EV Discussion thread

Martyn1981

Exiled_Tyke said:

EricMears said:

70sbudgie said:

Another thought, if we start seeing cars with >100kWhr batteries, what will this do to home chargers? Will we start seeing rapid chargers (22kW) being installed at residential properties that have the higher capacity EVs? Or will those EV drivers be content with their car taking >12 hours to charge?

Will the knock on effect on the distribution infrastructure be more 3-phase properties? Or is this inevitable anyway because of heat pumps?

Having a >100kWhr battery wouldn't necessarily mean that the owner would need to put anything like 100kWh into it every day.  The normal charging regime would (still) be to replace whatever had been used over the last day or two and unless the car had been driven a very long way recently it would be unlikely to need anything like 12 hours to recharge.

I'd hesitate to offer myself as anything like 'normal',  but I tend to let my (62kWh) battery to drop down to around 40% then charge it to 80% unless anticipating a longer trip or deciding it was time to fully charge in order to balance cells.  No plans to upgrade to a larger battery any time soon but doubt that would change my pattern very much.

Is there a law of diminishing returns to consider here as well?  The larger the battery the more wieght is being carried around which for the most part won't be needed. So whilst increasing the battery size will of course increase range but won't range per kWh of battery diminish making larger and larger batteries less viable?

Yes, has to be an issue, plus the diminishing returns that Grumpy mentioned on the ever lower utilisation of the battery as it gets bigger. I can see batts reducing in mass and volume by perhaps 50% or more, with some of the hoped for battery developments, but even then, a larger (lighter) battery will weigh more than a smaller (lighter) battery.

michaels

It is quite multifactorial.
Just one example - suppose you could battery swap in a minute or so - what range would you need then.

Or how about future charge rate improvements - if you could fill 200 (proper) miles in less than 5 minutes would you still want a bigger battery?

With everything changing all the time it must be hard for anyone to invest in infrastructure build out.

Grumpy_chap

This article was on the landing page for BBC News website earlier today but has now slipped someway behind:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-64149130

It is the usual mix of good news spun to be bad. 
Most Tesla's sold in a year, but apparently not sold everything they can build so actually have some stock somewhere.
A bit of stuff about a fine for batteries doing less well in cold weather.

The bit that stuck out for me was this:
"Tesla also faces competition from traditional motor manufacturing giants such as Ford and General Motors, as well as newer entrants to the market like Rivian and Lucid in the US and China's BYD and Nio."
I find the reference to EV competition from Ford particularly odd as this is a company that stopped making half their car models (Ka, Fiesta, Mondeo, C-Max, S-Max, Galaxy, Edge, Mustang plus the Focus is on the sick bed with only a coupe of years to go) and their only EV is the Mustang Mach-E which has been problematic (to say the least).
GM don't seem to be faring much better for the growth of EV's.
Perhaps both companies have something big, bold, new around the corner that is not widely known yet?

JKenH

Grumpy_chap said:

This article was on the landing page for BBC News website earlier today but has now slipped someway behind:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-64149130

It is the usual mix of good news spun to be bad. 
Most Tesla's sold in a year, but apparently not sold everything they can build so actually have some stock somewhere.
A bit of stuff about a fine for batteries doing less well in cold weather.

The bit that stuck out for me was this:
"Tesla also faces competition from traditional motor manufacturing giants such as Ford and General Motors, as well as newer entrants to the market like Rivian and Lucid in the US and China's BYD and Nio."
I find the reference to EV competition from Ford particularly odd as this is a company that stopped making half their car models (Ka, Fiesta, Mondeo, C-Max, S-Max, Galaxy, Edge, Mustang plus the Focus is on the sick bed with only a coupe of years to go) and their only EV is the Mustang Mach-E which has been problematic (to say the least).
GM don't seem to be faring much better for the growth of EV's.
Perhaps both companies have something big, bold, new around the corner that is not widely known yet?

The problem for Tesla is that for sometime now the narrative has been that it is supply constrained and it could could sell all the vehicles it produced. As long as that was the case there seemed no limit to how high the share price could go. Now it has had to start cutting the prices of its models and offering incentives and is producing more vehicles than it can sell. That happens to all motor manufacturers at times so is nothing new so why are the knives out for Tesla? Basically because the premise that underwrote the massive share price no longer holds true and Tesla may now be seen as just another motor manufacturer so its Price to Earnings ratio which is typically 10x that of its competitors may need to adjust to the industry norms. 

At the same time its FSD is under fire from regulators as being misleading (California being the latest authority to weigh in) and Tesla seems no nearer having an autonomous driving offering. Robotaxis which were promised years ago and provided a further basis for high share price valuations aren’t likely to appear in the foreseeable future - at least not in a form much better than other manufacturers offerings.

On top of that of course is the Twitter s***storm which is alienating Tesla’s traditional progressive market base and COVID reeking havoc with the Chinese market. BYD and other Chinese manufacturers are expanding faster than Tesla which is causing Tesla to lose market share. 

Meanwhile Ford has increased its EV sales by more than 100% this year and has a couple of market leading offerings in the electric versions of the F150 and Transit. GM is also threatening to upset the EV world with its Ultium battery. 

Minnows, Ford and GM may be by comparison now with Tesla but once Nissan sold many more EVs than Tesla. 

Times change.

JKenH

Toyota's "Small SU EV" Concept Is Alive and Testing as a Production-Ready

Prototype

Rumour has it that Toyota will bring the bZ2X to market sooner than expected. Considering the concept was unveiled more than a year ago, and the prototype was spotted testing on public roads, we could expect a formal launch as soon as 2024.

https://www.autoevolution.com/news/toyota-s-small-su-ev-concept-is-alive-and-testing-as-a-production-ready-prototype-207658.html

JKenH

Used car prices fell by 1.5 per cent in December – and EVs continued to free-fall in value

https://cardealermagazine.co.uk/publish/used-car-prices-fell-by-1-5-per-cent-in-december-and-evs-continued-to-free-fall-in-value/276953

shinytop

michaels said:

It is quite multifactorial.
Just one example - suppose you could battery swap in a minute or so - what range would you need then.

Or how about future charge rate improvements - if you could fill 200 (proper) miles in less than 5 minutes would you still want a bigger battery?

With everything changing all the time it must be hard for anyone to invest in infrastructure build out.

150 miles and no! 

JKenH

Battery swap stations imply a degree of standardisation between manufacturers which might have happened if it had been planned from day one but too late now. Also battery swap stations are likely to require a greater investment than chargers and by implication a smaller network so likely to have to travel further out of one’s way to use one.

I might be wrong but I think that ship has sailed.

orbit500

shinytop said:

Nobody has mentioned the elephant in the room (except maybe in passing). Most people can't, and will never be able to, afford a 400 mile range EV.  Even second hand; they just won't.  Ever. We need a charging infrastructure that properly supports real 200 mile EVs where drivers sometimes want to travel 3-400 miles.  

I keep saying this; most motorcycles have a range of much less than 200 miles but nobody cares because refuelling is quick and easy.  A 400 mile motorcycle is possible but nobody wants/needs one.     

Firstly I’d never say never! Also my FJR1300 had a 25litre tank which was 300+ miles at a cruise.

JKenH

It’s Harder to Own an Electric Car Than Ever Before

I was quite surprised by the content of this video from ElectricVehicleMan whose YouTube channel is based on EVs. He has always been so pro EV. 

https://youtu.be/Vma-i7ZI4yg