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The Great Debate. EV's will cost less than petrol cars over 5 years.

209 Posts


in Motoring
I just heard that someone from Auto trader say on BBC Radio 4 that EVS work out cheaper over 5 years than petrol cars overall?
I might need to be corrected here but surely that's utter nonsense when you add it all up?
I might need to be corrected here but surely that's utter nonsense when you add it all up?
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Also I do all the maintenance on my car, but in newer everything is electronic and needs to be plugged into a dealers computer so would cost me extra too. So will be sticking with small used petrol cars for the foreseeable future.
Currently leccy prices are high, but will come back down when European gas demand is reduced to negate Russian supplies, so could be several more years.
If you drive little, then the fuel savings won't make up for the difference in cost. If you drive higher mileage, then savings are much better, at cheap overnight rates, you may be driving for around 1.5p - 5p /mile. But ironically, at the moment, if you drive huge distances, then you will need to rapid charge (away from home), and those prices are painful, whereas they used to be just 'high' at 20-30p/kWh, so perhaps 5p to 10p/mile.
Maintenance is low, brake pads last forever, servicing is minimal.
So depeciation becomes an issue. BEV's cost more to buy (although they aren't far off when comparing higher priced BEV's to their competition), but tend to depreciate less. But even that can be interesting, as it's based on supply and demand for BEV's, and various Gov manipulations, so perhaps they will slip more in the future. Alternatively, as BEV sales rise to 30-50% of new car sales as we get to mid decade, then ICEV's values may fall, if folk are fearful of buying the 'old' technology, when they become 2 or 3yrs old.
US comparisons over 5yrs, where average mileage is higher than in the UK, tend to show that BEV's are the cheapest, ICEV's in second place, and PHEV's come last, since their fuel savings are smaller, but you have all the complexity, cost and weight of two drivetrains.
Battery degradation should be minimal over 5yrs of normal UK use. But the earliest Nissan Leaf 24kWh models (about 10yrs ago) suffered badly. At the opposite end, Tesla's batts should be good for 300-500k miles, before the batts lose perhaps 20% of range, and then secondary use of batts for stationary storage is possible.
Horses for courses.
For general PV advice please see the PV FAQ thread on the Green & Ethical Board.
Bias on the BBC's part, bias on the website too from the looks of it. Agenda... it appears so.
Lets have a look at an example:
BMW I4, its an EV over 60 months will cost £50,416 at £840.00 pm
BMW 420i over 60 months will cost £32,340 at £539.00pm
This is over 40,000 miles on both cars. So already the EV is £18076 more expensive over the same period.
That's the purchase price, you need to factor in the higher resale value and compare depreciation costs. The higher value EV will unsurprisingly have a higher resale value relative to the petrol over its life.
Purchase price (Feb-2019): £14,500
Year 1
Service: Free
Maintenance: £0
Insurance: £250
Fuel: ~£40
VED: £0
Year 2
Service: Free
Maintenance: £36 (Tracking)
Insurance: £250
Fuel: ~£25
MOT: £55
VED: £0
Year 3
Service: £120
Maintenance: £206 (2 x tyres)
Insurance: £300
Fuel: ~£70
MOT: £40
Warranty: £309
VED: £0
Year 4
Service: £120
Maintenance: £0
Insurance: £350
Fuel: ~£150
MOT: £40
Warranty: £359
VED: £0
Total to date
Service: £240
Maintenance: £242
Insurance: £1,150
Fuel: ~£285
MOT: £135
Warranty: £668
VED: £0
Based on AT, the current valuation is £12,590 ( I think this is very conservative. I have never seen a battery owned 41kWh Zoe for sale for under £14k).
Depreciation: £1,910
Total cost of ownership: £4,650
Since petrol alone would be about £2,500, and insurance and MOT would be identical, and would add around £600 in VED, assuming the same level of depreciation on a Clio, the ICE is already £2k more expensive before you factor in servicing or maintenance.