Octopus Agile

Chrysalis

Pat38493 said:

MultiFuelBurner said:

Pat38493 said:

MultiFuelBurner said:

@Spoonie_Turtle

Just to clarify that example was to backup my assumption that those on the Agile tariff know what to do because otherwise they should no be on that tariff. Those people can quite easily beat the tracker rate even without solar and batteries. With Solar and batteries it must be an amazing tariff.

We moved off Agile to Tracker as like others we do like to cook in the evening, especially coming into Autumn and then Winter.

That said if prices of tracker rocket we will adjust (and can adjust as you point out) to cooking meals in batch/lunchtime and reheating cheaply in a microwave for the evening hot meal should we wish on the Cosy Tariff or Agile (we will see which works out best for our lifestyle)

I am waiting on a couple of quotes for solar and batteries but the property has a number of flaws for solar like shading from trees and only one roof that is south facing and it's small (4 panels only) we do have a decent amount of west facing roofline so perhaps it could work. We shall wait for the prices but battery wise with the ASHP thats where most of the stored battery energy will be diverted and we may be looking at 5-10kwh of battery storage to maximise our savings.

I am on Agile without solar panels nor batteries and I’m not sure I agree that you can easily beat the tracker rate.  I suppose it depends what you define as easy.  In the last rolling 1 month I did beat the tracker rate by the princely sum of £2.04 on a cost of £186.  So yes I did it but if I was to caculate my “hourly rate” for the amount of time I spent faffing about and also take into account the hours in the evening when I chose not to do something because “it will use too much power” I could argue that it’s in the territory of “wouldn’t get out of bed for that pay”

Also on days where we didn’t use many heavy load appliances, which do happen sometimes, we unsurprisingly didn’t beat the tracker rate.

Then I think you have answered your own question like we did when we sent a message to Octopus to switch us to tracker for ease of use.

It does sound like tracker would be much better for you as it was for us. As you point out it is pence per day.

To add, the effort required with Agile is not overstretching the grid in peak times which may give some satisfaction to those that see the gas and coal being burnt during those times. Some would see that as worth it and not base it on your hourly rate of effort?

You are right but there is one other advantage of agile versus tracker which is the opt out and opt in situation.  I can move from agile to another tariff pretty much immediately, and back again after 30 days.  Agile is already running at a rate significantly cheaper than my intended tariff when I joined Octopus which was Go.

I am a bit reluctant to go on Tracker when we are going into the winter months.  It’s not so much the issue of taking “up to 2 weeks” to switch away but more that you can’t go back on it for 9 months.   Therefore I am not sure whether to ,ove to tracker now or wait till the Spring.

The going back to Agile also applies to Tracker, so you can join Tracker, leave it, then join Agile if you decide you want spot pricing back.

There seems to be a common opinion on the internet (mostly from new spot pricing customers) that prices will sky rocket in winter, when in fact last winter spot pricing was cheaper than last summer, there is usually more wind in winter for a start so expect more wind farm generation.

We cant predict the future, we have history as data, and thats it really.

Pat38493

Chrysalis said:

Pat38493 said:

MultiFuelBurner said:

Pat38493 said:

MultiFuelBurner said:

@Spoonie_Turtle

Just to clarify that example was to backup my assumption that those on the Agile tariff know what to do because otherwise they should no be on that tariff. Those people can quite easily beat the tracker rate even without solar and batteries. With Solar and batteries it must be an amazing tariff.

We moved off Agile to Tracker as like others we do like to cook in the evening, especially coming into Autumn and then Winter.

That said if prices of tracker rocket we will adjust (and can adjust as you point out) to cooking meals in batch/lunchtime and reheating cheaply in a microwave for the evening hot meal should we wish on the Cosy Tariff or Agile (we will see which works out best for our lifestyle)

I am waiting on a couple of quotes for solar and batteries but the property has a number of flaws for solar like shading from trees and only one roof that is south facing and it's small (4 panels only) we do have a decent amount of west facing roofline so perhaps it could work. We shall wait for the prices but battery wise with the ASHP thats where most of the stored battery energy will be diverted and we may be looking at 5-10kwh of battery storage to maximise our savings.

I am on Agile without solar panels nor batteries and I’m not sure I agree that you can easily beat the tracker rate.  I suppose it depends what you define as easy.  In the last rolling 1 month I did beat the tracker rate by the princely sum of £2.04 on a cost of £186.  So yes I did it but if I was to caculate my “hourly rate” for the amount of time I spent faffing about and also take into account the hours in the evening when I chose not to do something because “it will use too much power” I could argue that it’s in the territory of “wouldn’t get out of bed for that pay”

Also on days where we didn’t use many heavy load appliances, which do happen sometimes, we unsurprisingly didn’t beat the tracker rate.

Then I think you have answered your own question like we did when we sent a message to Octopus to switch us to tracker for ease of use.

It does sound like tracker would be much better for you as it was for us. As you point out it is pence per day.

To add, the effort required with Agile is not overstretching the grid in peak times which may give some satisfaction to those that see the gas and coal being burnt during those times. Some would see that as worth it and not base it on your hourly rate of effort?

You are right but there is one other advantage of agile versus tracker which is the opt out and opt in situation.  I can move from agile to another tariff pretty much immediately, and back again after 30 days.  Agile is already running at a rate significantly cheaper than my intended tariff when I joined Octopus which was Go.

I am a bit reluctant to go on Tracker when we are going into the winter months.  It’s not so much the issue of taking “up to 2 weeks” to switch away but more that you can’t go back on it for 9 months.   Therefore I am not sure whether to ,ove to tracker now or wait till the Spring.

The going back to Agile also applies to Tracker, so you can join Tracker, leave it, then join Agile if you decide you want spot pricing back.

There seems to be a common opinion on the internet (mostly from new spot pricing customers) that prices will sky rocket in winter, when in fact last winter spot pricing was cheaper than last summer, there is usually more wind in winter for a start so expect more wind farm generation.

We cant predict the future, we have history as data, and thats it really.

Yes I was also wondering about this because since the normal prices that most customers pay are set on a 3 month basis, and the price formula for agile and tracker does not force prices higher by season, there is no particular reason to expect that prices will shoot up massively in Winter.

There were a few days when this happened last Winter from what I can see, but I suspect this was more due to what was happening with the Ukraine situation than the normal course of events.

markin

la531983 said:

Peak pricing tomorrow likely to be a significant jump up for Agile customers if the Nordpool day ahead hourly pricing (used to calculate Tracker pricing) is anything to go by, so just a heads up.

Still a significant lack of wind power in the system.

The EU only used around 30% of reserves so even if they haven't topped up over summer they can get past another winter.


Hard to find updated number for the UK.

"The United Kingdom's natural gas storage amounted to some 6.39 terawatts hour (TWh) in April 2023, accounting for nearly 65 percent of its capacity"


And we May not have enough plants to burn the stuff!


July 2023

"If we have a very cold spell in the winter, along with no wind, then we may not have enough gas-fired generation to generate the electricity... we need a lot of technologies to have a resilient electricity system".

It comes as the National Grid Electricity Systems Operator (ESO) confirmed it will have no coal-fired power as back-up this winter, if needed, to help keep the lights on. There were five contingency units to call on last winter, used once in March when a cold snap hurt wind generation.!"

"While the UK is in a "far better" position than last year when it comes to gas reserves, Mr O'Shea said, there is currently only capacity to store gas for 12 days - double the amount that could be stored last year."

https://news.sky.com/story/uk-gas-storage-materially-behind-european-neighbours-centricas-chris-oshea-says-12922851

Bendo

Its probably been posted before but for those who want to check what their electric usage would have been on agile Guy Lipmans site includes agile in the tariff comparison so you can load your smart meter data from n3rgy and see what you would have paid in comparison with other tariffs.

https://energy.guylipman.com/

Even with no load shifting or anything, Agile would have been cheaper most months than the capped tariff which was a surprise.  Although there were a couple of months where it would have been significantly more expensive.

Pat38493

Does anyone use the subscription option for forecast of Agile prices more than 24 hours ahead on the "Octopus Watch" app?  

If so how accurate have you found it to be generally?

Any other places you can get easy to decipher predictions for Agile prices for more than just 24 hours ahead from 4pm each day?

mmmmikey

Pat38493 said:

Does anyone use the subscription option for forecast of Agile prices more than 24 hours ahead on the "Octopus Watch" app?  

If so how accurate have you found it to be generally?

Any other places you can get easy to decipher predictions for Agile prices for more than just 24 hours ahead from 4pm each day?

I have the subscription but mainly for the enhanced reporting which for me makes it worth it. The predictions always seem to be a little on the high side but as long you factor that in they do seem to give a reasonable view of the period ahead.

Pat38493

mmmmikey said:

Pat38493 said:

Does anyone use the subscription option for forecast of Agile prices more than 24 hours ahead on the "Octopus Watch" app?  

If so how accurate have you found it to be generally?

Any other places you can get easy to decipher predictions for Agile prices for more than just 24 hours ahead from 4pm each day?

I have the subscription but mainly for the enhanced reporting which for me makes it worth it. The predictions always seem to be a little on the high side but as long you factor that in they do seem to give a reasonable view of the period ahead.

Thanks - and when it says the predictions go 48 hours ahead, does that mean a continuous rolling 48 hours or does it just give an additional day at the 4pm time so it will be less than 48 hours for some of the day?

mmmmikey

Hi - it's a rolling 48 hours, another 30 min was added as I looked to check BTW it does get adjusted and the prediction can change, e.g. they often get updated mid morning, presumably when some new data becomes available.

la531983

Octpus Tracker pricing has just come out, and I think Agile customers are in for a nice surprise overnight into Tuesday, hourly auction pricing was between 0.01 and -0.01 pence per MwH between 1am and 5am, and this should be reflected in the half hour auction prices that come out around 3.45pm.

Lots and lots of wind today (42% of generation currently, most for some time)

mmmmikey

Thanks - Octopus Watch forecast has been updated and predicts pricing going down to 1p/kWh or so overnight. This afternoon go0d too with prices about 6p/kWh.