I'm timing the market - who's in?

coastline

Poor call at the end of March of SELL 749 has been costly. Mentioned in an earlier post I was twitchy about the banking crisis. Should have left everything to the market and my system. The 10 day moving average is the guide/stop loss in the uptrend which wasn't broken until 775 . Lesson learnt we shall see ?

iShares Core FTSE 100 UCITS ETF, UK:ISF Advanced Chart - (LON) UK:ISF, iShares Core FTSE 100 UCITS ETF Stock Price - BigCharts.com (marketwatch.com)

Still have more units than original sell in January . So at todays close of 760 buy and hold would have been 760 x 13065 units or £99,294 plus dividend of 4.28p gives £99,853. Timing 13379 units x 760 is £101,680. Eight months to go and probably at least 6 chances to deal. 

NedS

I'm still sitting tight. I wanted to sell CTY late April at just under 430p, but held on for the dividend on 27th April, and since then the price has slid. The price now is slap bang in the middle of my 400-430p range, so I continue to hold and see where we go from here. Market is trading sideways, doesn't seem to have the confidence to break out higher, and earnings in the US have not been as bad as they might, helping to support prices for now. I don't have a view on where we are going from here, in the short term.

coastline said:

 Eight months to go and probably at least 6 chances to deal. 

That would be great! Two more good trades this year and I could meet my objective / target. Happy to be patient for now.

coastline

NedS said:

I'm still sitting tight. I wanted to sell CTY late April at just under 430p, but held on for the dividend on 27th April, and since then the price has slid. The price now is slap bang in the middle of my 400-430p range, so I continue to hold and see where we go from here. Market is trading sideways, doesn't seem to have the confidence to break out higher, and earnings in the US have not been as bad as they might, helping to support prices for now. I don't have a view on where we are going from here, in the short term.

coastline said:

 Eight months to go and probably at least 6 chances to deal. 

That would be great! Two more good trades this year and I could meet my objective / target. Happy to be patient for now.

CTY on my system would have been a sell at 425 ish and now into buying territory.

City of London Investment Trust PLC, UK:CTY Advanced Chart - (LON) UK:CTY, City of London Investment Trust PLC Stock Price - BigCharts.com (marketwatch.com)

US is still in the undecided camp. Recession on its way later this year or mild slowdown with flat earnings. Earnings are forecast even higher in 2024 at the moment. 

Fvta52oXsAAXxpO (900×556) (twimg.com)

SP 500 is held up by the big guns this year.

Fsah8HCWAAA83Re (900×587) (twimg.com)

Again shown by the equal weight index.

Value Line Geometric Index, VALUG Advanced Chart - (1083) VALUG, Value Line Geometric Index Stock Price - BigCharts.com (marketwatch.com)

NedS

coastline said:

NedS said:

I'm still sitting tight. I wanted to sell CTY late April at just under 430p, but held on for the dividend on 27th April, and since then the price has slid. The price now is slap bang in the middle of my 400-430p range, so I continue to hold and see where we go from here. Market is trading sideways, doesn't seem to have the confidence to break out higher, and earnings in the US have not been as bad as they might, helping to support prices for now. I don't have a view on where we are going from here, in the short term.

coastline said:

 Eight months to go and probably at least 6 chances to deal. 

That would be great! Two more good trades this year and I could meet my objective / target. Happy to be patient for now.

CTY on my system would have been a sell at 425 ish and now into buying territory.

Yes, absolutely agree (my post-it note says reduce at 426p and sell at 431p), and had it not been for the dividend due a few days later, I would have certainly reduced my holding, but I'd be looking for close to 400p as a re-entry point (5% drop).

The CTY dividends are building nicely now at over £900 a quarter with £10k income in the last 3 years.

adindas

Previously Debt Limit Talks Made Little Progress, the US Debt Ceiling Deadline Looms. But in Wednesday this is the news

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/17/debt-ceiling-talks-progress.html Biden, McCarthy say U.S. won’t default as debt talks inch forward May 17 2023.

This was again on Thursday yesterday.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/18/mccarthy-says-house-could-vote-on-debt-ceiling-deal-as-soon-as-next-week.html McCarthy says House could vote on debt ceiling deal as soon as next week Thu, May 18 2023. McCarthy is a republican. This is what cause the US stock market to rally. since Wednesday.

When very close to the deadline e.g June 1 and the US stock market fall significant, it is time to buy a big chunk. Because it is almost certain the debt ceiling will be increased. The only question is when. No politicians, party in the US would want to be blamed for the US default.

This is just one of a good example of common sense in timing the market, rather than blindly buying at any time at any price. Another example is using indicator such as Fear and Greed index, along with other indicators if you want, but Fear and Greed index is already quite accurate. I have been using it this to time when to trigger the DCA generator and when to stop it when buying S&P500 using real money, not a paper account. I have not sold any of it as this is for long term investment, not for swing trading. So far so good. For trading I prefer to trade an individual stock.

People might want to back-test it and see whether it is suitable to their investing style. We take our own gain but we also responsible for our own loss.

NedS

NedS said:

No updates from me.

My position:

Shares: 18,000 shares at 422p = £75960

Cash: £16.09

Latest hypothetical drip feeding purchase on last day of month (30/4/2023):

1270 shares at 422p (last closing price) including 0.5% stamp duty and £11.95 trading fee (no £1 levy as less than £10k)

Price = £5398.15

CTY shares bought: 1270

CTY Share Total: 6400

Cash position: £48,216.30 - £ 5,398.15 = £42,818.15

Total Value: (6400 x 422p) + £42,818.15 cash = £69826.15

No updates from me.

My position:

Shares: 18,000 shares at 400p = £72,000

Cash: £16.09

Latest hypothetical drip feeding purchase on last day of month (31/5/2023):

1350 shares at 400p (last closing price) including 0.5% stamp duty and £11.95 trading fee (no £1 levy as less than £10k)

Price = £5,438.95

CTY shares bought: 1350

CTY Share Total: 7750

Cash position: £42,818.15 - £5,438.95 = £37,379.20

Total Value: (7750 x 400p) + £37,379.20 cash = £68379.20

The drip feeding strategy has closed the gap somewhat after my failure to sell at 430p (guilty of waiting for the dividend). An opportunity lost, but I did receive a healthy £909 dividend today.

coastline

Two months of sideways chop with very little volatility in the main SP 500. Held up by a few tech stocks as I posted earlier 11th May. Here's the full month.

Fxdky5SXoAY_ZB_ (900×495) (twimg.com)

S&P 500 Index, SPX Advanced Chart - (S&P US) SPX, S&P 500 Index Stock Price - BigCharts.com (marketwatch.com)

FTSE has been a bit more volatile and after 3 weeks of trading in the narrowest of ranges decided to slip in last few days. I still have more units than start of year but it's hardly been the best. Better results in my SIPP if I'd bought today I'd be up 8%. See what tomorrow brings. Can't win them all but 6 months to go.

FTSE 100 Index, UK:UKX Advanced Chart - (FTSE UK) UK:UKX, FTSE 100 Index Stock Price - BigCharts.com (marketwatch.com)

The FTSE is cheap but will it gain any ground.?

Six charts that show how cheap UK equities are (schroders.com)

Fundswire article | Trustnet

adindas

The debt ceiling Limit is pushed to June 5, 2023. So watch out.

It is just a political game, it is almost certain the debt ceiling will be increased. The only question is when. No politicians, party in the US would want to be blamed for the US default. Noone, No party want to be blamed for the default of the US.

coastline

coastline said:

coastline said:

coastline said:

coastline said:

Sold ISF.L at 765.40p today .Units sold 13,065 . Notional 100K is now £99,987.05p with the £12.95 fee.

 DATE    BUY/SELL   ISF.L    UNITS       VALUE           
18 JAN       SELL      765.40  13065     £99,987.05

BUY ISF.L  at 744.30

 DATE    BUY/SELL   ISF.L    UNITS       VALUE           
18 JAN       SELL      765.40  13065     £99,987.05
14 MAR      BUY       744.30  13432     £99,974.10

SELL ISF.L at 749.22

 DATE    BUY/SELL   ISF.L    UNITS       VALUE           
18 JAN       SELL      765.40  13065     £99,987.05
14 MAR      BUY       744.30  13432     £99,974.10
29 MAR      DIV            4.28   13432    £100,549
31 MAR      SELL      749.22  13432    £101,197.17

BUY ISF.L at 756.30

 DATE    BUY/SELL   ISF.L    UNITS       VALUE           
18 JAN       SELL      765.40  13065     £99,987.05
14 MAR      BUY       744.30  13432     £99,974.10
29 MAR      DIV            4.28   13432    £100,549
31 MAR      SELL      749.22  13432    £101,197.17
10 MAY       BUY       756.30  13379    £101,184.22 
15 JUNE     DIV           10.40  13379   £102,575.63 

SELL ISF.L at 747.86   

  DATE    BUY/SELL   ISF.L    UNITS       VALUE           
18 JAN       SELL      765.40  13065     £99,987.05
14 MAR      BUY       744.30  13432     £99,974.10
29 MAR      DIV            4.28   13432    £100,549
31 MAR      SELL      749.22  13432    £101,197.17
10 MAY       BUY       756.30  13379    £101,184.22 
16 JUNE     SELL      747.86  13379    £100,043.23
16 JUNE     DIV           10.40  13379    £101,434.65 

coastline

Another call based on the US moves. Last one was the mini banking crisis which turned out to be a poor call. Todays is based purely on the short term move higher in the US. All technical indicators are way overbought and my guess is it'll drag the rest down soon. Yes it hasn't got much to do with my mechanical system but sometimes gut feel comes into it. So we see.

FyxVdwxX0AMGdj- (900×900) (twimg.com)

FyxShjVWIA4_meX (482×680) (twimg.com)

The FTSE isn't as overbought but is heading there but I'm wary of the US markets as the main driver. Challenge started 18th of JAN and as you can see the index has gone nowhere. Well I'm no better but 6 months to go .

FTSE 100 Index, UK:UKX Advanced Chart - (FTSE UK) UK:UKX, FTSE 100 Index Stock Price - BigCharts.com (marketwatch.com)

Again related to the US there's a clear possibility that inflation and rates have peaked. The threat of a recession is still there in months to come but how deep ?. The consensus for earnings continues to be higher in 2024.

FyhmVQtX0AIRkSO (900×559) (twimg.com)

As earnings estimates have improved so have the markets which is clearly shown below. 

FyctkNEXwAAJP3G (900×556) (twimg.com)