EV Discussion thread

Martyn1981

Grumpy_chap said:

70sbudgie said:

Sorry, I meant future scenario. 

It has crossed my mind to wonder whether 1000 mile range is relevant in the UK, even if it becomes technically possible.

My reference was more that even if it (1000 mile range) does become a possibility, it would only apply to the high end new cars. At the moment, less than 20% of licensed cars are less than 3 years old. 

Ah, OK, thanks.

Martyn & I discussed the range a little earlier in the thread and we both seemed to agree that around 400 miles was about as good as you'd ever need.

But, just to be clear, that's just our opinion, and others may disagree. I think we were able to support it reasonably well though.

I'd actually go further, and suggest with a good rapid charging network, 300 miles of actual range may be an upper figure, but of course that becomes circular, since 70sbudgie's BiL's point was one with a poorer network, and the need (or BEV ability) to avoid it completely). And as mentioned, IMO, 200 as an upper figure for second cars.

And of course it's not helped, at all, by the extremely high leccy prices at the moment. So whilst TOU tariffs and PV help to negate this for home charging, for many, I can imagine that theoretical 1,000 mile BEV being an advantage at the moment.

Now I'm wondering where range may top out for higher priced BEV's. Perhaps 600(ish) will be an upper figure? Lucid offer ~500 miles for their slippery car, which achieves about 4.5miles/kWh, with a 112kWh pack. 

JKenH

Tesla hit with South Korea fine over range claims

The Korea Fair Trade Commission (KFTC) said that from August 2019 until recently, Tesla misrepresented the driving range, fuel efficiency, and functionality of its Superchargers on its official local website.

According to the KFTC, compared to what is promised online, the driving range of Tesla's cars can decrease by up to 50.5% in cold weather.

The South Korean consumer group said Tesla is the most affected and the driving range of the majority of EVs might drop by up to 40% in cold weather when the batteries need to be heated.

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1002275/tesla-hit-with-south-korea-fine-over-range-claims-1002275.html

70sbudgie

Another thought, if we start seeing cars with >100kWhr batteries, what will this do to home chargers? Will we start seeing rapid chargers (22kW) being installed at residential properties that have the higher capacity EVs? Or will those EV drivers be content with their car taking >12 hours to charge?

Will the knock on effect on the distribution infrastructure be more 3-phase properties? Or is this inevitable anyway because of heat pumps?

EricMears

70sbudgie said:

Another thought, if we start seeing cars with >100kWhr batteries, what will this do to home chargers? Will we start seeing rapid chargers (22kW) being installed at residential properties that have the higher capacity EVs? Or will those EV drivers be content with their car taking >12 hours to charge?

Will the knock on effect on the distribution infrastructure be more 3-phase properties? Or is this inevitable anyway because of heat pumps?

Having a >100kWhr battery wouldn't necessarily mean that the owner would need to put anything like 100kWh into it every day.  The normal charging regime would (still) be to replace whatever had been used over the last day or two and unless the car had been driven a very long way recently it would be unlikely to need anything like 12 hours to recharge.

I'd hesitate to offer myself as anything like 'normal',  but I tend to let my (62kWh) battery  drop down to around 40% then charge it to 80% unless anticipating a longer trip or deciding it was time to fully charge in order to balance cells.  No plans to upgrade to a larger battery any time soon but doubt that would change my pattern very much.

Exiled_Tyke

EricMears said:

70sbudgie said:

Another thought, if we start seeing cars with >100kWhr batteries, what will this do to home chargers? Will we start seeing rapid chargers (22kW) being installed at residential properties that have the higher capacity EVs? Or will those EV drivers be content with their car taking >12 hours to charge?

Will the knock on effect on the distribution infrastructure be more 3-phase properties? Or is this inevitable anyway because of heat pumps?

Having a >100kWhr battery wouldn't necessarily mean that the owner would need to put anything like 100kWh into it every day.  The normal charging regime would (still) be to replace whatever had been used over the last day or two and unless the car had been driven a very long way recently it would be unlikely to need anything like 12 hours to recharge.

I'd hesitate to offer myself as anything like 'normal',  but I tend to let my (62kWh) battery to drop down to around 40% then charge it to 80% unless anticipating a longer trip or deciding it was time to fully charge in order to balance cells.  No plans to upgrade to a larger battery any time soon but doubt that would change my pattern very much.

Is there a law of diminishing returns to consider here as well?  The larger the battery the more wieght is being carried around which for the most part won't be needed. So whilst increasing the battery size will of course increase range but won't range per kWh of battery diminish making larger and larger batteries less viable?

shinytop

70sbudgie said:

shinytop said:

Nobody has mentioned the elephant in the room (except maybe in passing). Most people can't, and will never be able to, afford a 400 mile range EV.  Even second hand; they just won't.  Ever. We need a charging infrastructure that properly supports real 200 mile EVs where drivers sometimes want to travel 3-400 miles.  

I keep saying this; most motorcycles have a range of much less than 200 miles but nobody cares because refuelling is quick and easy.  A 400 mile motorcycle is possible but nobody wants/needs one.     

This was part of our long conversation, but I realised my post had got a bit long to elaborate further. It is what I was referring to when I referenced a need to cater for the full range of motoring. The charging infrastructure needs to be good enough for EV versions of the current £200 banger (that new drivers use). Most of the time, they won't need to go further than 100 miles, but every so often they will want to do a 300 mile trip. Being young and carefree, they are less likely to be bothered about waiting an hour at a services for their car to charge, but they may be unwilling to wait for a charger to become available. 

In a scenario when the 20% of new cars are pushing 1000mile range (even if not quite there), there will be considerably more older EVs (1st and 2nd gen) that have significantly less than 200mile motorway speed range. They may not need motorway services regularly, but the current old ICE bangers will never be replaced if there isn't the infrastructure to support an EV equivalent.

The people I worry about are the families on maybe 1.5-2 times combined minimum wage, who can just about afford a £5-10k ICE car they rely on for work, school runs, family visits, days out, holidays, etc.  How are they going to afford a useable EV? 

ABrass

EVs are expensive because batteries are expensive. If they get cheaper then cheap EVs will be more of a thing.

When battery prices hit $100/kWh then the cars should be comparable. When they drop below that EVs will be cheaper than ICEs.

Let's not forget China's best selling car is the Wuling Mini at $4-5,000.

shinytop

ABrass said:

EVs are expensive because batteries are expensive. If they get cheaper then cheap EVs will be more of a thing.

When battery prices hit $100/kWh then the cars should be comparable. When they drop below that EVs will be cheaper than ICEs.

Let's not forget China's best selling car is the Wuling Mini at $4-5,000.

That's part of the story. They are expensive because they have to have big batteries because the charging infrastructure is poor. Big batteries need big cars and big cars are expensive.  Small cars attract less profit so manufacturers won't make them.

I do like the tiny city cars but I'm not sure many others in the UK do. 

ABrass

Larger batteries assume lots of things.

They imply lower cost per kWh, because otherwise they push the car price up too much and it hits sales.

They imply a smaller form factor, because otherwise you're building Humvees to carry the extra weight. Which do have 200kWh batteries.

They imply greater supply, because otherwise you're removing the potential to sell two cars, or even three.

I expect we'll see the top end of the market embrace larger batteries as those requirements are met, but the bottom end and the mass market end will be all about what's good enough for people at a price point.

I expect we'll actually see more short ranged models in the near future. With a general trend for the ranges to creep up over time.

silverwhistle

shinytop said:

I do like the tiny city cars but I'm not sure many others in the UK do. 

Whereas I don't see the point. In cities I use public transport and around home as an alternative I'll walk or cycle. But like this whole debate, different people have different needs, or should I say 'wants'. The carers from an agency who come round to the neighbours use city cars and that sort of usage is ideal.

When I bought my MG4 this autumn I suppose I could have gone for the long range model - I had the money in the bank for such a change - but I don't need it in usual practice. The standard range has an advertised range of 218 which adjusted for the practical issues is enough for me. Heading north it's got plenty enough range for the Oxford/Banbury/etc. hubs. The only time I've charged it out and about was on a very cold day, heavy right foot and wanted a little bit for security's sake and to test out CCS. Nipped in to Lidl for milk n'bits and by the time I got out had far more expensive electricity than I needed; not sure of peak rate but I saw 42kw on the charger's display before I left the car.

Model ranges have already expanded from Leaf or Zoe days, and if EVs haven't come down in size it's not an issue particular to them, although no doubt exacerbated by the new technology and battery cost complications.

The average mileage per annum is around 7K miles and although people talk about wanting 400 mile ranges I always bear in mind that 2 hours at UK motorway speeds is only 140 miles, and then I laugh, thinking of the local M27! Which, incidentally, could do with better charging. Charging is the key to allow for the smaller cheaper batteries that will do most of us most of the time.

Edit: Just seen this! https://www.wired.com/story/dear-electric-vehicle-owners-you-dont-need-that-giant-battery/