EV Discussion thread

ABrass

Without data there's nothing to discuss.

The only data set that might answer these questions would be the IIHS report that's due late this year. In previous years (model year 2017) Tesla hasn't been included as they were such a small manufacturer. They might be in this year's report.

Basing anything on numbers as bad as the ones already included is worse than nothing.

There are millions of bad attempts to analyze this stuff. When you choose to repeat an article from elsewhere in this thread it is because you think it's worth sharing. That is an editorial decision, and in this case the decision was to repeat junk without thinking about it. I think we can do better.

michaels

JKenH said:

My own two penn’orth.

1. We don’t seem to have any truly reliable data on deaths involving Teslas or for any other makers.
2. There are a (disproportionately?) high number of reports of deaths involving Teslas in the media.
3. A proportion (I suspect but with no evidence) are more unusual (bizarre) than the average auto accidents. For example the numbers of Tesla’s colliding with emergency vehicles.
4. Tesla Deaths has, I suspect, rightly or wrongly, focussed in on deaths involving Teslas, possibly because of the frequency and bizarre nature of the accidents (both fatal and non fatal) involving Teslas and compiled a database of media reports. (By bizarre I mean reports of phantom braking and sudden unintended acceleration etc).
5. Tesla Deaths has then compared the number of Tesla deaths reported in the media with non Teslas and concluded that there are more deaths involving Teslas than deaths involving other manufacturers as a proportion of the vehicles on the road. 

6. Tesla deaths have reported their findings which, as with anything involving Tesla, found its way into the media.
7. Some readers have taken this as gospel and reached the conclusion that Teslas are the most dangerous cars on the road and reported the Tesla Death stats as evidence of this. Other readers have dismissed the statistics as false, irrelevant and produced solely for the purposes of discrediting Tesla.
8 The truth is usually somewhere in between the two extreme views.

My own thoughts: 
A. I have an open mind and if something gets flagged up involving a subject of interest to me, I usually consider it is looking into a bit further. 
B. I cannot find any other statistics to support the Tesla Deaths figures or directly refute them.
C. More than 46,000 people die in road crashes in the US each year and I cannot relate this to the figures published in the original linked article/table. The table does not represent the total number of deaths and it is not clear in the metric adopted. 

D. The statistics are incomplete and most probably biased because of the over reporting in the media of Tesla accidents in general.
E. My gut feeling FWIW is that there are perhaps more bizarre accidents involving Teslas than other vehicles, most probably because of the misuse of Autopilot by a very small proportion of drivers. 

F. I cannot say whether this translates into more fatalities although the fact that the NHTSA are looking into so many colllisions between Teslas and emergency vehicles suggests this may be the case.
G. I believe there may be a small sub set of younger Tesla drivers who are inexperienced and in whose hands a Tesla can be more dangerous because of its performance. I liken this to the hot hatch era of young drivers in the UK in the 1990s or whenever it was. (Basically showing off the performance of the car and getting it wrong, often with fatal consequences).
H. Because of the performance of Teslas I suspect average impact speeds may be higher hence more potential for fatalities (no evidence but from my own experience I have seen more Teslas driven at speed than say a Leaf).
I. I believe, based on crash test performance that if you are unlucky enough to be involved in an accident at any given speed you are likely to be safer in a Tesla than in another car.
J. I suspect that pedestrians and cyclists may fare better in a collision with a Tesla than most other cars at the same speed of impact. 

K. I believe the potential for accidents with cyclists and pedestrians at slow speed may be higher than for ICE cars because of the silent nature of EVs.
L. I remain concerned that while on balance the benefits of driver assistance systems on Teslas outweighs any drawbacks, the potential still exists for technology induced erratic behaviour and the potential for accidents at a higher level than in other cars. 

M. I believe that other ADAS systems on other cars, while not as competent in some aspects of automated driving may be less prone to technology induced erratic driving behaviour. 

N. Any comparisons here are intended for cars of similar age to the Teslas being considered

I'm mostly with AJ Brass on this one - the only data point we have is not clear in what it measures and self-stated to be biased so doe snot in any way inform.  Unlike your comments above that seem eminently sensible.

One thought, insurance premiums may be a very good guide to relative accident risk and severity - but obviously need to compare against similar cars and drivers - just because the average Tesla premium is more than the average Peugeot premium on its own won't tell us much but if Jo Blogs is asked to pay 100% more to insure a Model 3 performance than a BMW M3 might.

Perhaps we should all run insurance quotes on equivalent cars and see if there is a pattern.

1961Nick

michaels said:

JKenH said:

My own two penn’orth.

1. We don’t seem to have any truly reliable data on deaths involving Teslas or for any other makers.
2. There are a (disproportionately?) high number of reports of deaths involving Teslas in the media.
3. A proportion (I suspect but with no evidence) are more unusual (bizarre) than the average auto accidents. For example the numbers of Tesla’s colliding with emergency vehicles.
4. Tesla Deaths has, I suspect, rightly or wrongly, focussed in on deaths involving Teslas, possibly because of the frequency and bizarre nature of the accidents (both fatal and non fatal) involving Teslas and compiled a database of media reports. (By bizarre I mean reports of phantom braking and sudden unintended acceleration etc).
5. Tesla Deaths has then compared the number of Tesla deaths reported in the media with non Teslas and concluded that there are more deaths involving Teslas than deaths involving other manufacturers as a proportion of the vehicles on the road. 

6. Tesla deaths have reported their findings which, as with anything involving Tesla, found its way into the media.
7. Some readers have taken this as gospel and reached the conclusion that Teslas are the most dangerous cars on the road and reported the Tesla Death stats as evidence of this. Other readers have dismissed the statistics as false, irrelevant and produced solely for the purposes of discrediting Tesla.
8 The truth is usually somewhere in between the two extreme views.

My own thoughts: 
A. I have an open mind and if something gets flagged up involving a subject of interest to me, I usually consider it is looking into a bit further. 
B. I cannot find any other statistics to support the Tesla Deaths figures or directly refute them.
C. More than 46,000 people die in road crashes in the US each year and I cannot relate this to the figures published in the original linked article/table. The table does not represent the total number of deaths and it is not clear in the metric adopted. 

D. The statistics are incomplete and most probably biased because of the over reporting in the media of Tesla accidents in general.
E. My gut feeling FWIW is that there are perhaps more bizarre accidents involving Teslas than other vehicles, most probably because of the misuse of Autopilot by a very small proportion of drivers. 

F. I cannot say whether this translates into more fatalities although the fact that the NHTSA are looking into so many colllisions between Teslas and emergency vehicles suggests this may be the case.
G. I believe there may be a small sub set of younger Tesla drivers who are inexperienced and in whose hands a Tesla can be more dangerous because of its performance. I liken this to the hot hatch era of young drivers in the UK in the 1990s or whenever it was. (Basically showing off the performance of the car and getting it wrong, often with fatal consequences).
H. Because of the performance of Teslas I suspect average impact speeds may be higher hence more potential for fatalities (no evidence but from my own experience I have seen more Teslas driven at speed than say a Leaf).
I. I believe, based on crash test performance that if you are unlucky enough to be involved in an accident at any given speed you are likely to be safer in a Tesla than in another car.
J. I suspect that pedestrians and cyclists may fare better in a collision with a Tesla than most other cars at the same speed of impact. 

K. I believe the potential for accidents with cyclists and pedestrians at slow speed may be higher than for ICE cars because of the silent nature of EVs.
L. I remain concerned that while on balance the benefits of driver assistance systems on Teslas outweighs any drawbacks, the potential still exists for technology induced erratic behaviour and the potential for accidents at a higher level than in other cars. 

M. I believe that other ADAS systems on other cars, while not as competent in some aspects of automated driving may be less prone to technology induced erratic driving behaviour. 

N. Any comparisons here are intended for cars of similar age to the Teslas being considered

I'm mostly with AJ Brass on this one - the only data point we have is not clear in what it measures and self-stated to be biased so doe snot in any way inform.  Unlike your comments above that seem eminently sensible.

One thought, insurance premiums may be a very good guide to relative accident risk and severity - but obviously need to compare against similar cars and drivers - just because the average Tesla premium is more than the average Peugeot premium on its own won't tell us much but if Jo Blogs is asked to pay 100% more to insure a Model 3 performance than a BMW M3 might.

Perhaps we should all run insurance quotes on equivalent cars and see if there is a pattern.

That's 15 minutes of my life I won't get back but it was an interesting exercise. Cheapest quotes...

2021 Tesla Model 3 Performance £615 with Churchill

2021 BMW M4 £638 with Saga.

(Churchill wanted £1167 for the M3)

silvercar

1961Nick said:

michaels said:

JKenH said:

My own two penn’orth.

1. We don’t seem to have any truly reliable data on deaths involving Teslas or for any other makers.
2. There are a (disproportionately?) high number of reports of deaths involving Teslas in the media.
3. A proportion (I suspect but with no evidence) are more unusual (bizarre) than the average auto accidents. For example the numbers of Tesla’s colliding with emergency vehicles.
4. Tesla Deaths has, I suspect, rightly or wrongly, focussed in on deaths involving Teslas, possibly because of the frequency and bizarre nature of the accidents (both fatal and non fatal) involving Teslas and compiled a database of media reports. (By bizarre I mean reports of phantom braking and sudden unintended acceleration etc).
5. Tesla Deaths has then compared the number of Tesla deaths reported in the media with non Teslas and concluded that there are more deaths involving Teslas than deaths involving other manufacturers as a proportion of the vehicles on the road. 

6. Tesla deaths have reported their findings which, as with anything involving Tesla, found its way into the media.
7. Some readers have taken this as gospel and reached the conclusion that Teslas are the most dangerous cars on the road and reported the Tesla Death stats as evidence of this. Other readers have dismissed the statistics as false, irrelevant and produced solely for the purposes of discrediting Tesla.
8 The truth is usually somewhere in between the two extreme views.

My own thoughts: 
A. I have an open mind and if something gets flagged up involving a subject of interest to me, I usually consider it is looking into a bit further. 
B. I cannot find any other statistics to support the Tesla Deaths figures or directly refute them.
C. More than 46,000 people die in road crashes in the US each year and I cannot relate this to the figures published in the original linked article/table. The table does not represent the total number of deaths and it is not clear in the metric adopted. 

D. The statistics are incomplete and most probably biased because of the over reporting in the media of Tesla accidents in general.
E. My gut feeling FWIW is that there are perhaps more bizarre accidents involving Teslas than other vehicles, most probably because of the misuse of Autopilot by a very small proportion of drivers. 

F. I cannot say whether this translates into more fatalities although the fact that the NHTSA are looking into so many colllisions between Teslas and emergency vehicles suggests this may be the case.
G. I believe there may be a small sub set of younger Tesla drivers who are inexperienced and in whose hands a Tesla can be more dangerous because of its performance. I liken this to the hot hatch era of young drivers in the UK in the 1990s or whenever it was. (Basically showing off the performance of the car and getting it wrong, often with fatal consequences).
H. Because of the performance of Teslas I suspect average impact speeds may be higher hence more potential for fatalities (no evidence but from my own experience I have seen more Teslas driven at speed than say a Leaf).
I. I believe, based on crash test performance that if you are unlucky enough to be involved in an accident at any given speed you are likely to be safer in a Tesla than in another car.
J. I suspect that pedestrians and cyclists may fare better in a collision with a Tesla than most other cars at the same speed of impact. 

K. I believe the potential for accidents with cyclists and pedestrians at slow speed may be higher than for ICE cars because of the silent nature of EVs.
L. I remain concerned that while on balance the benefits of driver assistance systems on Teslas outweighs any drawbacks, the potential still exists for technology induced erratic behaviour and the potential for accidents at a higher level than in other cars. 

M. I believe that other ADAS systems on other cars, while not as competent in some aspects of automated driving may be less prone to technology induced erratic driving behaviour. 

N. Any comparisons here are intended for cars of similar age to the Teslas being considered

I'm mostly with AJ Brass on this one - the only data point we have is not clear in what it measures and self-stated to be biased so doe snot in any way inform.  Unlike your comments above that seem eminently sensible.

One thought, insurance premiums may be a very good guide to relative accident risk and severity - but obviously need to compare against similar cars and drivers - just because the average Tesla premium is more than the average Peugeot premium on its own won't tell us much but if Jo Blogs is asked to pay 100% more to insure a Model 3 performance than a BMW M3 might.

Perhaps we should all run insurance quotes on equivalent cars and see if there is a pattern.

That's 15 minutes of my life I won't get back but it was an interesting exercise. Cheapest quotes...

2021 Tesla Model 3 Performance £615 with Churchill

2021 BMW M4 £638 with Saga.

(Churchill wanted £1167 for the M3)

Supposedly, insurers are wary of Teslas because of the long wait for parts at the moment, so the cost of supplying a hire car for longer is more than other cars.

JKenH

Tesla M3P  Privilege  £469 Churchill £473

BMW M4 Tesco  £531 Saga £555

michaels

SO if Teslas are so (relatively) dangerous, why don't they cost more to insure?  Can't be they are quicker and cheaper to repair.

Perhaps you are more likely to die in a Tesla whereas in the BMW you are more likely to survive but need lifelong medical care?!

JKenH

Most RTAs are down to drivers rather than mechanical issues particularly in brand new cars which is what I got a quote for. I suspect that age plays a big part in it and maybe insurers think that in my eighth decade having engaged FSD I wouldn’t be able to climb into the back seat even if I wanted to. The driver risk is the same in each car and perhaps the fact that the  BMW costs £22k more than the Tesla accounts for the insurance price difference.

70sbudgie

Aren't cars advertised with insurance groups? To remove the driver element of insurance price comparisons? It is a long time since I've looked at insurance for anything other than me in my car - insurance costs didn't factor into my decision last time I bought a car.

1961Nick

So far the Model 3 & M4 quotes are in the same ballpark which isn't surprising considering they both have similar performance. The Model 3 is a bit cheaper to buy but more expensive to repair than an M4. 

1961Nick

The latest NTSB investigation comes to nothing...

Regulator says likely cause of Texas Tesla crash excess speed, driver impairment

08-02-2023 20:02

WASHINGTON, Feb 8 (Reuters) – ​The U.S. National Transportation Safety Board said on Wednesday the probable cause of an April 2021 Tesla crash that killed the driver and a passenger was the driver’s excessive speed and failure to control the 2019 Tesla Model S.

The NTSB cited the driver's impairment from alcohol intoxication in combination with the effects of two sedating antihistamines. Local police had said in 2021 they believed the crash occurred with no one in the driver's seat, raising questions about Tesla's driver-assistance systems. The NTSB probable cause findings did not reference Autopilot or any other advanced system. (Reporting by David Shepardson; Editing by Leslie Adler) ((David.Shepardson@thomsonreuters.com; 2028988324;)