Mail online article about how the rolling blackouts will be planned and implemented.

GaleSF63

Apodemus said:

Miser1964 said:

Ministers 'war game' emergency plans to cope with WEEK-LONG blackouts | Daily Mail Online

Whitehall documents warn food and water supplies, transport and communications could be disrupted for seven days in a national power outage amid fears of an energy winter shortage.

Programme Yarrow prepares for a situation more severe than that outlined by National Grid last month, which warned of three-hour rolling blackouts.

Governments and Local Authorities have to make sure they have emergency plans in place and be able to cope with some extreme scenarios.  The press love to spread alarm about these plans being in place and equally love to spread alarm if they hear that no plans are in place.  

Is what you are saying is that these plans exist all the time, but the media are blowing things up by implying that it's all being done to prepare for this winter?

victor2

GaleSF63 said:

Apodemus said:

Miser1964 said:

Ministers 'war game' emergency plans to cope with WEEK-LONG blackouts | Daily Mail Online

Whitehall documents warn food and water supplies, transport and communications could be disrupted for seven days in a national power outage amid fears of an energy winter shortage.

Programme Yarrow prepares for a situation more severe than that outlined by National Grid last month, which warned of three-hour rolling blackouts.

Governments and Local Authorities have to make sure they have emergency plans in place and be able to cope with some extreme scenarios.  The press love to spread alarm about these plans being in place and equally love to spread alarm if they hear that no plans are in place.  

Is what you are saying is that these plans exist all the time, but the media are blowing things up by implying that it's all being done to prepare for this winter?

One of their many ways of making up stories. Doubtless there is a government plan for dealing with all-out nuclear war. Shame there wasn't one for a global pandemic!

Alnat1

Yes, governments and many businesses make contingency plans for things that "might" happen and they need to be kept up to date. Doesn't mean they are any more likely to happen soon.

It's only like doing fire drills really and we all accept they are necessary.

EssexHebridean

victor2 said:

GaleSF63 said:

Apodemus said:

Miser1964 said:

Ministers 'war game' emergency plans to cope with WEEK-LONG blackouts | Daily Mail Online

Whitehall documents warn food and water supplies, transport and communications could be disrupted for seven days in a national power outage amid fears of an energy winter shortage.

Programme Yarrow prepares for a situation more severe than that outlined by National Grid last month, which warned of three-hour rolling blackouts.

Governments and Local Authorities have to make sure they have emergency plans in place and be able to cope with some extreme scenarios.  The press love to spread alarm about these plans being in place and equally love to spread alarm if they hear that no plans are in place.  

Is what you are saying is that these plans exist all the time, but the media are blowing things up by implying that it's all being done to prepare for this winter?

One of their many ways of making up stories. Doubtless there is a government plan for dealing with all-out nuclear war. Shame there wasn't one for a global pandemic!

Of course there is (war), and there WAS a plan for a pandemic - it's just that like so many things, there are always things that are only learned when going through the experience. Should a further pandemic occur inside the next, say, 25 years, then we should be far better prepared for it as the world will still be "generally" in the same shape it was in when the previous one occurred. The issue this time was that the only previous real world experience to base things on was from an event 100 years ago - at a time when things were very very different. (Not least because inter-country and certainly inter-continental travel were very rare then).Logic says that a lot can be based on projections and assumptions, but sometimes those projections prove to be wildly inaccurate because the trajectory of the pandemic veers unexpectedly. 

But yes - as to this article, for a start it's in the Daily Fail - are people still SERIOUSLY giving that rag any credence whatsoever?! 

Alnat1 said:

Yes, governments and many businesses make contingency plans for things that "might" happen and they need to be kept up to date. Doesn't mean they are any more likely to happen soon.

It's only like doing fire drills really and we all accept they are necessary.

Good point - how many of us genuinely believe that in the event of an actual fire things would pan out as they do in company fire drills? They wouldn't, of course, because *panic* etc, but ultimately doing those drills does give a base to work from. If there was really a loud crackling noise from further down the stairwell, and smoke swirling about, Sue from accounts would be standing still and screaming, Linda from sales would be flapping about needing her phone and refusing to leave without it, and the Directors would all be outside trying to shift their BMW's and Mercedes away from the building! 

Apodemus

victor2 said:

GaleSF63 said:

Apodemus said:

Miser1964 said:

Ministers 'war game' emergency plans to cope with WEEK-LONG blackouts | Daily Mail Online

Whitehall documents warn food and water supplies, transport and communications could be disrupted for seven days in a national power outage amid fears of an energy winter shortage.

Programme Yarrow prepares for a situation more severe than that outlined by National Grid last month, which warned of three-hour rolling blackouts.

Governments and Local Authorities have to make sure they have emergency plans in place and be able to cope with some extreme scenarios.  The press love to spread alarm about these plans being in place and equally love to spread alarm if they hear that no plans are in place.  

Is what you are saying is that these plans exist all the time, but the media are blowing things up by implying that it's all being done to prepare for this winter?

One of their many ways of making up stories. Doubtless there is a government plan for dealing with all-out nuclear war. Shame there wasn't one for a global pandemic!

There was at least one plan for a global pandemic and much of it was implemented.  The main problem was that it was based on (perfectly valid) assumptions for a flu pandemic and Covid behaved in a different way.  Like all wars, the Government started-out fighting the previous conflict before learning about the new threat and updating the plans. 

deano2099

 I seem to remember early in the pandemic there were news stories about a pandemic planning exercise that had happened and certain ministers refusing to take it seriously or attend. 

The_Green_Hornet

The Guardian also have an article about Programme Yarrow, and theirs is an exclusive apparently.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/nov/01/government-tests-energy-blackout-emergency-plans-as-supply-fears-grow

Chrysalis

Absolutely baffling is no campaign to tell people to turn down those thermostats.

doodling

Hi,

Chrysalis said:

Absolutely baffling is no campaign to tell people to turn down those thermostats.

Why?  If those thermostats are on gas heating systems then it is unlikely to have a beneficial effect (other than the cost to the consumer).  Shortage of gas, whilst not an impossible occurrence is not a likely outcome in the UK.

The most likely cause of blackouts this winter is a shortage of electrical power as a result of a shortage of power stations.  That will have nothing to do with gas shortages in the UK and is more related to longer term issues in the way the power supply industry is "guided" by government. Fundamentally we have been replacing power stations which we can turn on and off as required with power stations which turn on and off depending on whether the wind is blowing, without doing any of the other things necessary to enable such a transition to take place.

If blackouts do occur then they will most likely occur at peak times.  The schedule published in the ESEC (and replicated in this thread and the Daily Mail) is unlikely to be implemented as written, in particular blackouts at weekends and overnight (in fact any time that isn't between 15:00 and 21:00 on a weekday) are improbable.

victor2

doodling said:

Hi,

Chrysalis said:

Absolutely baffling is no campaign to tell people to turn down those thermostats.

Why?  If those thermostats are on gas heating systems then it is unlikely to have a beneficial effect (other than the cost to the consumer).  Shortage of gas, whilst not an impossible occurrence is not a likely outcome in the UK.

The most likely cause of blackouts this winter is a shortage of electrical power as a result of a shortage of power stations.  That will have nothing to do with gas shortages in the UK and is more related to longer term issues in the way the power supply industry is "guided" by government. Fundamentally we have been replacing power stations which we can turn on and off as required with power stations which turn on and off depending on whether the wind is blowing, without doing any of the other things necessary to enable such a transition to take place.

If blackouts do occur then they will most likely occur at peak times.  The schedule published in the ESEC (and replicated in this thread and the Daily Mail) is unlikely to be implemented as written, in particular blackouts at weekends and overnight (in fact any time that isn't between 15:00 and 21:00 on a weekday) are improbable.

Quite a lot of our electricity is generated by gas, as national statistics show:

So a gas shortage could result in an electricity shortage.