The Great Debate. EV's will cost less than petrol cars over 5 years. 2 January at 12:57PM in Motoring 71 replies 2K views

Bachelorplace

I just heard that someone from Auto trader say on BBC Radio 4 that EVS work out cheaper over 5 years than petrol cars overall?

I might need to be corrected here but surely that's utter nonsense when you add it all up?

Typhoon2000

If you are buying new, and running it over plenty of miles then that may well be true. If like me you normally spend £4K on a car and run it for 5years, then no.
Also I do all the maintenance on my car, but in newer everything is electronic and needs to be plugged into a dealers computer so would cost me extra too. So will be sticking with small used petrol cars for the foreseeable future.

EssexExile

It's not that simple is it? I read recently that charging up on the public network is approaching the cost of fuel for a petrol car, if you need to do that a lot then I don't see how you get back the high initial cost of the car. On the other hand if you always charge at home on one of the cheaper tariffs or, even better at work for nothing, then perhaps things will even out.

mgfvvc

EssexExile said:

It's not that simple is it?

Exactly. It's like the mythical average energy bill. If your situation exactly matches their assumptions then it's correct. In the real world your situation is unlikely to exactly match their assumptions, so your outcome will not exactly match their outcome.

MikeJXE

Bachelorplace said:

I just heard that someone from Auto trader say on BBC Radio 4 that EVS work out cheaper over 5 years than petrol cars overall?

I might need to be corrected here but surely that's utter nonsense when you add it all up?

I remember that being a said about petrol V diesel it's all about getting you to buy Electric, something I will never do unless forced

Car_54

Bachelorplace said:

I just heard that someone from Auto trader say on BBC Radio 4 that EVS work out cheaper over 5 years than petrol cars overall?

I might need to be corrected here but surely that's utter nonsense when you add it all up?

It may or may not be nonsense, if he is basing it on the last five years. But no-one has any idea what will happen with energy prices or tax over the next five years, which is what matters.

oldagetraveller1

Have they accounted for the much larger purchase price when buying new or just the cost of getting from A to B etc.? What about the deterioration of the battery over 5 years too?

If it's "someone from Autotrader" and on the BBC then it must be true!

"something I will never do unless forced"

Nor me, I'm not falling for the propaganda.

Martyn1981

Loads of variables, so will depend on the person, their vehicle choice, and particularly mileage.

Currently leccy prices are high, but will come back down when European gas demand is reduced to negate Russian supplies, so could be several more years.

If you drive little, then the fuel savings won't make up for the difference in cost. If you drive higher mileage, then savings are much better, at cheap overnight rates, you may be driving for around 1.5p - 5p /mile. But ironically, at the moment, if you drive huge distances, then you will need to rapid charge (away from home), and those prices are painful, whereas they used to be just  'high' at 20-30p/kWh, so perhaps 5p to 10p/mile.

Maintenance is low, brake pads last forever, servicing is minimal.

So depeciation becomes an issue. BEV's cost more to buy (although they aren't far off when comparing higher priced BEV's to their competition), but tend to depreciate less. But even that can be interesting, as it's based on supply and demand for BEV's, and various Gov manipulations, so perhaps they will slip more in the future. Alternatively, as BEV sales rise to 30-50% of new car sales as we get to mid decade, then ICEV's values may fall, if folk are fearful of buying the 'old' technology, when they become 2 or 3yrs old.

US comparisons over 5yrs, where average mileage is higher than in the UK, tend to show that BEV's are the cheapest, ICEV's in second place, and PHEV's come last, since their fuel savings are smaller, but you have all the complexity, cost and weight of two drivetrains.

Battery degradation should be minimal over 5yrs of normal UK use. But the earliest Nissan Leaf 24kWh models (about 10yrs ago) suffered badly. At the opposite end, Tesla's batts should be good for 300-500k miles, before the batts lose perhaps 20% of range, and then secondary use of batts for stationary storage is possible.

Horses for courses.

Bachelorplace

I did wonder why the BBC actually said the words Auto trader, who are not experts btw they are a retailer who sells cars. Seems to me the representative "expert" was just doing his best to vilify all the advertisers on the website that don't sell EVs. How delighted those advertisers must be. 

Bias on the BBC's part, bias on the website too from the looks of it. Agenda... it appears so. 

Lets have a look at an example: 

BMW I4, its an EV over 60 months will cost £50,416 at £840.00 pm
BMW 420i over 60 months will cost £32,340 at £539.00pm

This is over 40,000 miles on both cars. So already the EV is £18076 more expensive over the same period.

DrEskimo

oldagetraveller1 said:

Have they accounted for the much larger purchase price when buying new or just the cost of getting from A to B etc.? What about the deterioration of the battery over 5 years too?

If it's "someone from Autotrader" and on the BBC then it must be true!

"something I will never do unless forced"

Nor me, I'm not falling for the propaganda.

What about it? We have 3 6-year old EVs in the family. Battery degradation has no noticeable affect on the range of any of them. So how does that impact our costs?

Bachelorplace said:

I did wonder why the BBC actually said the words Auto trader, who are not experts btw they are a retailer who sells cars. Seems to me the representative "expert" was just doing his best to vilify all the advertisers on the website that don't sell EVs. How delighted those advertisers must be. 

Bias on the BBC's part, bias on the website too from the looks of it. Agenda... it appears so. 

Lets have a look at an example: 

BMW I4, its an EV over 60 months will cost £50,416 at £840.00 pm
BMW 420i over 60 months will cost £32,340 at £539.00pm

This is over 40,000 miles on both cars. So already the EV is £18076 more expensive over the same period.

That's the purchase price, you need to factor in the higher resale value and compare depreciation costs. The higher value EV will unsurprisingly have a higher resale value relative to the petrol over its life.

DrEskimo

I haven't had my Zoe for 5-years, but coming up to the end of the 4th year next month and happy to lay out my costs co far:

Purchase price (Feb-2019): £14,500

Year 1
Service: Free
Maintenance: £0
Insurance: £250
Fuel: ~£40
VED: £0

Year 2
Service: Free
Maintenance: £36 (Tracking)
Insurance: £250
Fuel: ~£25
MOT: £55
VED: £0

Year 3
Service: £120
Maintenance: £206 (2 x tyres)
Insurance: £300
Fuel: ~£70
MOT: £40
Warranty: £309
VED: £0

Year 4
Service: £120
Maintenance: £0
Insurance: £350
Fuel: ~£150
MOT: £40
Warranty: £359
VED: £0

Total to date
Service: £240
Maintenance: £242
Insurance: £1,150
Fuel: ~£285
MOT: £135
Warranty: £668
VED: £0

Based on AT, the current valuation is £12,590 ( I think this is very conservative. I have never seen a battery owned 41kWh Zoe for sale for under £14k).
Depreciation: £1,910

Total cost of ownership: £4,650

Since petrol alone would be about £2,500, and insurance and MOT would be identical, and would add around £600 in VED, assuming the same level of depreciation on a Clio, the ICE is already £2k more expensive before you factor in servicing or maintenance.