I'm timing the market - who's in?

london21

Ok time will tell.

Let us know your predictions and the results. 

adindas said:

london21 said:

It is easier to look back and say should have done this and that.

Absolutely. But that is not the point for people who want to time the market. In many aspects in life not just the stock market people could forecast/predict the future by looking back and predict what MIGHT happen in the future. In maths it is called regression. How accurate the prediction will also depend in the historical data

In many thing in life you also rely on prediction/forecasting for instance, weather forecast. People predict recession by looking into inversion yield curve.

Like hearsay "History Doesn't Repeat Itself, but It Often Rhyme"s.

silvercue

I am always trying to time the market ...and not usually getting it right.   Maybe I focus too much on short-mid term

I moved money to my Cash portfolio on my ISA and decided to try and wait for a low point before moving to my S&S ISA, but kind of given up.  I will just transfer in next few weeks anywat.

What I really need to do is learn to take some profits and not worrying about whether the market is at the top...or trying to buy at the bottom.  It is just too difficult and usually costs me more in the long run.  Significantly buy missing some sell points late 2021

NedS

NedS said:

Updating the position for the drip feeding strategy as it's last day of month:

31/01/2023 purchase 1300 shares at 420.0p (the mid point of the days trades so far) including 0.5% stamp duty and £11.95 trading fee (no £1 levy as less than £10k)

Price = £5372.62

CTY shares bought: 1270

CTY Share Total: 2570

Cash position: £64,409.87 - £5372.62 = £59037.25

Total Value: (2570 x 420p) + £59037.25 cash = £69831.25

My position:

Shares: 0

Cash: £71,786.64

I'm currently up by £1,955 or 2.7% versus the drip feeding strategy after 1 month. Early days.

Updating the position for the drip feeding strategy for last day of month (Feb):

28/02/2023 purchase 1260 shares at 425.5p (the mid point of the days trades) including 0.5% stamp duty and £11.95 trading fee (no £1 levy as less than £10k)

Price = £5400.06

CTY shares bought: 1260

CTY Share Total: 3830

Cash position: £59037.25 - £5400.06 = £53637.19

Total Value: (3830 x 425.5p) + £53637.19 cash = £69993.84

My position:

Shares: 0

Cash: £71,786.64

The gap has closed, and SP has risen further making things fairly even at this stage.

I'm happy for the drip feeders to be buying more at these prices whilst I bide my time receiving 4% on my cash

NedS

Heads up, if this sell off continues we could enter a share price range that works for us. Still waiting patiently and watching the SP. Today's US trading will likely be key to where we go next.

adindas

I have not checked other indicators, but Extreme fear caused by the troubled SVB bank is what I need to make a quick decision at the moment.

I have started my DCA generator again in a smaller chunk for S&P500, using real money, not paper account. The time to buy is when there is a blood on the street, said the contrarian

People might want to wait until P/E ratio touch 15, but they have got to be very lucky if they could catch that moment. It might need another market crash to reach that.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sA0ok3jI-uI

Why SVB isn't a canary in the coal mine for regional banks, according to top analyst Gerard Cassidy CNBC Television Mar 9, 2023.

coastline

coastline said:

Sold ISF.L at 765.40p today .Units sold 13,065 . Notional 100K is now £99,987.05p with the £12.95 fee.

 DATE    BUY/SELL   ISF.L    UNITS       VALUE           
18 JAN       SELL      765.40  13065     £99,987.05

BUY ISF.L  at 744.30

 DATE    BUY/SELL   ISF.L    UNITS       VALUE           
18 JAN       SELL      765.40  13065     £99,987.05
14 MAR      BUY       744.30  13432     £99,974.10

Stargunner

coastline said:

coastline said:

Sold ISF.L at 765.40p today .Units sold 13,065 . Notional 100K is now £99,987.05p with the £12.95 fee.

 DATE    BUY/SELL   ISF.L    UNITS       VALUE           
18 JAN       SELL      765.40  13065     £99,987.05

BUY ISF.L  at 744.8

 DATE    BUY/SELL   ISF.L    UNITS       VALUE           
18 JAN       SELL      765.40  13065     £99,987.05
14 MAR      BUY       744.30  13432     £99,974.10

Bet you wished you waited another 24 hours

NedS

NedS said:

NedS said:

Updating the position for the drip feeding strategy as it's last day of month:

31/01/2023 purchase 1300 shares at 420.0p (the mid point of the days trades so far) including 0.5% stamp duty and £11.95 trading fee (no £1 levy as less than £10k)

Price = £5372.62

CTY shares bought: 1270

CTY Share Total: 2570

Cash position: £64,409.87 - £5372.62 = £59037.25

Total Value: (2570 x 420p) + £59037.25 cash = £69831.25

My position:

Shares: 0

Cash: £71,786.64

I'm currently up by £1,955 or 2.7% versus the drip feeding strategy after 1 month. Early days.

Updating the position for the drip feeding strategy for last day of month (Feb):

28/02/2023 purchase 1260 shares at 425.5p (the mid point of the days trades) including 0.5% stamp duty and £11.95 trading fee (no £1 levy as less than £10k)

Price = £5400.06

CTY shares bought: 1260

CTY Share Total: 3830

Cash position: £59037.25 - £5400.06 = £53637.19

Total Value: (3830 x 425.5p) + £53637.19 cash = £69993.84

My position:

Shares: 0

Cash: £71,786.64

The gap has closed, and SP has risen further making things fairly even at this stage.

I'm happy for the drip feeders to be buying more at these prices whilst I bide my time receiving 4% on my cash

Bought back in today just below my target price:

My position:

Shares: 18,000 shares @ cost of £71,770.55 (18000 shares @ 396.67p + 0.5% Stamp Duty + £12.95 fees)

Cash: £16.09

That's a 5.88% gain (18000/17000 = 5.88%) from this round of volatility at no net cost. I am 1/3rd of the way to my target to get to a position of 20,000 with no new cash invested. As well as the 5.88% gain in share holding, my dividend income have just received a 5.88% boost too - very welcome given the current levels of inflation.

I'm now happy to hold at this level and wait for the next opportunity to add value through a trade, whilst continuing to receive my dividends. I'm not too bothered if the market drops further - it will recover, and I've met my target on this trade of 5-6% so I'm happy.

coastline

FTSE now back to the levels of MAY 2021 believe it or not. To be honest as the last wave was so flat I didn't expect to get in below , maybe 2% higher. That's the way it goes and my latest entry point is again underwater but system was on oversold . That's all you can do unless you wait until it's above the 10 day moving average then you risk a bad entry point. End of the day I still have more units in ISF.L than before and remember it's only March. Keep saying there's half a dozen chances a year at least. So we move on.
See how far away the moving average is ? 

iShares Core FTSE 100 UCITS ETF, UK:ISF Advanced Chart - (LON) UK:ISF, iShares Core FTSE 100 UCITS ETF Stock Price - BigCharts.com (marketwatch.com)

CTY is also oversold and similar on my favoured IC chart set up.

 City of London Investment Trust PLC, UK:CTY Advanced Chart - (LON) UK:CTY, City of London Investment Trust PLC Stock Price - BigCharts.com (marketwatch.com)

A few things I've picked up especially the likes of this. % of stocks above 50day moving average on NYSE is just 15. That's back to levels last seen on the lows last year.

 Public ChartLists | StockCharts.com

What's going on isn't QT looking at the official charts as there's been $250bn added this week alone. 

 FrXmkIhWIA0rzqd (900×457) (twimg.com)

FrXstxUX0AY6pfC (900×548) (twimg.com)

2 year view of FTSE and SP500 without dividends.

FTSE 100 Index, UK:UKX Advanced Chart - (FTSE UK) UK:UKX, FTSE 100 Index Stock Price - BigCharts.com (marketwatch.com)

NedS

coastline said:

FTSE now back to the levels of MAY 2021 believe it or not. To be honest as the last wave was so flat I didn't expect to get in below , maybe 2% higher. That's the way it goes and my latest entry point is again underwater but system was on oversold . That's all you can do unless you wait until it's above the 10 day moving average then you risk a bad entry point. End of the day I still have more units in ISF.L than before and remember it's only March. Keep saying there's half a dozen chances a year at least. So we move on.

Exactly - there are multiple opportunities every year and I'm sure there will be another couple of really good opportunities before the end of the year, so just sit tight and wait for them to come along.

With CTY there was a 7.75% drop from the top of the market at around 430p down to today's low of 396.67p and I managed to capture 5.88% of that fall, so I'm happy with that. I sold a little early, but hindsight is a wonderful thing. As I said at the outset, if I can successfully execute 3 trades at around 5-6% I will be more than happy, adding 15% plus to an investment that otherwise pays me 5% yield (not to mention compounding). I'm happy to just keep chipping away with 5% each time - it all mounts up over time.

If anything, the current high interest rates have made things easier as the risk of lost dividend income can be offset by interest payments whilst out of the market - and if trades happen to fall between dividends then that's even better as you get paid twice!