 2.5 years old. Realistically, it should have been £20K new, which makes the £13K I paid about right- it would have been worth £10-11K. 

I think this all shows all is not well with the EV market.

Personally, I think the market started off on the wrong foot, relying on grants that then were taken away and now it's hard to change direction without larger government grants.

But any government grant introduced now hammers the current used market further and harder which the finance/lease companies would have to pick up at the end of the day, unless they did something to overcome that.

So now the the biggest hit, which is traditionally the initial hit over the first three years or so has grown so lease and finance customers pay more of it to start with. 


If thousands are wiped off the current new price of a car, then the depreciation of used models gets hit and if they are on lease/PCP, the finance company have to swallow that if they are making less at auction than their predicted used values/GFVs.

Then it all becomes ever decreasing circles.
Values are usually worked out as percentages of the retail price (100%).
If a car loses 50% in the first three years, the next drop of say 20% of that 50% and so on until it flatlines once the car is older enough.

Now that the new grants gets stuck on the retail price, the real retail price is now 90%, that then loses 50% and so on.
More and more value drips away.

But because used prices are low, the finance companies have inadvertently driven them lower.
They want the initial customer to pay for that which has caused them to set lower GFV and because the GFV are lower so depreciation appears to be 60% or more over the first three years and that means that's the value they achieve at auction.

Add to this the fact the used market doesn't yet trust the used EV's and it's all snowballing into a bit of a mess.
Auction prices say low, get lower, so GFV's get lower and lower.

Buying a used EV can be advantageous because the used prices have taken such a battering, but it's all relevant. Yes the car lost 60% or more over the first three years and someone else paid that, but the next lot of depreciation is based on that.

OK the snowball is slowing, but it's not stopping. Relative to invoice, a EV will still lose a set percentage  between 3 and 6 years old and that percentage is worked out from very low 3 year old value.



 

seatbeltnoob

facade said:

seatbeltnoob said:

They depreciate like a ton because their maintenance costs are factored in. Just like toyota hybrids are so expensive for their age and mileage because they're reliable - they have a premium because it's going to cost the owner less than other cars to keep on the road. The battery replacement is a maintance cost on EV, its just a big cost that comes after 7-10 years of ownership. If theyre so dependable, reliable and cheap to service. They will be holding their value high and owners who buy them from new; will hold onto them and won't pawn them off on the cheap taking massive depreciation hit. The drop in prices reflect the fact that first owners dont want them any more and 2nd hand buyers dont want to touch them either.

The deprecation is a sign that all is not good with EVs. 

The big cost is the battery - which is often inttegrated in the floorpan of tesla cars - i dont know if the major car brands do this too. It is very expensive to replace the cells when they reach serious issues. People will scrap the cars by then. People run into engine issues with ICE cars. Nobody will pay £15,000 for a new engine and gearbox on their 2010 BMW (some might take a chance on a salvaged engine). With EV cars, that is the equation, reaches 10-15 year mark. You alwost definately need to fork out £15K on new cells. 

The trouble is EV cells are constantly evolving and improving. The EV maker probably wont make those same cells in 15 years time. So its not certain if it would be possible to replace the batteries on a 15 year old EV. 

As I see it the main reason for the huge depreciation of EVs is that they are simply massively, massively, massively overpriced to start with- just compare the prices of EVs in China (where they are made) to the UK (where they are bought).

Then we have low demand for second hand ones, caused by fear of expensive repairs, fire etc. range anxiety and being unable to charge at home.

If you are paying public charger prices for electricity, you might as well run a G-wagen or something, if you get a 2018 one the tax is the same as an EV and they do 20MPG!

People don't hang onto new ones as they are leased or PCP so they have to go back- people just don't pay £30K for a 20K car with their own money

I see ideology talk, not facts.

EVs arent massively massively overpriced to start with, they are more expensive to produce than ICE cars and that's why they are more expensive in the beginning.

You're just denying reality to align with your beliefs. the bottom line is somebody somewhere paid sticker price for the EV from the main dealer and they took a MASSIVE depreciation hit and sold it on at auction.

There is demand for them brand new, massive demand - they're fantastic with full factory warranty. but there is a drop in demand for them used. There has to be a good reason for this, you can't blame mass psychosis on the general population who dont "get it"

People do own them brand new, they have somewhere to charge them. charging places exist, people have driveways. why are you saying second hand owners dont have cheap charging but brand new owners do?

Here's an instance where I was personally affected by EV fire. I was shopping and very very lucky of me not to take my car. but a parked up EV car caught fire, locked out all of westfields and loads of poor people who drove there was stuck there without a car to go home. I just went in to do an exchange and had to get back to public transport to go home. https://www.instagram.com/reel/DOjaHMsiPoy/

EV fires should make people avoid Evs, you have no peace of mind, imagine you have one of them parked on your driveway, put them on charge at night while you sleep for cheap rates and it catches fire. ICE cars - when they catch fire it's normally due to driving them hard, overheating and fuel leaks. EV cars can catch fire any time, especially when theyre being parked on charge,

wongataa

seatbeltnoob said:

Tesla (the company which has the best EV fires record) had a recent one where an EV fire came on so fast and took out the door lock controls which meant the driver could not open their doors from the inside and the windows were ovciously unbreakable in the most inappropriate of times. 

The owner was burnt to a toast, the fire couldnt be put out and fireman just have to stand back and suppress the spread of the fire to nearby buildings and cars. 

That really is an issue with very poor design by Tesla.  Doors should be able to be easily opened with manual controls and not just electric controls that can fail due to loss of power (for any reason).  In some Tesla cars there is no manual override for opening the rear doors from inside.  That is not a sensible design.  They have since rectified that by putting in a manual override that is hard to access and not in an obvious place so people unfamiliar wit the vehicle will have no idea where it is and they may not be able to reach it.  Again, a questionable design.

seatbeltnoob

facade said:

Goudy said:

facade said:

seatbeltnoob said:

They depreciate like a ton because their maintenance costs are factored in. Just like toyota hybrids are so expensive for their age and mileage because they're reliable - they have a premium because it's going to cost the owner less than other cars to keep on the road. The battery replacement is a maintance cost on EV, its just a big cost that comes after 7-10 years of ownership. If theyre so dependable, reliable and cheap to service. They will be holding their value high and owners who buy them from new; will hold onto them and won't pawn them off on the cheap taking massive depreciation hit. The drop in prices reflect the fact that first owners dont want them any more and 2nd hand buyers dont want to touch them either.

The deprecation is a sign that all is not good with EVs. 

The big cost is the battery - which is often inttegrated in the floorpan of tesla cars - i dont know if the major car brands do this too. It is very expensive to replace the cells when they reach serious issues. People will scrap the cars by then. People run into engine issues with ICE cars. Nobody will pay £15,000 for a new engine and gearbox on their 2010 BMW (some might take a chance on a salvaged engine). With EV cars, that is the equation, reaches 10-15 year mark. You alwost definately need to fork out £15K on new cells. 

The trouble is EV cells are constantly evolving and improving. The EV maker probably wont make those same cells in 15 years time. So its not certain if it would be possible to replace the batteries on a 15 year old EV. 

As I see it the main reason for the huge depreciation of EVs is that they are simply massively, massively, massively overpriced to start with- just compare the prices of EVs in China (where they are made) to the UK (where they are bought).

Then we have low demand for second hand ones, caused by fear of expensive repairs, fire etc. range anxiety and being unable to charge at home.

If you are paying public charger prices for electricity, you might as well run a G-wagen or something, if you get a 2018 one the tax is the same as an EV and they do 20MPG!

People don't hang onto new ones as they are leased or PCP so they have to go back- people just don't pay £30K for a 20K car with their own money

Even if they are leased or on PCP, the customer will "pay" for the depreciation.

So on a PCP the difference between the invoice and GFV (plus all the interest) is what the monthly payments are based on.
This means you'll pay more in monthly payments for a car with high depreciation, as the difference between invoice and GFV is larger than one with lower depreciation.

As for lease, the lease payments will be worked out on the difference in values between the start and end of the lease. The bigger the difference, the more you will pay.

I understand that, otherwise the poor finance companies would go bust. They clearly don't so they are at least getting their money back. (Maybe not the wheelbarrows full of gold that they expect, hence their crying to the Government about some sort of tax payer subsidy, but clearly enough or they wouldn't touch them)

EVs are massively, massively, massively overpriced.

The finance companies clearly don't pay anywhere near these massive overprices when they buy them in for lease/pcp. So when they "depreciate" massively initially, the "depreciation" is all on paper, and the values are actually realistic.

My £30K (list price) EV cost me nearly £13,000 at 2.5 years old. Realistically, it should have been £20K new, which makes the £13K I paid about right- it would have been worth £10-11K. 

the PCP owner had to pay the depreciation for you. They owned it on a 2 year lease and paid £17K to use it for 2 years. 

Evs arent overpriced, they are priced at what it costs to make them + margin. they cost more than ICE on the same model bcause ICE cars are cheaper to make. 

If anything they are underpriced on the used market because people dont want them. All these second hand EVs are most likely were originally taxis, sold to do 25,30,40K miles a year, they can make the finances work because they will save money on fuel and it;s still in warranty so they can drive the heck out of them for 2 years and return the car. 

WellKnownSid

seatbeltnoob said:

facade said:

Goudy said:

facade said:

seatbeltnoob said:

They depreciate like a ton because their maintenance costs are factored in. Just like toyota hybrids are so expensive for their age and mileage because they're reliable - they have a premium because it's going to cost the owner less than other cars to keep on the road. The battery replacement is a maintance cost on EV, its just a big cost that comes after 7-10 years of ownership. If theyre so dependable, reliable and cheap to service. They will be holding their value high and owners who buy them from new; will hold onto them and won't pawn them off on the cheap taking massive depreciation hit. The drop in prices reflect the fact that first owners dont want them any more and 2nd hand buyers dont want to touch them either.

The deprecation is a sign that all is not good with EVs. 

The big cost is the battery - which is often inttegrated in the floorpan of tesla cars - i dont know if the major car brands do this too. It is very expensive to replace the cells when they reach serious issues. People will scrap the cars by then. People run into engine issues with ICE cars. Nobody will pay £15,000 for a new engine and gearbox on their 2010 BMW (some might take a chance on a salvaged engine). With EV cars, that is the equation, reaches 10-15 year mark. You alwost definately need to fork out £15K on new cells. 

The trouble is EV cells are constantly evolving and improving. The EV maker probably wont make those same cells in 15 years time. So its not certain if it would be possible to replace the batteries on a 15 year old EV. 

As I see it the main reason for the huge depreciation of EVs is that they are simply massively, massively, massively overpriced to start with- just compare the prices of EVs in China (where they are made) to the UK (where they are bought).

Then we have low demand for second hand ones, caused by fear of expensive repairs, fire etc. range anxiety and being unable to charge at home.

If you are paying public charger prices for electricity, you might as well run a G-wagen or something, if you get a 2018 one the tax is the same as an EV and they do 20MPG!

People don't hang onto new ones as they are leased or PCP so they have to go back- people just don't pay £30K for a 20K car with their own money

Even if they are leased or on PCP, the customer will "pay" for the depreciation.

So on a PCP the difference between the invoice and GFV (plus all the interest) is what the monthly payments are based on.
This means you'll pay more in monthly payments for a car with high depreciation, as the difference between invoice and GFV is larger than one with lower depreciation.

As for lease, the lease payments will be worked out on the difference in values between the start and end of the lease. The bigger the difference, the more you will pay.

I understand that, otherwise the poor finance companies would go bust. They clearly don't so they are at least getting their money back. (Maybe not the wheelbarrows full of gold that they expect, hence their crying to the Government about some sort of tax payer subsidy, but clearly enough or they wouldn't touch them)

EVs are massively, massively, massively overpriced.

The finance companies clearly don't pay anywhere near these massive overprices when they buy them in for lease/pcp. So when they "depreciate" massively initially, the "depreciation" is all on paper, and the values are actually realistic.

My £30K (list price) EV cost me nearly £13,000 at 2.5 years old. Realistically, it should have been £20K new, which makes the £13K I paid about right- it would have been worth £10-11K. 

the PCP owner had to pay the depreciation for you. They owned it on a 2 year lease and paid £17K to use it for 2 years. 

Evs arent overpriced, they are priced at what it costs to make them + margin. they cost more than ICE on the same model bcause ICE cars are cheaper to make. 

If anything they are underpriced on the used market because people dont want them. All these second hand EVs are most likely were originally taxis, sold to do 25,30,40K miles a year, they can make the finances work because they will save money on fuel and it;s still in warranty so they can drive the heck out of them for 2 years and return the car. 

EVs have been massively overpriced.  Renault Zoe - priced at around £32k - which manufacturers claimed would be the absolute minimum cost of an EV due to the cost of manufacturing.

A year after discontinuing the Zoe Renault launch the Renault 5 which has very similar specs (albeit a completely re-engineered car with a significant leap forward in battery and drivetrain tech) for an RRP of £22k.

Better car by miles.  A third cheaper.  From a value-driven European manufacturer.  In 12 months.  Made in France.  Yes, I know, they did have some help from the Chinese.

We are the very start of the EV revolution - in a tiny island where there are 0.97 vehicles on the road for every man, woman and child who holds a driving licence.  The only place is down for used EVs which is actually a positive thing as it will continue to make ICEs increasingly irrelevant for many people.  Obviously that's tricky for finance houses and dealers who don't want to be left holding the baby - but these seem like logistics issues not impenetrable barriers to adoption.

seatbeltnoob

WellKnownSid said:

seatbeltnoob said:

facade said:

Goudy said:

facade said:

seatbeltnoob said:

They depreciate like a ton because their maintenance costs are factored in. Just like toyota hybrids are so expensive for their age and mileage because they're reliable - they have a premium because it's going to cost the owner less than other cars to keep on the road. The battery replacement is a maintance cost on EV, its just a big cost that comes after 7-10 years of ownership. If theyre so dependable, reliable and cheap to service. They will be holding their value high and owners who buy them from new; will hold onto them and won't pawn them off on the cheap taking massive depreciation hit. The drop in prices reflect the fact that first owners dont want them any more and 2nd hand buyers dont want to touch them either.

The deprecation is a sign that all is not good with EVs. 

The big cost is the battery - which is often inttegrated in the floorpan of tesla cars - i dont know if the major car brands do this too. It is very expensive to replace the cells when they reach serious issues. People will scrap the cars by then. People run into engine issues with ICE cars. Nobody will pay £15,000 for a new engine and gearbox on their 2010 BMW (some might take a chance on a salvaged engine). With EV cars, that is the equation, reaches 10-15 year mark. You alwost definately need to fork out £15K on new cells. 

The trouble is EV cells are constantly evolving and improving. The EV maker probably wont make those same cells in 15 years time. So its not certain if it would be possible to replace the batteries on a 15 year old EV. 

As I see it the main reason for the huge depreciation of EVs is that they are simply massively, massively, massively overpriced to start with- just compare the prices of EVs in China (where they are made) to the UK (where they are bought).

Then we have low demand for second hand ones, caused by fear of expensive repairs, fire etc. range anxiety and being unable to charge at home.

If you are paying public charger prices for electricity, you might as well run a G-wagen or something, if you get a 2018 one the tax is the same as an EV and they do 20MPG!

People don't hang onto new ones as they are leased or PCP so they have to go back- people just don't pay £30K for a 20K car with their own money

Even if they are leased or on PCP, the customer will "pay" for the depreciation.

So on a PCP the difference between the invoice and GFV (plus all the interest) is what the monthly payments are based on.
This means you'll pay more in monthly payments for a car with high depreciation, as the difference between invoice and GFV is larger than one with lower depreciation.

As for lease, the lease payments will be worked out on the difference in values between the start and end of the lease. The bigger the difference, the more you will pay.

I understand that, otherwise the poor finance companies would go bust. They clearly don't so they are at least getting their money back. (Maybe not the wheelbarrows full of gold that they expect, hence their crying to the Government about some sort of tax payer subsidy, but clearly enough or they wouldn't touch them)

EVs are massively, massively, massively overpriced.

The finance companies clearly don't pay anywhere near these massive overprices when they buy them in for lease/pcp. So when they "depreciate" massively initially, the "depreciation" is all on paper, and the values are actually realistic.

My £30K (list price) EV cost me nearly £13,000 at 2.5 years old. Realistically, it should have been £20K new, which makes the £13K I paid about right- it would have been worth £10-11K. 

the PCP owner had to pay the depreciation for you. They owned it on a 2 year lease and paid £17K to use it for 2 years. 

Evs arent overpriced, they are priced at what it costs to make them + margin. they cost more than ICE on the same model bcause ICE cars are cheaper to make. 

If anything they are underpriced on the used market because people dont want them. All these second hand EVs are most likely were originally taxis, sold to do 25,30,40K miles a year, they can make the finances work because they will save money on fuel and it;s still in warranty so they can drive the heck out of them for 2 years and return the car. 

EVs have been massively overpriced.  Renault Zoe - priced at around £32k - which manufacturers claimed would be the absolute minimum cost of an EV due to the cost of manufacturing.

You're jumping into us have a mid back and forth. They are arguing that car companies are charging too much for brand new EVs and the used market is correcting it. Note the word overpriced, not expensive. Yes EVs are expensive. But overpriced means different. Overpriced is the car companies are asking for too much money for them with ridiculously inflated margins. The margins are similar on ICE and EV cars. A golf EV is £10K more than a ICE golf because it costs £8K+margin to make. 

That was the point of the comment. They are in denial that nobody wants used EVs thats why they deprecate so badly and take so long to shift. They were proposing that car companies just chargings too much over in excess of the normal margins for them. 

vacheron

WellKnownSid said:

seatbeltnoob said:

facade said:

Goudy said:

facade said:

seatbeltnoob said:

They depreciate like a ton because their maintenance costs are factored in. Just like toyota hybrids are so expensive for their age and mileage because they're reliable - they have a premium because it's going to cost the owner less than other cars to keep on the road. The battery replacement is a maintance cost on EV, its just a big cost that comes after 7-10 years of ownership. If theyre so dependable, reliable and cheap to service. They will be holding their value high and owners who buy them from new; will hold onto them and won't pawn them off on the cheap taking massive depreciation hit. The drop in prices reflect the fact that first owners dont want them any more and 2nd hand buyers dont want to touch them either.

The deprecation is a sign that all is not good with EVs. 

The big cost is the battery - which is often inttegrated in the floorpan of tesla cars - i dont know if the major car brands do this too. It is very expensive to replace the cells when they reach serious issues. People will scrap the cars by then. People run into engine issues with ICE cars. Nobody will pay £15,000 for a new engine and gearbox on their 2010 BMW (some might take a chance on a salvaged engine). With EV cars, that is the equation, reaches 10-15 year mark. You alwost definately need to fork out £15K on new cells. 

The trouble is EV cells are constantly evolving and improving. The EV maker probably wont make those same cells in 15 years time. So its not certain if it would be possible to replace the batteries on a 15 year old EV. 

As I see it the main reason for the huge depreciation of EVs is that they are simply massively, massively, massively overpriced to start with- just compare the prices of EVs in China (where they are made) to the UK (where they are bought).

Then we have low demand for second hand ones, caused by fear of expensive repairs, fire etc. range anxiety and being unable to charge at home.

If you are paying public charger prices for electricity, you might as well run a G-wagen or something, if you get a 2018 one the tax is the same as an EV and they do 20MPG!

People don't hang onto new ones as they are leased or PCP so they have to go back- people just don't pay £30K for a 20K car with their own money

Even if they are leased or on PCP, the customer will "pay" for the depreciation.

So on a PCP the difference between the invoice and GFV (plus all the interest) is what the monthly payments are based on.
This means you'll pay more in monthly payments for a car with high depreciation, as the difference between invoice and GFV is larger than one with lower depreciation.

As for lease, the lease payments will be worked out on the difference in values between the start and end of the lease. The bigger the difference, the more you will pay.

I understand that, otherwise the poor finance companies would go bust. They clearly don't so they are at least getting their money back. (Maybe not the wheelbarrows full of gold that they expect, hence their crying to the Government about some sort of tax payer subsidy, but clearly enough or they wouldn't touch them)

EVs are massively, massively, massively overpriced.

The finance companies clearly don't pay anywhere near these massive overprices when they buy them in for lease/pcp. So when they "depreciate" massively initially, the "depreciation" is all on paper, and the values are actually realistic.

My £30K (list price) EV cost me nearly £13,000 at 2.5 years old. Realistically, it should have been £20K new, which makes the £13K I paid about right- it would have been worth £10-11K. 

the PCP owner had to pay the depreciation for you. They owned it on a 2 year lease and paid £17K to use it for 2 years. 

Evs arent overpriced, they are priced at what it costs to make them + margin. they cost more than ICE on the same model bcause ICE cars are cheaper to make. 

If anything they are underpriced on the used market because people dont want them. All these second hand EVs are most likely were originally taxis, sold to do 25,30,40K miles a year, they can make the finances work because they will save money on fuel and it;s still in warranty so they can drive the heck out of them for 2 years and return the car. 

We are the very start of the EV revolution - in a tiny island where there are 0.97 vehicles on the road for every man, woman and child who holds a driving licence.  The only place is down for used EVs which is actually a positive thing as it will continue to make ICEs increasingly irrelevant for many people.  Obviously that's tricky for finance houses and dealers who don't want to be left holding the baby - but these seem like logistics issues not impenetrable barriers to adoption.

I think the major issue with EV residuals is is the mindset split between new and used buyers (who are needed as future EV buyers otherwise the depreciation would be 100%)!

New "buyers" (or leasers) have generally set aside a monthly budget for their cars (often in perpetuity), and change them regularly, eliminating their personal maintenance obligations in exchange for swallowing the heavy initial depreciation.

Used buyers generally allocate a lump sum either by saving or finance, but after a certain number of years (or immediately if paying in cash) they will fully own their car. They then get to decide, "do I keep the car and save money (perhaps paying an extra couple of hundred pounds per year for wear and tear items as per the OP's initial experience) or do I begin the cycle again"?

However, when used buyers purchase EV's, there needs to be is a completely different mindset required, because there is this ticking timebomb (hopefully not literally, but it happens), in that the battery is failing, constantly and relentlessly, it is VERY expensive to replace... and there is ZERO they can do to prevent it.

Like it or not, lithium ion batteries fail. And they fail in a number of ways:

• Igniting unexpectedly without while doing absolutely nothing: Perhaps at 3am while sitting in your garage with your family sleeping above).

• Failing UNspectacularly and spontaneously: When some of the hundreds of individual cells in the battery begin to fail and require replacement. Sometimes rendering the car completely inoperable untill the battery can be repaired or replaced, again at a cost of thousands or even tens of thousands.

• Chronologically: Lithium Ion batteries fail chemically fail as time passes (calendar degradation) this happens regardless of if the vehicle is being used or not.

• With each charge / discharge cycle: Steadily degrading during normal usage.

This means that the used EV buyer has to anticipate and budget for this in their ownership calculations, but the likelyhood of a failure is highly unpredictable, as is the cost of the potential rectification. 

Yes, an EV which has dropped from £50K to 12K in 5 years could be seen as good news for someone who would have bought an ICE vehicle, but can they budget / stomach / handle the costs of replacing a the battery of what was a £50K vehicle which is relentlessly and indefatigably failing - regardless of how perfectly they care for it, or how little they drive it - and has been since the day it was manufactured?

Also, most used car buyers will have owned numerous smartphones in their lifetime and if their experiences are anything like mine, what pushed them to change their phone every 3 or 4 years is not that the phone itself is failing, it is that the lithium ion battery inside (the same type of battery currently used in EVs) has degraded to the point that it can no longer be relied on to perform the way you require, and you know it will only get worse.

I think many used buyers will use their personal experience of previous battery powered device ownership and put 2&2 together to determine this risk for themselves... even if the salesperson / manufacturer has whitewashed over it.

WellKnownSid

seatbeltnoob said:

WellKnownSid said:

seatbeltnoob said:

facade said:

Goudy said:

facade said:

seatbeltnoob said:

They depreciate like a ton because their maintenance costs are factored in. Just like toyota hybrids are so expensive for their age and mileage because they're reliable - they have a premium because it's going to cost the owner less than other cars to keep on the road. The battery replacement is a maintance cost on EV, its just a big cost that comes after 7-10 years of ownership. If theyre so dependable, reliable and cheap to service. They will be holding their value high and owners who buy them from new; will hold onto them and won't pawn them off on the cheap taking massive depreciation hit. The drop in prices reflect the fact that first owners dont want them any more and 2nd hand buyers dont want to touch them either.

The deprecation is a sign that all is not good with EVs. 

The big cost is the battery - which is often inttegrated in the floorpan of tesla cars - i dont know if the major car brands do this too. It is very expensive to replace the cells when they reach serious issues. People will scrap the cars by then. People run into engine issues with ICE cars. Nobody will pay £15,000 for a new engine and gearbox on their 2010 BMW (some might take a chance on a salvaged engine). With EV cars, that is the equation, reaches 10-15 year mark. You alwost definately need to fork out £15K on new cells. 

The trouble is EV cells are constantly evolving and improving. The EV maker probably wont make those same cells in 15 years time. So its not certain if it would be possible to replace the batteries on a 15 year old EV. 

As I see it the main reason for the huge depreciation of EVs is that they are simply massively, massively, massively overpriced to start with- just compare the prices of EVs in China (where they are made) to the UK (where they are bought).

Then we have low demand for second hand ones, caused by fear of expensive repairs, fire etc. range anxiety and being unable to charge at home.

If you are paying public charger prices for electricity, you might as well run a G-wagen or something, if you get a 2018 one the tax is the same as an EV and they do 20MPG!

People don't hang onto new ones as they are leased or PCP so they have to go back- people just don't pay £30K for a 20K car with their own money

Even if they are leased or on PCP, the customer will "pay" for the depreciation.

So on a PCP the difference between the invoice and GFV (plus all the interest) is what the monthly payments are based on.
This means you'll pay more in monthly payments for a car with high depreciation, as the difference between invoice and GFV is larger than one with lower depreciation.

As for lease, the lease payments will be worked out on the difference in values between the start and end of the lease. The bigger the difference, the more you will pay.

I understand that, otherwise the poor finance companies would go bust. They clearly don't so they are at least getting their money back. (Maybe not the wheelbarrows full of gold that they expect, hence their crying to the Government about some sort of tax payer subsidy, but clearly enough or they wouldn't touch them)

EVs are massively, massively, massively overpriced.

The finance companies clearly don't pay anywhere near these massive overprices when they buy them in for lease/pcp. So when they "depreciate" massively initially, the "depreciation" is all on paper, and the values are actually realistic.

My £30K (list price) EV cost me nearly £13,000 at 2.5 years old. Realistically, it should have been £20K new, which makes the £13K I paid about right- it would have been worth £10-11K. 

the PCP owner had to pay the depreciation for you. They owned it on a 2 year lease and paid £17K to use it for 2 years. 

Evs arent overpriced, they are priced at what it costs to make them + margin. they cost more than ICE on the same model bcause ICE cars are cheaper to make. 

If anything they are underpriced on the used market because people dont want them. All these second hand EVs are most likely were originally taxis, sold to do 25,30,40K miles a year, they can make the finances work because they will save money on fuel and it;s still in warranty so they can drive the heck out of them for 2 years and return the car. 

EVs have been massively overpriced.  Renault Zoe - priced at around £32k - which manufacturers claimed would be the absolute minimum cost of an EV due to the cost of manufacturing.

You're jumping into us have a mid back and forth. They are arguing that car companies are charging too much for brand new EVs and the used market is correcting it. Note the word overpriced, not expensive. Yes EVs are expensive. But overpriced means different. Overpriced is the car companies are asking for too much money for them with ridiculously inflated margins. The margins are similar on ICE and EV cars. A golf EV is £10K more than a ICE golf because it costs £8K+margin to make. 

That was the point of the comment. They are in denial that nobody wants used EVs thats why they deprecate so badly and take so long to shift. They were proposing that car companies just chargings too much over in excess of the normal margins for them. 

Well in my example I meant 'overpriced'.

The Zoe was never sold at that inflated price.  The tooling and production lines had been paid off years before.  Costs were dropping like a stone - the battery used may have been 2.4x bigger capacity than the original but the production cost of that battery had dropped by 9x in that same time period.

The e-Golf was an ICE car modified for an EV powertrain and with a very small production run.  The ID3 was widely reported to be 40% cheaper to build than the e-Golf as a result.

Ectophile

The issue of EV batteries failing is massively over-hyped by people who want to stop EVs.

They very rarely catch fire.  It does happen sometimes, but nowhere near as often as petrol or diesel cars catching fire. When the Luton airport multi-storey car park burned down, the haters immediately said it must have been an EV.  It wasn't - it was a diesel Range Rover.

Unless you own an early Nissan Leaf, the batteries last for many years with only moderate degradation. The early Leaf had only passive cooling for the battery pack and coulk cook the batteries on a hot day.  The other manufacturers used active cooling.  Most EVs will fall apart from rust before the battery packs fail.

As battery packs get larger, they need charging less often, which will also increase the battery life.  If you have a car with a 200 mile (real world) range, and you use it for shopping and taking the kids to school, it may only need charging once a week or less.

seatbeltnoob

Ectophile said:

The issue of EV batteries failing is massively over-hyped by people who want to stop EVs.

They very rarely catch fire.  It does happen sometimes, but nowhere near as often as petrol or diesel cars catching fire. When the Luton airport multi-storey car park burned down, the haters immediately said it must have been an EV.  It wasn't - it was a diesel Range Rover.

Unless you own an early Nissan Leaf, the batteries last for many years with only moderate degradation. The early Leaf had only passive cooling for the battery pack and coulk cook the batteries on a hot day.  The other manufacturers used active cooling.  Most EVs will fall apart from rust before the battery packs fail.

As battery packs get larger, they need charging less often, which will also increase the battery life.  If you have a car with a 200 mile (real world) range, and you use it for shopping and taking the kids to school, it may only need charging once a week or less.

!!!!!!. I'm a techie. Id love nothing more than to have an EV that works and lasts longer than an ICE. I work on phones, laptops refurbishment and I know the batteries on those lasts 3 years tops before you end up with degraded performance that require them to be changed out. Fine to use if you're always using them near power point, not much good if you are actually on the move a lot. EVs use battery cooling and heating to regulate temps and last a bit longer. They probably limit charges above 80% and give a "false empty" at 20% to extend the life. nevertheless the curent lithium cell tech means at some stage they battery will need to be taken out and changed.

When that happens it's almost certain the car would rather be scrapped - battery taken apart to salved the good cells to use as a power wall or something. Especially since ex lease EVs are so cheap - which EV owner is going to keep their old EV on the road replacing the packs? 

There is hope for EVs if solid state batteries become economically viable. They charge faster and last a lot longer but they're currently just something in lab tests right now.