Energy rationing

artyboy

jimjames said:

NoobSolar said:

Thanks everyone. It seems a great pity that the generation of green and massively distributed electricity gets axed too as it was part of the solution!  And very few domestic installations feature islanding.

Likely to be evenings when load is highest so solar won't actually be working anyway

Unless of course you have some form of local storage like a Powerwall... but I guess that will only be a very very small minority of solar users

NoobSolar

Power walls I believe (stress believe, not certain) will operate in a black out

TheBanker

Malkytheheed said:

Nope, still doesn't make any sense. 

I'll ask again. Why, in the one winter when we are pretty much ALL cutting back in some form or another is it suggested we might have balckouts or rationing? 

Why this winter over all other previous "high usage" winters. 

This just doesn't make sense. 

If I use an analogy. It's like Tesco selling snickers bars no problem every year. Then the one year people actually are making an effort to eat less Snickers bars are we suddenly told "Yeah there might be no Snickers bars at points". It defies logic. 

One of the main ingredients of Snickers is peanuts. Imagine there's a global peanut shortage, this means not as many Snickers bars can be produced. Even if people cut back, this could lead to a situation where there are not enough Snickers bars to go around. It is currently impossible to predict how much people will actually cut back, especially given other variables like the weather. 

And domestic consumption is only part of the equation - very high commercial users already have their electricity rationed during times of peak demand, so there's less cloth to cut there. 

As per my previous post you are focused on demand, when the problem is with supply.

The key word in your post is 'might'. Nobody is saying we are certain to have problems, they are saying problems are plausible, so it makes sense to have plans in place to deal with them before they happen. 

NoobSolar

Hence the hasty moves to try to reopen the Rough storage site. Which have just now only just been agreed and will be done ages in the future, too late to benefit the current situation. All those empty gasometers are starting to look like slightly more than the nostalgic legacy of an industrial past.

Malkytheheed

TheBanker said:

Malkytheheed said:

Nope, still doesn't make any sense. 

I'll ask again. Why, in the one winter when we are pretty much ALL cutting back in some form or another is it suggested we might have balckouts or rationing? 

Why this winter over all other previous "high usage" winters. 

This just doesn't make sense. 

If I use an analogy. It's like Tesco selling snickers bars no problem every year. Then the one year people actually are making an effort to eat less Snickers bars are we suddenly told "Yeah there might be no Snickers bars at points". It defies logic. 

One of the main ingredients of Snickers is peanuts. Imagine there's a global peanut shortage, this means not as many Snickers bars can be produced. Even if people cut back, this could lead to a situation where there are not enough Snickers bars to go around. It is currently impossible to predict how much people will actually cut back, especially given other variables like the weather. 

And domestic consumption is only part of the equation - very high commercial users already have their electricity rationed during times of peak demand, so there's less cloth to cut there. 

As per my previous post you are focused on demand, when the problem is with supply.

The key word in your post is 'might'. Nobody is saying we are certain to have problems, they are saying problems are plausible, so it makes sense to have plans in place to deal with them before they happen. 

But there isn't a global energy shortage? 
People forget Russia only produce something like 15% of the worlds gas. And as far as I know it doesn't export any electricity. 

pensionpawn

TheBanker said:

Malkytheheed said:

Deleted_User said:

This winter is likely to be colder than last winter - so more demand not less.

Power stations aren’t going to make less, but the ones we’ve closed are going to make nothing.

If we can’t buy enough gas for the country, it’s more likely to be reserved for the gas grid than burnt in power stations.

With all due respect. Noone has any idea of what type of winter we will have this year. Also this still doesn't answer my question as to why we would face blackouts or rationing when we haven't in the last 30 years. Why would demand be UP this winter of all winters? I don't recall rationing in 2009/2010 when it was incredibly cold. 

The problem isn't demand, it's supply. Our electricity generation capacity is heavily dependent on gas (right now 46% of our electricity is being generated by gas power stations). If there are shortages of gas, then these power stations will be out of action. Shortage of gas is a possibility due to the situation with Russia, leading to other countries chasing the same non-Russian supplies. 

I agree that demand is likely to drop due to the high prices - the question is whether the reduction in demand is enough to off-set any reduction in supply. And this needs to happen at a point in time - it is no use having surplus energy during the daytime if peak demand is in the evenings. 

You may see that our European neighbours are already taking more drastic measures, e.g. Spain has introduced laws limiting the temperature of air conditioning/heating of buildings to reduce power demand. Contrast to the UK where the government's approach seems to be to put their collective fingers in their ears!

However if Spain is anything like Greece, where I spent a week on holiday in June, there isn't a domestic solar panel in sight (to produce electricity rather than just heat water), which is at least something we seemed to have got right (although we could still do better) in this country. It's absolutely bonkers that countries that have so much reliable sunshine, and associate heat, don't have the means to locally convert that into green energy to cool down their buildings! 

TheBanker

Malkytheheed said:

TheBanker said:

Malkytheheed said:

Nope, still doesn't make any sense. 

I'll ask again. Why, in the one winter when we are pretty much ALL cutting back in some form or another is it suggested we might have balckouts or rationing? 

Why this winter over all other previous "high usage" winters. 

This just doesn't make sense. 

If I use an analogy. It's like Tesco selling snickers bars no problem every year. Then the one year people actually are making an effort to eat less Snickers bars are we suddenly told "Yeah there might be no Snickers bars at points". It defies logic. 

One of the main ingredients of Snickers is peanuts. Imagine there's a global peanut shortage, this means not as many Snickers bars can be produced. Even if people cut back, this could lead to a situation where there are not enough Snickers bars to go around. It is currently impossible to predict how much people will actually cut back, especially given other variables like the weather. 

And domestic consumption is only part of the equation - very high commercial users already have their electricity rationed during times of peak demand, so there's less cloth to cut there. 

As per my previous post you are focused on demand, when the problem is with supply.

The key word in your post is 'might'. Nobody is saying we are certain to have problems, they are saying problems are plausible, so it makes sense to have plans in place to deal with them before they happen. 

But there isn't a global energy shortage? 
People forget Russia only produce something like 15% of the worlds gas. And as far as I know it doesn't export any electricity. 

Before the current crisis, Europe imported around 45% of its gas from Russia. Whilst the UK imported much less, other countries are now chasing the same non-Russian supplies which means there's less to go around. 

You are mistaken to think about this as an electricity crisis - it's a gas crisis which causes an electricity crisis because our main source of electricity is gas power stations. If we had more nuclear plants, or still mined and burned coal, we wouldn't be in this situation (I am not suggesting either would be preferable, just trying to highlight that it's our dependency on gas, which is a global commodity, which is the source of the problems we're facing).

[Deleted User]

Malkytheheed said:

TheBanker said:

Malkytheheed said:

Nope, still doesn't make any sense. 

I'll ask again. Why, in the one winter when we are pretty much ALL cutting back in some form or another is it suggested we might have balckouts or rationing? 

Why this winter over all other previous "high usage" winters. 

This just doesn't make sense. 

If I use an analogy. It's like Tesco selling snickers bars no problem every year. Then the one year people actually are making an effort to eat less Snickers bars are we suddenly told "Yeah there might be no Snickers bars at points". It defies logic. 

One of the main ingredients of Snickers is peanuts. Imagine there's a global peanut shortage, this means not as many Snickers bars can be produced. Even if people cut back, this could lead to a situation where there are not enough Snickers bars to go around. It is currently impossible to predict how much people will actually cut back, especially given other variables like the weather. 

And domestic consumption is only part of the equation - very high commercial users already have their electricity rationed during times of peak demand, so there's less cloth to cut there. 

As per my previous post you are focused on demand, when the problem is with supply.

The key word in your post is 'might'. Nobody is saying we are certain to have problems, they are saying problems are plausible, so it makes sense to have plans in place to deal with them before they happen. 

But there isn't a global energy shortage? 
People forget Russia only produce something like 15% of the worlds gas. And as far as I know it doesn't export any electricity. 

If supply and demand are balanced, then supply drops by 15% (if that is the right number), doesn’t that mean there is a supply shortage?

That’s without considering transportation, quality etc.

It’s starting to look like you are wilfully choosing to not understand.

[Deleted User]

pensionpawn said:

TheBanker said:

Malkytheheed said:

Deleted_User said:

This winter is likely to be colder than last winter - so more demand not less.

Power stations aren’t going to make less, but the ones we’ve closed are going to make nothing.

If we can’t buy enough gas for the country, it’s more likely to be reserved for the gas grid than burnt in power stations.

With all due respect. Noone has any idea of what type of winter we will have this year. Also this still doesn't answer my question as to why we would face blackouts or rationing when we haven't in the last 30 years. Why would demand be UP this winter of all winters? I don't recall rationing in 2009/2010 when it was incredibly cold. 

The problem isn't demand, it's supply. Our electricity generation capacity is heavily dependent on gas (right now 46% of our electricity is being generated by gas power stations). If there are shortages of gas, then these power stations will be out of action. Shortage of gas is a possibility due to the situation with Russia, leading to other countries chasing the same non-Russian supplies. 

I agree that demand is likely to drop due to the high prices - the question is whether the reduction in demand is enough to off-set any reduction in supply. And this needs to happen at a point in time - it is no use having surplus energy during the daytime if peak demand is in the evenings. 

You may see that our European neighbours are already taking more drastic measures, e.g. Spain has introduced laws limiting the temperature of air conditioning/heating of buildings to reduce power demand. Contrast to the UK where the government's approach seems to be to put their collective fingers in their ears!

However if Spain is anything like Greece, where I spent a week on holiday in June, there isn't a domestic solar panel in sight (to produce electricity rather than just heat water), which is at least something we seemed to have got right (although we could still do better) in this country. It's absolutely bonkers that countries that have so much reliable sunshine, and associate heat, don't have the means to locally convert that into green energy to cool down their buildings! 

Spain are quite good at concentrated solar power though, and their wind farm control network is better than ours.

ariarnia

Malkytheheed said:

TheBanker said:

Malkytheheed said:

Nope, still doesn't make any sense. 

I'll ask again. Why, in the one winter when we are pretty much ALL cutting back in some form or another is it suggested we might have balckouts or rationing? 

Why this winter over all other previous "high usage" winters. 

This just doesn't make sense. 

If I use an analogy. It's like Tesco selling snickers bars no problem every year. Then the one year people actually are making an effort to eat less Snickers bars are we suddenly told "Yeah there might be no Snickers bars at points". It defies logic. 

One of the main ingredients of Snickers is peanuts. Imagine there's a global peanut shortage, this means not as many Snickers bars can be produced. Even if people cut back, this could lead to a situation where there are not enough Snickers bars to go around. It is currently impossible to predict how much people will actually cut back, especially given other variables like the weather. 

And domestic consumption is only part of the equation - very high commercial users already have their electricity rationed during times of peak demand, so there's less cloth to cut there. 

As per my previous post you are focused on demand, when the problem is with supply.

The key word in your post is 'might'. Nobody is saying we are certain to have problems, they are saying problems are plausible, so it makes sense to have plans in place to deal with them before they happen. 

But there isn't a global energy shortage? 
People forget Russia only produce something like 15% of the worlds gas. And as far as I know it doesn't export any electricity. 

okay shortage in europe. which is where we live. 

about half our electricity is made by burning gas (the peanuts in the snickers example). so a shortage of peanuts in europe means a shortage of snickers in europe. so your (and everyone else in your streets) only option is one shop on the other side of town that was already expensive because it imports in small quantities from America and now that's put up it's prices because it knows it's the only snickers shop in town.

and gas is more expensive and difficult to ship long distance than snickers.