Energy rationing

Malkytheheed

[Deleted User] said:

If everyone cuts back, and that’s including industrial users, then it will probably be alright.  UK generation surplus is already thin because we have shut down most of our old power stations.

You can’t rely on wind, so it doesn’t count so much into the calculations.

And in the industry there have been warnings more often than just this winter.

Yes but why is this even a discussion at all? Why are blackouts more likely this year than last? Surely they are less likely this year than ever, because we will be using less? Why are powerplants going to suddenly make less power? 

[Deleted User]

This winter is likely to be colder than last winter - so more demand not less.

Power stations aren’t going to make less, but the ones we’ve closed are going to make nothing.

If we can’t buy enough gas for the country, it’s more likely to be reserved for the gas grid than burnt in power stations.

Malkytheheed

Deleted_User said:

This winter is likely to be colder than last winter - so more demand not less.

Power stations aren’t going to make less, but the ones we’ve closed are going to make nothing.

If we can’t buy enough gas for the country, it’s more likely to be reserved for the gas grid than burnt in power stations.

With all due respect. Noone has any idea of what type of winter we will have this year. Also this still doesn't answer my question as to why we would face blackouts or rationing when we haven't in the last 30 years. Why would demand be UP this winter of all winters? I don't recall rationing in 2009/2010 when it was incredibly cold. 

[Deleted User]

Last winter was unusually mild - statistics would suggest that this one will likely be colder, exactly as i I stated.  Demand will likely be correspondingly higher than last year.

Last winter there were several warnings of blackout, and emergency procedures went into operation at least twice that I know of.

 The biggest difference is that this year the media and public have taken notice.

TheBanker

Malkytheheed said:

Deleted_User said:

This winter is likely to be colder than last winter - so more demand not less.

Power stations aren’t going to make less, but the ones we’ve closed are going to make nothing.

If we can’t buy enough gas for the country, it’s more likely to be reserved for the gas grid than burnt in power stations.

With all due respect. Noone has any idea of what type of winter we will have this year. Also this still doesn't answer my question as to why we would face blackouts or rationing when we haven't in the last 30 years. Why would demand be UP this winter of all winters? I don't recall rationing in 2009/2010 when it was incredibly cold. 

The problem isn't demand, it's supply. Our electricity generation capacity is heavily dependent on gas (right now 46% of our electricity is being generated by gas power stations). If there are shortages of gas, then these power stations will be out of action. Shortage of gas is a possibility due to the situation with Russia, leading to other countries chasing the same non-Russian supplies. 

I agree that demand is likely to drop due to the high prices - the question is whether the reduction in demand is enough to off-set any reduction in supply. And this needs to happen at a point in time - it is no use having surplus energy during the daytime if peak demand is in the evenings. 

You may see that our European neighbours are already taking more drastic measures, e.g. Spain has introduced laws limiting the temperature of air conditioning/heating of buildings to reduce power demand. Contrast to the UK where the government's approach seems to be to put their collective fingers in their ears!

Robin9

[Deleted User] said:

If we can’t buy enough gas for the country, it’s more likely to be reserved for the gas grid than burnt in power stations.

@Malkythehead

I think SparkyGrad's comment is the crunch

Malkytheheed

Nope, still doesn't make any sense. 

I'll ask again. Why, in the one winter when we are pretty much ALL cutting back in some form or another is it suggested we might have balckouts or rationing? 

Why this winter over all other previous "high usage" winters. 

This just doesn't make sense. 

If I use an analogy. It's like Tesco selling snickers bars no problem every year. Then the one year people actually are making an effort to eat less Snickers bars are we suddenly told "Yeah there might be no Snickers bars at points". It defies logic. 

ariarnia

Malkytheheed said:

[Deleted User] said:

If everyone cuts back, and that’s including industrial users, then it will probably be alright.  UK generation surplus is already thin because we have shut down most of our old power stations.

You can’t rely on wind, so it doesn’t count so much into the calculations.

And in the industry there have been warnings more often than just this winter.

Yes but why is this even a discussion at all? Why are blackouts more likely this year than last? Surely they are less likely this year than ever, because we will be using less? Why are powerplants going to suddenly make less power? 

normally we use more gas and electric over winter. ready for that we buy and store some gas over summer (no where near as much as we did in the 70s someone said we were down to a weeks worth for the country?) and energy companies also buy what they think customers will need in advance (hedging).

both of those things are like having an extra packet of something in the cupboard and paying into a christmas saving scheme. they don't mean you'll never run out but you have a bit of a cushion against forecast need.

companies havent been hedging because it's been so expensive and the global shortage means everyone is wanting the same gas/might run out at the same time. like we've all run down the cupboards and are trying to buy the same bread and milk. bread and milk are still being produced, but slower than they were before and demand is higher so there might be a couple of days where you have to drink black tea.  

[Deleted User]

What, you mean exactly like the logistics issues that have been causing empty shelves since Brexit?

jimjames

NoobSolar said:

Thanks everyone. It seems a great pity that the generation of green and massively distributed electricity gets axed too as it was part of the solution!  And very few domestic installations feature islanding.

Likely to be evenings when load is highest so solar won't actually be working anyway