The Great Debate. EV's will cost less than petrol cars over 5 years.

mgfvvc

Freecall said:

All true, along with dozens or even hundreds of other parameters which offer pro's and con's.

I was simpy summarising the collective result of these points which is so obvious that anybody can easily see, EV's are better.

I cant speak for anyone else, but I would discount it as an unsupported over-simplification, in the same way I would discount any unsupported assertion that petrol, hydrogen or horse drawn carriages are simply better.

Car_54

mgfvvc said:

Freecall said:

All true, along with dozens or even hundreds of other parameters which offer pro's and con's.

I was simpy summarising the collective result of these points which is so obvious that anybody can easily see, EV's are better.

I cant speak for anyone else, but I would discount it as an unsupported over-simplification, in the same way I would discount any unsupported assertion that petrol, hydrogen or horse drawn carriages are simply better.

Indeed. I have no prospect of charging at home, so I cannot see how a car which requires me to find a public charging point and spending xxx minutes waiting is by any stretch of the imagination “better” than the traditional alternative.
BTW I am not anti-EV. I actually have a PHEV, and know from experience that finding and using a public charger is far froM easy, even in one of the more prosperous urban areas.

Freecall

mgfvvc said:

Freecall said:

All true, along with dozens or even hundreds of other parameters which offer pro's and con's.

I was simpy summarising the collective result of these points which is so obvious that anybody can easily see, EV's are better.

I cant speak for anyone else, but I would discount it as an unsupported over-simplification, in the same way I would discount any unsupported assertion that petrol, hydrogen or horse drawn carriages are simply better.

And of course, so would I.

But let's lighten up, have a bit of fun and not take the debate too seriously.

The real point is that endlessly quoting facts and figures gets nowhere with this kind of issue.  People have opinions and when we have each decided what our opinion is, we can all justify it with what we like to think of as solid data.

At the end of the day, sweeping statements such as I have put forward are intended to add a bit of fun to the debate and in their own way represent a form of unobscured honesty.

Enjoy!

ididgetwhereiamtoday

Anyone on the fence about going EV really needs to have a test drive. They are fantastic to drive. Even your cheapest and oldest EVs are like driving an older luxurious big engined V6 auto petrol car.

MikeJXE

So your are saying an old EV is better to drive than my 2016 Jaguar XE

That costs a lot less to buy

That does 50+ to the gallon

Is like riding on air.

Is effortless to drive 

Has parking sensors and rear view camera 

Heated leather electric seats

Doesn't need a driveway to get cheaper energy 

Can be recharged with fuel in less than 5 minutes 

I don't thinks so

JKenH

silverwhistle said:

Herzlos said:

There's no reason to think that a new EV bought in 2023 will have a battery failure before an average scrappage age of 14 years. Certainly it's no higher risk than the engine completely failing.

As for depreciation - who knows?. 

Exactly. I don’t think we can make any meaningful predictions as to how EVs will fare in terms of depreciation compared to ICE cars. There has in recent years been much speculation by EV enthusiasts that ICE cars will be worthless but currently they are holding up well, certainly against the EVs that were available in bulk 3 years ago. In the first half of 2022 many secondhand EVs were selling above their cost when new but since then there has been a sharp reversal of fortunes. My 40kWh Nissan Leaf cost me £23.5k in March 2020 and in October 2022 WBAC offered me £20,685 for it. Since then the WBAC offer has dropped to £14k.

I got a WBAC valuation in May on a 69 plate 14k miles Tesla SR+ of £43k. Today that same car is £27,745.

Meanwhile my 20 plate petrol Golf went from £15k in November to £14,550 in December to £14,645 today.

There is a lot of market turbulence at the moment, initiated by supply shortages during the pandemic. Some o& the manufacturers like Tesla and Nissan (for different reasons) were able to supply significant quantities of cars to business purchasers and fleets and these cars are now coming off lease and flooding the market at a time when many potential EV buyers are just hesitating because of the current high cost of electricity and other pressures on household budgets. Many ICE manufacturers were struggling to sell cars (whether this was down to parts shortages or a rotation of demand into EVs doesn’t matter) so there are less 3 year old ICE cars coming onto the market than usual at a time when used car buyers are still predominantly looking for ICE cars. Less supply has meant ICEv values have held up well. In the future as EVs take over the new car market there will be less ICEvs available secondhand so unless used EV demand keeps up with new EV demand there will be a shortage of ICE cars coming into the market and over supply of used EVs. I am not saying that will happen but it might.

My point is not actually about the present state of the market but rather how rapidly things can alter as a result of minor changes (in this case over/under supply) in an elastic market. Just as we can never predict what the stock market will do (we can speculate), we should refrain from making predictions about the future based on what is happening today. The world didn’t see the pandemic coming or the Ukraine war and 10 years ago we didn’t see EVs taking the market share they did today or 6 months ago the sudden reversal of fortunes in the used car market.

So, as you say, as for depreciation- who knows?

JKenH

ididgetwhereiamtoday said:

Anyone on the fence about going EV really needs to have a test drive. They are fantastic to drive. Even your cheapest and oldest EVs are like driving an older luxurious big engined V6 auto petrol car.

Yes, that was my impression. I enjoyed driving my Leaf so much I got rid of my Golf and Mercedes. I wasn’t ever going to have an ICE car again. Almost 3 years on I am back in a Golf - the Leaf has gone. I certainly miss it in traffic but you have to live with cars and public charging the Leaf killed the EV dream for me. 

I drove my daughter and family from Lincolnshire to Manchester airport last night in the Golf and the whole journey I was thinking just how much more relaxing it was not having to plan charging stops and cope with broken and occupied chargers. The Golf probably saved me a couple of hours and I was able to get back in time to sit down and enjoy a relaxing bite to eat and a a bit of TV with my wife rather than go straight to bed. I put a value on that; others might not.

The financial arguments are moot. 

Whether an EV is a better car for you all depends on your personal circumstances and lifestyle. 

ididgetwhereiamtoday

MikeJXE said:

So your are saying an old EV is better to drive than my 2016 Jaguar XE

That costs a lot less to buy

That does 50+ to the gallon

Is like riding on air.

Is effortless to drive 

Has parking sensors and rear view camera 

Heated leather electric seats

Doesn't need a driveway to get cheaper energy 

Can be recharged with fuel in less than 5 minutes 

I don't thinks so

I think so yes, Even an old top spec Leaf has all those luxuries and is effortless to drive. 360' cameras are brilliant when parking.
It's lovely never needing to go to the petrol station too.

Grumpy_chap

ididgetwhereiamtoday said:

It's lovely never needing to go to the petrol station too.

I'm always unsure whether this one really is a benefit.

Yes, I'd love not to have to go to the petrol station.
When I do, however, I sit in my car until I can use a pump, then drive up, and am undercover (dry) and well-lit even if it is cold and windy.  It is not every journey.

If I had an EV, at the end of the journey arriving home from work, I have to park-up and in the cold, dark, windy weather collect the cables from the car, plug in and then the next morning (or later in the night) take the wet cables, wrap them up, get my hands dirty and put the cables away in the boot somewhere, so everything is getting wet inside the car also.  Not something I really want to have to do at either end of the day when I have my suit on.  I guess it will be better if the EV has a frunk, so the cables can go in there leaving the actual boot clean.

Please do not get me wrong on this, I really do want my next car to be an EV if possible.  I am genuinely unsure whether faffing around with cables before and after every journey to work really is easier or timesaving in total compared to a once-weekly (perhaps even twice-weekly) petrol fill.

JKenH

ididgetwhereiamtoday said:

MikeJXE said:

So your are saying an old EV is better to drive than my 2016 Jaguar XE

That costs a lot less to buy

That does 50+ to the gallon

Is like riding on air.

Is effortless to drive 

Has parking sensors and rear view camera 

Heated leather electric seats

Doesn't need a driveway to get cheaper energy 

Can be recharged with fuel in less than 5 minutes 

I don't thinks so

I think so yes, Even an old top spec Leaf has all those luxuries and is effortless to drive. 360' cameras are brilliant when parking.
It's lovely never needing to go to the petrol station too.

Everything you say about the Leaf is true. Mine worked perfectly for me for 90% of my journeys but I had so many issues with chargers in the last year of ownership that I bought a petrol Golf Estate for the journeys outside its range. I was going to keep the Leaf as a second car even though  the economics didn’t really stack up but my son was looking for a 40kWh to replace his 30kWh Leaf so it made sense to let him have mine rather than incur the £2k or so dealer’s margin to change. Lucky for us we moved the 30kWh Leaf on before prices collapsed.

The Leaf makes a perfect family car if you also have an ICEv for the long runs or even as a sole car if it suits your lifestyle. On the Leaf forums and Facebook group many owners happily make epic cross country trips even in 24kWh models but it’s not my idea of fun anymore than swimming in the sea on New Years Day. When I was much, much younger I drove an open top sports car with no heater 250 miles in freezing conditions. When I got kids I had a 4 seat BMW convertible before another succession of open top 2 seaters. I was passionate about open top sports cars and couldn’t understand why everyone didn’t want to drive them. As I got older I grew to prefer a roof over my head and aircon and Volvos and Mercedes displaced the MGs, TVRs and Loti.

I entirely understand why you love EVs. Their benefits to you outweigh any inconvenience of public charging. I also understand why @MikeJXE prefers his Jag. We all have different priorities and passions and our choices are the ones that work for us.