Mail online article about how the rolling blackouts will be planned and implemented.

doodling

Hi,

victor2 said:

doodling said:

[...]

The most likely cause of blackouts this winter is a shortage of electrical power as a result of a shortage of power stations.  That will have nothing to do with gas shortages in the UK and is more related to longer term issues in the way the power supply industry is "guided" by government. Fundamentally we have been replacing power stations which we can turn on and off as required with power stations which turn on and off depending on whether the wind is blowing, without doing any of the other things necessary to enable such a transition to take place.

[...]

Quite a lot of our electricity is generated by gas, as national statistics show:

So a gas shortage could result in an electricity shortage.

You are absolutely correct that a gas shortage woild result in an electricity shortage.  My point is that a gas shortage in the UK is unlikely this winter.

The most likely cause of power shortages in the UK this winter is a simple lack of power generation capability.

Normally we buy electricity from Europe to cover for this but the French are having problems with many of their nuclear power stations and the rest of northern Europe is a lot more likely to suffer gas shortages than us so any gas powered generation in Europe is likely to be used sparingly. As a consequence there is a real possibility that we might not be able to buy electricity from Europe when we need it.  If that inability to buy power coincides with low wind conditions then there may not be enough generation in the UK to meet peak demand.

This issue is only obliquely caused by the war in Ukraine, the fundamental cause is that we have replaced power stations which operate when we want them to with power stations which only work when the wind blows and have covered for that by buying power from Europe.  This year Europe may not be able to provide that cover (which is only partially due to Ukraine).