Octopus Agile

MultiFuelBurner

Somebody must have the wholesale prices plugged in to check Octopus calculations

https://octopus.energy/blog/agile-pricing-explained

mmmmikey

Agile and Tracker follow different price indexes ,- I've checked the Agile price from time to time and it's always been exactly as per the index. I'm away from home and my spreadsheet must be stored locally on my home PC, I'll dig it out later in the week when I get home and update this thread accordingly.

I think the gap here just arises because the predictions are made from morning hourly prices and they can change by the time the afternoon comes.

Pat38493

mmmmikey said:

Agile and Tracker follow different price indexes ,- I've checked the Agile price from time to time and it's always been exactly as per the index. I'm away from home and my spreadsheet must be stored locally on my home PC, I'll dig it out later in the week when I get home and update this thread accordingly.

I think the gap here just arises because the predictions are made from morning hourly prices and they can change by the time the afternoon comes.

I’ve just seen a post on another forum that says that the Agile wholesale formula uses the Epexspot rates from 4pm and not the Nordpool rates. Tomorrows prices are consistent with that index apparently.  

la531983

Pat38493 said:

mmmmikey said:

Agile and Tracker follow different price indexes ,- I've checked the Agile price from time to time and it's always been exactly as per the index. I'm away from home and my spreadsheet must be stored locally on my home PC, I'll dig it out later in the week when I get home and update this thread accordingly.

I think the gap here just arises because the predictions are made from morning hourly prices and they can change by the time the afternoon comes.

I’ve just seen a post on another forum that says that the Agile wholesale formula uses the Epexspot rates from 4pm and not the Nordpool rates.

Yes, as I posted yesterday and nobody is arguing otherwise.

The confusion here is that the Nordpool 10am hourly release usually gives a very good indication of what the 4pm half hourly pricing is going to be, and it turned out to be slightly incorrect (there was a prediction of hours of plunge pricing (see below), which never occurred because the 4pm pricing was slightly higher overnight than expected.

mmmmikey said:

..... with Octopus Watch predicting the same, a prolonged period of plunge pricing overnight.

MultiFuelBurner

Pat38493 said:

mmmmikey said:

Agile and Tracker follow different price indexes ,- I've checked the Agile price from time to time and it's always been exactly as per the index. I'm away from home and my spreadsheet must be stored locally on my home PC, I'll dig it out later in the week when I get home and update this thread accordingly.

I think the gap here just arises because the predictions are made from morning hourly prices and they can change by the time the afternoon comes.

I’ve just seen a post on another forum that says that the Agile wholesale formula uses the Epexspot rates from 4pm and not the Nordpool rates. Tomorrows prices are consistent with that index apparently.  

Thanks for finding that a clarifying 

la531983

Anyway, the hourly Epexspot pricing for tomorrow suggests the party is about to come to a shuddering halt tomorrow.

(disclaimer, I know this isnt official, its a guide)

Indeed my tracker price is going up from 13.79p a unit today to 17.55p tomorrow. Overnight pricing back to normal.

mmmmikey

All part of the Agile rolllercoaster :-) Not a tariff for the faint hearted.

Octopus Watch is predicting a few hours of Agile prices around 10p/kWh to 12p/kWh overnight - let's see if they're right....

Pat38493

MultiFuelBurner said:

Pat38493 said:

mmmmikey said:

Agile and Tracker follow different price indexes ,- I've checked the Agile price from time to time and it's always been exactly as per the index. I'm away from home and my spreadsheet must be stored locally on my home PC, I'll dig it out later in the week when I get home and update this thread accordingly.

I think the gap here just arises because the predictions are made from morning hourly prices and they can change by the time the afternoon comes.

I’ve just seen a post on another forum that says that the Agile wholesale formula uses the Epexspot rates from 4pm and not the Nordpool rates. Tomorrows prices are consistent with that index apparently.  

Thanks for finding that a clarifying 

I suspect that this is the data that links into the Agile tariff calculation

https://www.epexspot.com/en/market-data?market_area=GB&trading_date=2023-09-19&delivery_date=2023-09-20&underlying_year=&modality=Auction&sub_modality=DayAhead&technology=&product=30&data_mode=table&period=&production_period=

As confirmed above, it seems like this data doesn't normally come out till later in the day.  The data that comes at 10am is usually a good indication of the situation but it won't be exact, and in any case I think Octopus publish the Agile rate pretty much immediately when this data is available so it doesn't really help to predict anything.

la531983

Gas pirces have soared 20% in the last 24 hours or so, no idea what has occurred.

Pat38493

la531983 said:

Gas pirces have soared 20% in the last 24 hours or so, no idea what has occurred.

A lot of people switched their heating on?  It was quite chilly this morning started to feel Autumnal round my way.