I'm timing the market - who's in?

solidpro

NedS said:

So my PostIt note now says CTY: 370p target, looking to add 2,000 shares to take me to my 20,000 share target (albeit with new capital that I would then seek to recover through future trading rather than increasing my holding further, so this is kind of a leverage trade).

I'm totally catching up here. I've read the first and last page of this thread. So am I right in thinking you've picked out CTY as a share that regularly bounces between 375-440p and you're simply trying to buy low and sell high, aiming to reach 20,000 shares total from your starting point of 17,000 without spending any extra cash?

I'm in, except I'll start at zero. I've put a buy order of 400 shares at 375p. Let's see how it goes.

NedS

solidpro said:

NedS said:

So my PostIt note now says CTY: 370p target, looking to add 2,000 shares to take me to my 20,000 share target (albeit with new capital that I would then seek to recover through future trading rather than increasing my holding further, so this is kind of a leverage trade).

I'm totally catching up here. I've read the first and last page of this thread. So am I right in thinking you've picked out CTY as a share that regularly bounces between 375-440p and you're simply trying to buy low and sell high, aiming to reach 20,000 shares total from your starting point of 17,000 without spending any extra cash?

I'm in, except I'll start at zero. I've put a buy order of 400 shares at 375p. Let's see how it goes.

Yep, that's it.

@coastline is playing along too, but using a FTSE100 ETF in place of CTY as their vehicle of choice.

Additionally, another poster favoured a drip feeding approach, so I took a notional cash balance equating to my 17,000 shares on Jan 1st, and have been notionally drip feeding that in over the 12 months on the last day of each month, so we can compare strategies at the end of the 12 months.

coastline

Well I'm no expert but try to use the TA tools to time the market. So far up around 5% on the FTSE 100 index.
What I mentioned in my previous post still stands the FTSE indicators and the SPX indicators are out of sync. This is the second time in three weeks so throwing my judgement a bit. Got the last call correct but a little underwater today with the US moves. Look at the RSI and Stochastic both on the top at overbought. Probability suggests lower but doesn't have to play out as its all tea leaves at the end of the day.

$SPX | SharpCharts | StockCharts.com

My favoured settings for the SP 500 on the top and curling down.

S&P 500 Index, SPX Advanced Chart - (S&P US) SPX, S&P 500 Index Stock Price - BigCharts.com (marketwatch.com)

ISF at a more advanced stage . "out of sync" as I said.

iShares Core FTSE 100 UCITS ETF, UK:ISF Advanced Chart - (LON) UK:ISF, iShares Core FTSE 100 UCITS ETF Stock Price - BigCharts.com (marketwatch.com)

same with FTSE

FTSE 100 Index, UK:UKX Advanced Chart - (FTSE UK) UK:UKX, FTSE 100 Index Stock Price - BigCharts.com (marketwatch.com)

CTY

City of London Investment Trust PLC, UK:CTY Advanced Chart - (LON) UK:CTY, City of London Investment Trust PLC Stock Price - BigCharts.com (marketwatch.com)

Does the SP 500 drag everything a bit lower or maybe the FTSE consolidates around here. Nobody knows but the FTSE is certainly having a poor run .
Bond yields are going up US and UK and others.

United States Government Bond 10Y - 2023 Data - 1912-2022 Historical - 2024 Forecast (tradingeconomics.com)

United Kingdom Government Bond 10Y - 2023 Data - 1980-2022 Historical - 2024 Forecast (tradingeconomics.com)

UK has certainly reacted to this but SP500 has held up with the Tech stocks. That's been a major factor in the US this year. No big tech stocks in the FTSE.

Equal weighted top chart and SP500 bottom. both different.

F0YHYKkX0AAPtrd (900×634) (twimg.com)

coastline

coastline said:

coastline said:

coastline said:

coastline said:

coastline said:

coastline said:

Sold ISF.L at 765.40p today .Units sold 13,065 . Notional 100K is now £99,987.05p with the £12.95 fee.

 DATE    BUY/SELL   ISF.L    UNITS       VALUE           
18 JAN       SELL      765.40  13065     £99,987.05

BUY ISF.L  at 744.30

 DATE    BUY/SELL   ISF.L    UNITS       VALUE           
18 JAN       SELL      765.40  13065     £99,987.05
14 MAR      BUY       744.30  13432     £99,974.10

SELL ISF.L at 749.22

 DATE    BUY/SELL   ISF.L    UNITS       VALUE           
18 JAN       SELL      765.40  13065     £99,987.05
14 MAR      BUY       744.30  13432     £99,974.10
29 MAR      DIV            4.28   13432    £100,549
31 MAR      SELL      749.22  13432    £101,197.17

BUY ISF.L at 756.30

 DATE    BUY/SELL   ISF.L    UNITS       VALUE           
18 JAN       SELL      765.40  13065     £99,987.05
14 MAR      BUY       744.30  13432     £99,974.10
29 MAR      DIV            4.28   13432    £100,549
31 MAR      SELL      749.22  13432    £101,197.17
10 MAY       BUY       756.30  13379    £101,184.22 
15 JUNE     DIV           10.40  13379   £102,575.63 

SELL ISF.L at 747.86   

  DATE    BUY/SELL   ISF.L    UNITS       VALUE           
18 JAN       SELL      765.40  13065     £99,987.05
14 MAR      BUY       744.30  13432     £99,974.10
29 MAR      DIV            4.28   13432    £100,549
31 MAR      SELL      749.22  13432    £101,197.17
10 MAY       BUY       756.30  13379    £101,184.22 
16 JUNE     SELL      747.86  13379    £100,043.23
16 JUNE     DIV           10.40  13379    £101,434.65 

BUY ISF.L AT 725.80

  DATE    BUY/SELL   ISF.L    UNITS       VALUE           
18 JAN       SELL      765.40  13065     £99,987.05
14 MAR      BUY       744.30  13432     £99,974.10
29 MAR      DIV            4.28   13432    £100,549
31 MAR      SELL      749.22  13432    £101,197.17
10 MAY       BUY       756.30  13379    £101,184.22 
16 JUNE     SELL      747.86  13379    £100,043.23
16 JUNE     DIV           10.40  13379    £101,434.65 
23 JUNE     BUY        725.80  13973    £101,421.70

SELL ISF.L at 736.10

 DATE    BUY/SELL   ISF.L    UNITS       VALUE           
18 JAN       SELL      765.40  13065     £99,987.05
14 MAR      BUY      744.30  13432     £99,974.10
29 MAR      DIV          4.28   13432     £100,549
31 MAR      SELL     749.22  13432     £101,197.17
10 MAY      BUY      756.30  13379     £101,184.22 
16 JUNE     SELL      747.86  13379     £100,043.23
16 JUNE     DIV         10.40  13379     £101,434.65 
23 JUNE     BUY      725.80   13973     £101,421.70
19 JULY     SELL     736.10   13973     £102,842.30

coastline

coastline said:

coastline said:

coastline said:

coastline said:

coastline said:

coastline said:

coastline said:

Sold ISF.L at 765.40p today .Units sold 13,065 . Notional 100K is now £99,987.05p with the £12.95 fee.

 DATE    BUY/SELL   ISF.L    UNITS       VALUE           
18 JAN       SELL      765.40  13065     £99,987.05

BUY ISF.L  at 744.30

 DATE    BUY/SELL   ISF.L    UNITS       VALUE           
18 JAN       SELL      765.40  13065     £99,987.05
14 MAR      BUY       744.30  13432     £99,974.10

SELL ISF.L at 749.22

 DATE    BUY/SELL   ISF.L    UNITS       VALUE           
18 JAN       SELL      765.40  13065     £99,987.05
14 MAR      BUY       744.30  13432     £99,974.10
29 MAR      DIV            4.28   13432    £100,549
31 MAR      SELL      749.22  13432    £101,197.17

BUY ISF.L at 756.30

 DATE    BUY/SELL   ISF.L    UNITS       VALUE           
18 JAN       SELL      765.40  13065     £99,987.05
14 MAR      BUY       744.30  13432     £99,974.10
29 MAR      DIV            4.28   13432    £100,549
31 MAR      SELL      749.22  13432    £101,197.17
10 MAY       BUY       756.30  13379    £101,184.22 
15 JUNE     DIV           10.40  13379   £102,575.63 

SELL ISF.L at 747.86   

  DATE    BUY/SELL   ISF.L    UNITS       VALUE           
18 JAN       SELL      765.40  13065     £99,987.05
14 MAR      BUY       744.30  13432     £99,974.10
29 MAR      DIV            4.28   13432    £100,549
31 MAR      SELL      749.22  13432    £101,197.17
10 MAY       BUY       756.30  13379    £101,184.22 
16 JUNE     SELL      747.86  13379    £100,043.23
16 JUNE     DIV           10.40  13379    £101,434.65 

BUY ISF.L AT 725.80

  DATE    BUY/SELL   ISF.L    UNITS       VALUE           
18 JAN       SELL      765.40  13065     £99,987.05
14 MAR      BUY       744.30  13432     £99,974.10
29 MAR      DIV            4.28   13432    £100,549
31 MAR      SELL      749.22  13432    £101,197.17
10 MAY       BUY       756.30  13379    £101,184.22 
16 JUNE     SELL      747.86  13379    £100,043.23
16 JUNE     DIV           10.40  13379    £101,434.65 
23 JUNE     BUY        725.80  13973    £101,421.70

SELL ISF.L at 736.10

 DATE    BUY/SELL   ISF.L    UNITS       VALUE           
18 JAN       SELL      765.40  13065     £99,987.05
14 MAR      BUY      744.30  13432     £99,974.10
29 MAR      DIV          4.28   13432     £100,549
31 MAR      SELL     749.22  13432     £101,197.17
10 MAY      BUY      756.30  13379     £101,184.22 
16 JUNE     SELL      747.86  13379     £100,043.23
16 JUNE     DIV         10.40  13379     £101,434.65 
23 JUNE     BUY      725.80   13973     £101,421.70
19 JULY     SELL     736.10   13973     £102,842.30

BUY ISF.L at 727.20

DATE    BUY/SELL   ISF.L    UNITS       VALUE           
18 JAN       SELL      765.40  13065     £99,987.05
14 MAR      BUY      744.30   13432     £99,974.10
29 MAR      DIV          4.28    13432     £100,549
31 MAR     SELL     749.22   13432     £101,197.17
10 MAY      BUY      756.30   13379     £101,184.22 
16 JUNE    SELL     747.86  13379      £100,043.23
16 JUNE     DIV        10.40   13379      £101,434.65 
23 JUNE    BUY      725.80   13973      £101,421.70
19 JULY    SELL     736.10   13973      £102,842.30
15 AUG     BUY      727.20   14140      £102,829.35

Stargunner

Your TA tools don’t appear to be giving you the correct  information, as down to 715 now.

NedS

Sorry, not been very active here lately. I'm just sitting tight atm.

Looking back, I note:

NedS said:

So my PostIt note now says CTY: 370p target, looking to add 2,000 shares to take me to my 20,000 share target (albeit with new capital that I would then seek to recover through future trading rather than increasing my holding further, so this is kind of a leverage trade).

and we are again facing the prospect of reaching those levels, so I'm placing cash on standby. I'll review the charts over the weekend to see if my 370p target still looks reasonable.

NedS

Stargunner said:

Your TA tools don’t appear to be giving you the correct  information, as down to 715 now.

Maybe, but they have added 8.23% in value by increasing the number of units they hold at no additional cost (14140/13065*100) through their trading strategy over a buy and hold, and that is the point of the exercise. We are trying to determine if we can add value by trying to time the market over someone simply spending time in the market.

Given that global equity markets typically return an average of 8-10% per year, @coastline has effectively doubled those market returns. I'd be very happy with that. Would you be happy to pay an active fund manager who outperforms their index by 8-10% per year?

coastline

Stargunner said:

Your TA tools don’t appear to be giving you the correct  information, as down to 715 now.

Very true ,nothings perfect ,but in active trading you've got make the calls. Active fund managers time the market , CGTrust times the market even Multi Asset Funds do similar . They don't always call it right yet investors are happy to give them billions.
If you look at my original list above the initial purchase was 100K less fee £12.95 and 13065 units bought in ISF.L at 765.4p. Dividends so far would be £1,918. Today at 717p those same 13065 units would be worth £93,676 + DIV of £1,918 = £95,594. As I've been trading and investing dividends I have 14140 units at 717p = £101,384. That's up 6% on original total.
The system itself can only guide and shows short term overbought/oversold readings using TA lower indicators.The moving average is there as a stop loss. At times I use gut feel and I've called wrong at least twice so there's one problem otherwise I'd be up over 10% now in a falling market. Look below at MID JULY I called SELL at 736 . If I'd used the system the moving average wasn't broken until 750. A wrong call.

iShares Core FTSE 100 UCITS ETF, UK:ISF Advanced Chart - (LON) UK:ISF, iShares Core FTSE 100 UCITS ETF Stock Price - BigCharts.com (marketwatch.com)

Recent purchase at 727 is underwater and maybe if I'd used at tighter 5MA for buying then I'd still be in cash. So we'd have the indicators and 10day MA for the SELL guide and indicators and 5dayMA for the BUY guide. Hope that makes sense.?

iShares Core FTSE 100 UCITS ETF, UK:ISF Advanced Chart - (LON) UK:ISF, iShares Core FTSE 100 UCITS ETF Stock Price - BigCharts.com (marketwatch.com)

Nebulous2

Nebulous2 said:

This is a bit rich and clever for me - I'm already sort of retired, so reluctant to play with my future to that extent. 

However -are you using limit orders? 

I've got £15k in a SIPP, which I've built up from my part-time earnings since retiring. Its building at £500 a month. I left it in cash until June, when I dipped a toe in the water by buying some VWRP at around £76.50. As luck would have it, I bought these first ones on more or less the low for the year. They went up and I set a target of £80 to buy more. At some point I got fed-up waiting for them to drop and bought some at over that, but then I got some more at under it. I'm currently £380 up with an average price under £80 and less than £1k in cash left. 

What I've been doing, if they are close to my target, is setting a limit order. So they'll be at £80.50 and I'll ask to buy £3k at 79.90 first thing in the morning. I've set a limit 8-10 times and only been successful 3 times.  The limit with Fidelity expires at the end of the day, but it means I can gain from any mid-day fluctuations, such as a rise in the £. On one occasion my order was filled at less than any price I saw showing for the day. 

Apologies if I'm teaching my granny to suck eggs, but you could set a limit regularly, say to sell 2000 shares at 426, and leave the market to perform, or not....  

I've been intending joining in this, on a smaller scale. Up until now I've done nothing at all. Somehow it is a bigger hill to climb when it is real money on the table.  I had intentions of selling at £90.00, but that hasn't materialised.

Meantime my cash has been building at £500 a month until I had just over £2500.

I've bought 29 shares today at £84.79 with a limit order. I set the limit rather hurriedly at my work, when the price was £85.12.

I now have 220 shares valued at £84.68 or £18,629.60. 

£194.97 still in cash.