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EthicsGradient

simonsmithsays said:

What_time_is_it said:

Zaul22 said:

We might see some of the more harshly cut rates going back up again now. If they have priced in the next cut, which now isn't going to happen.

What makes you so sure? Seems to be about 50/50 for a cut in September. 0.25% cut before Christmas seems pretty nailed on. Decent chance of 2 cuts by then.

Inflation figures today were lower than expected I think, so if anything the chances of a cut in the next round have increased haven't they?

The amount of times economists have got things wrong with their predictions I'd suggest little is nailed on

Well, it's not "economists", but the markets:

Money markets now indicate that there’s a 45% chance that Bank will cut rates to 4.75% next month, from its current level of 5%. Before the inflation data came out, a September rate cut was only a 36% probability, according to City pricing.

Possibility of multiple Bank of England interest rate cuts rises on jobs and inflation data (yahoo.com)

Yes, they can still be wrong, but it's a collective view, with people putting money on it, rather than just quick "can we have a quote on this, please" stuff.

simonsmithsays

EthicsGradient said:

simonsmithsays said:

What_time_is_it said:

Zaul22 said:

We might see some of the more harshly cut rates going back up again now. If they have priced in the next cut, which now isn't going to happen.

What makes you so sure? Seems to be about 50/50 for a cut in September. 0.25% cut before Christmas seems pretty nailed on. Decent chance of 2 cuts by then.

Inflation figures today were lower than expected I think, so if anything the chances of a cut in the next round have increased haven't they?

The amount of times economists have got things wrong with their predictions I'd suggest little is nailed on

Well, it's not "economists", but the markets:

Money markets now indicate that there’s a 45% chance that Bank will cut rates to 4.75% next month, from its current level of 5%. Before the inflation data came out, a September rate cut was only a 36% probability, according to City pricing.

Possibility of multiple Bank of England interest rate cuts rises on jobs and inflation data (yahoo.com)

Yes, they can still be wrong, but it's a collective view, with people putting money on it, rather than just quick "can we have a quote on this, please" stuff.

What a strange phrase.

They're often wrong.

Time after time interest rate changes have been predicted by economists using all sorts of data.

Time after time they've been wrong.

masonic

simonsmithsays said:

EthicsGradient said:

simonsmithsays said:

What_time_is_it said:

Zaul22 said:

We might see some of the more harshly cut rates going back up again now. If they have priced in the next cut, which now isn't going to happen.

What makes you so sure? Seems to be about 50/50 for a cut in September. 0.25% cut before Christmas seems pretty nailed on. Decent chance of 2 cuts by then.

Inflation figures today were lower than expected I think, so if anything the chances of a cut in the next round have increased haven't they?

The amount of times economists have got things wrong with their predictions I'd suggest little is nailed on

Well, it's not "economists", but the markets:

Money markets now indicate that there’s a 45% chance that Bank will cut rates to 4.75% next month, from its current level of 5%. Before the inflation data came out, a September rate cut was only a 36% probability, according to City pricing.

Possibility of multiple Bank of England interest rate cuts rises on jobs and inflation data (yahoo.com)

Yes, they can still be wrong, but it's a collective view, with people putting money on it, rather than just quick "can we have a quote on this, please" stuff.

What a strange phrase.

They're often wrong.

Time after time interest rate changes have been predicted by economists using all sorts of data.

Time after time they've been wrong.

It's not particularly strange. Investors in aggregate make predictions about a whole host of things through the deployment of their capital, just as banks make predictions about the future of interest rates through the rates they set.

What many fail to understand is that the landscape is continually evolving according to world events and the actions of millions of unpredictable people. But the information can still be useful when making decisions about how to manage your assets based on what is known today.

Predictions become more and more uncertain the further into the future they extend, rather like a weather forecast. That doesn't mean forecasting the weather is pointless, just that a minimum level of understanding is required not to immediately dismiss weather forecasters as always wrong and instead understand the limitations of what they are telling you so that you can decide for yourself how to act on the data being presented to you.

The weather forecast for today in my area has been predicting rain off and on for most of this week, but today it says it will stay dry. I will probably still hedge my bets and take an umbrella. This is a better decision than I'd have made by just looking out the window before I left for work.

simonsmithsays

masonic said:

simonsmithsays said:

EthicsGradient said:

simonsmithsays said:

What_time_is_it said:

Zaul22 said:

We might see some of the more harshly cut rates going back up again now. If they have priced in the next cut, which now isn't going to happen.

What makes you so sure? Seems to be about 50/50 for a cut in September. 0.25% cut before Christmas seems pretty nailed on. Decent chance of 2 cuts by then.

Inflation figures today were lower than expected I think, so if anything the chances of a cut in the next round have increased haven't they?

The amount of times economists have got things wrong with their predictions I'd suggest little is nailed on

Well, it's not "economists", but the markets:

Money markets now indicate that there’s a 45% chance that Bank will cut rates to 4.75% next month, from its current level of 5%. Before the inflation data came out, a September rate cut was only a 36% probability, according to City pricing.

Possibility of multiple Bank of England interest rate cuts rises on jobs and inflation data (yahoo.com)

Yes, they can still be wrong, but it's a collective view, with people putting money on it, rather than just quick "can we have a quote on this, please" stuff.

What a strange phrase.

They're often wrong.

Time after time interest rate changes have been predicted by economists using all sorts of data.

Time after time they've been wrong.

It's not particularly strange. Investors in aggregate make predictions about a whole host of things through the deployment of their capital, just as banks make predictions about the future of interest rates through the rates they set.

What many fail to understand is that the landscape is continually evolving according to world events and the actions of millions of unpredictable people. But the information can still be useful when making decisions about how to manage your assets based on what is known today.

Predictions become more and more uncertain the further into the future they extend, rather like a weather forecast. That doesn't mean forecasting the weather is pointless, just that a minimum level of understanding is required not to immediately dismiss weather forecasters as always wrong and instead understand the limitations of what they are telling you so that you can decide for yourself how to act on the data being presented to you.

The weather forecast for today in my area has been predicting rain off and on for most of this week, but today it says it will stay dry. I will probably still hedge my bets and take an umbrella. This is a better decision than I'd have made by just looking out the window before I left for work.

Back to the OP and phrase I was replying to and using your analogy.

I.e. the phrase 'nailed on'.

The only thing 'nailed on' about the weather today is that they'll be some weather.

masonic

simonsmithsays said:

masonic said:

simonsmithsays said:

EthicsGradient said:

simonsmithsays said:

What_time_is_it said:

Zaul22 said:

We might see some of the more harshly cut rates going back up again now. If they have priced in the next cut, which now isn't going to happen.

What makes you so sure? Seems to be about 50/50 for a cut in September. 0.25% cut before Christmas seems pretty nailed on. Decent chance of 2 cuts by then.

Inflation figures today were lower than expected I think, so if anything the chances of a cut in the next round have increased haven't they?

The amount of times economists have got things wrong with their predictions I'd suggest little is nailed on

Well, it's not "economists", but the markets:

Money markets now indicate that there’s a 45% chance that Bank will cut rates to 4.75% next month, from its current level of 5%. Before the inflation data came out, a September rate cut was only a 36% probability, according to City pricing.

Possibility of multiple Bank of England interest rate cuts rises on jobs and inflation data (yahoo.com)

Yes, they can still be wrong, but it's a collective view, with people putting money on it, rather than just quick "can we have a quote on this, please" stuff.

What a strange phrase.

They're often wrong.

Time after time interest rate changes have been predicted by economists using all sorts of data.

Time after time they've been wrong.

It's not particularly strange. Investors in aggregate make predictions about a whole host of things through the deployment of their capital, just as banks make predictions about the future of interest rates through the rates they set.

What many fail to understand is that the landscape is continually evolving according to world events and the actions of millions of unpredictable people. But the information can still be useful when making decisions about how to manage your assets based on what is known today.

Predictions become more and more uncertain the further into the future they extend, rather like a weather forecast. That doesn't mean forecasting the weather is pointless, just that a minimum level of understanding is required not to immediately dismiss weather forecasters as always wrong and instead understand the limitations of what they are telling you so that you can decide for yourself how to act on the data being presented to you.

The weather forecast for today in my area has been predicting rain off and on for most of this week, but today it says it will stay dry. I will probably still hedge my bets and take an umbrella. This is a better decision than I'd have made by just looking out the window before I left for work.

Back to the OP and phrase I was replying to and using your analogy.

I.e. the phrase 'nailed on'.

The only thing 'nailed on' about the weather today is that they'll be some weather.

Agree that another rate cut before Christmas is not "nailed on", but back to the phrase you highlighted in bold and labelled strange, to which I was replying, "Money markets now indicate" (a roughly 50:50 chance of a cut next month) is a much more reasonable assessment of the situation and not at all strange. At least one more cut before Christmas is the most likely outcome, and more likely following yesterday's data. Data which the MPC bases its decisions on.

The most important thing for savers is whether or not banks buy into this narrative, and from the trends in interest rates recently, it seems that they do.

What_time_is_it

Zaul22 said:

What_time_is_it said:

Zaul22 said:

We might see some of the more harshly cut rates going back up again now. If they have priced in the next cut, which now isn't going to happen.

What makes you so sure? Seems to be about 50/50 for a cut in September. 0.25% cut before Christmas seems pretty nailed on. Decent chance of 2 cuts by then.

Inflation figures today were lower than expected I think, so if anything the chances of a cut in the next round have increased haven't they?

Well actually there was a discussion on UKPF about misleading headlines as actually no, inflation has gone up today not down, but apparently it has gone up by less than expected. 

@zaul22 - Agreed. Inflation went up yesterday, but it went up by less by than expected. I also agree that headlines can be misleading. Of course. But your take on the inflation news yesterday seemed to be that interest rate cuts were now definitely not going to happen and that some savings rates might increase in the short term. I have no idea how you reached that conclusion. Perhaps you were just looking in isolation at the fact that inflation had gone up? Or perhaps you have a distrust of economists / the media / experts in general? Anyway, I think you probably haven't factored in the bigger picture and your statement that interest rates cuts "now isn't going to happen" on a thread which helps people make decisions about savings accounts was a misreading of the data.

Similarly I should have tempered my language when I used the phrase "nailed on". What I was trying to convey was "increasingly likely". Perhaps to the point of being very likely. Like I might say that it is "nailed on" that the sun will rise tomorrow. Extreme example, but I mean it to be a situation that is now looking so likely that to plan for a different outcome would be foolish. Not 100%, but very high probability. 

slinger2

What_time_is_it said:

Zaul22 said:

What_time_is_it said:

Zaul22 said:

We might see some of the more harshly cut rates going back up again now. If they have priced in the next cut, which now isn't going to happen.

What makes you so sure? Seems to be about 50/50 for a cut in September. 0.25% cut before Christmas seems pretty nailed on. Decent chance of 2 cuts by then.

Inflation figures today were lower than expected I think, so if anything the chances of a cut in the next round have increased haven't they?

Well actually there was a discussion on UKPF about misleading headlines as actually no, inflation has gone up today not down, but apparently it has gone up by less than expected. 

@zaul22 - Agreed. Inflation went up yesterday, but it went up by less by than expected. I also agree that headlines can be misleading. Of course. But your take on the inflation news yesterday seemed to be that interest rate cuts were now definitely not going to happen and that some savings rates might increase in the short term. I have no idea how you reached that conclusion. Perhaps you were just looking in isolation at the fact that inflation had gone up? Or perhaps you have a distrust of economists / the media / experts in general? Anyway, I think you probably haven't factored in the bigger picture and your statement that interest rates cuts "now isn't going to happen" on a thread which helps people make decisions about savings accounts was a misreading of the data.

Similarly I should have tempered my language when I used the phrase "nailed on". What I was trying to convey was "increasingly likely". Perhaps to the point of being very likely. Like I might say that it is "nailed on" that the sun will rise tomorrow. Extreme example, but I mean it to be a situation that is now looking so likely that to plan for a different outcome would be foolish. Not 100%, but very high probability. 

My own view is that it doesn't pay to take too much note of what people say. However, it's well worth noting when people are "putting their money where their mouth is". Of course everything's quite uncertain. If the money markets are predicting 2 cuts it could be there'll be 1 or 3, or 0 or 4.

Bridlington1

@soulsaver
Monument Bank EA nudges up from 4.81% to 4.87%.

mebu60

Bridlington1 said:

@soulsaver

Secure Trust Access Account (Issue 16) 4.81%

Interesting as that will make Iss 16 higher than Iss 9 from 2/9. I may open and transfer my pittance balance. One hurdle (easily overcome but additional faff) will be if Secure still has the requirement for all deposits to be min £1k but hopefully an initial transfer from a previous issue might be exempt. Has anyone opened a new issue with Secure and funded it with <£1k from a closed issue without a problem? 

BestSeagull

mebu60 said:

Bridlington1 said:

@soulsaver

Secure Trust Access Account (Issue 16) 4.81%

Interesting as that will make Iss 16 higher than Iss 9 from 2/9. I may open and transfer my pittance balance. One hurdle (easily overcome but additional faff) will be if Secure still has the requirement for all deposits to be min £1k but hopefully an initial transfer from a previous issue might be exempt. Has anyone opened a new issue with Secure and funded it with <£1k from a closed issue without a problem? 

I clicked through that link and it's a £1 opening deposit.