EV Discussion thread

Grumpy_chap

JKenH said:

EV servicing revenues ‘very similar’ to ICE according to report

https://www.catmag.co.uk/article/ev-servicing-revenues-very-similar-to-ice-according-to-report/

I didn't read the article, but this does not surprise me.

In the same way as public EV charging seems to be priced more to match the equivalent cost per mile for fuel as an ICE, is it any surprise that the manufacturers look at car buyers used to spending £300 each service and pricing to match?

JKenH

Grumpy_chap said:

JKenH said:

EV servicing revenues ‘very similar’ to ICE according to report

https://www.catmag.co.uk/article/ev-servicing-revenues-very-similar-to-ice-according-to-report/

I didn't read the article, but this does not surprise me.

In the same way as public EV charging seems to be priced more to match the equivalent cost per mile for fuel as an ICE, is it any surprise that the manufacturers look at car buyers used to spending £300 each service and pricing to match?

More on this subject:

https://fleetworld.co.uk/evs-cost-22-less-to-service-than-ice-cars-new-data-shows/

JKenH

Queuing EV drivers being caught out by car park fines, warns AFP

https://fleetworld.co.uk/queuing-ev-drivers-being-caught-out-by-car-park-fines-warns-afp/

JKenH

Scrap the UK’s ban on petrols and diesels, politicians told

Not only Toyota, it seems. Now it’s the turn of BMW, Stellantis and Renault.

Oliver Zipse, chairman of the board of management at BMW and president of the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association, said: “Our story here is do not, either in the UK or through Brussels, put a policy in place that ends the combustion engine. I would urge the English politicians to review their strategy for ending the combustion engine in 2030 or 2035.”

https://www.autoexpress.co.uk/news/359086/scrap-uks-ban-petrols-and-diesels-politicians-told

silverwhistle

Grumpy_chap said:

There are several forumites that have the MG4 and all seem to leave positive comment - it is a new model so there are no "long term tests" as such yet.
The MG4 seems competitively priced and well-equipped.
I would want to check the safety ratings.
The MG4 (and the MG5) do seem to be attractive packages though.

I have an MG4 and although there is an issue with a breather, and an attendant oil leak from it, that is being dealt with. Apart from that I've been very pleased with it and although standard range easily does all my regular trips. Although the charging is not as fast as more expensive cars it is still a decent upgrade on the ZS I used to have. The long range model has faster charging and a different battery chemistry although off the top of my head I can't remember which, but those interested can research if that's important to them.

The safety rating has recently been issued and is 5.

Grumpy_chap

JKenH said:

Scrap the UK’s ban on petrols and diesels, politicians told

Not only Toyota, it seems. Now it’s the turn of BMW, Stellantis and Renault.

I'm not sure that I totally read the linked article in the same way.

The quote from BMW was "don't ban the ICE" but the quote from Stelantis was "don't introduce EURO 7" which does make some sense as it would allow all investment budgets to go into the EV development.

Whether or not ICE's are banned, the momentum may now be there that will drive an effective end in any case.  Manufacturers that do not offer a good EV range may soon see their ICE sales plummet and thus no revenue coming in to finance the development of the EV's and will go to the wall.  It will be a variation of the Osbourne Effect, except consumers have TESLA, VAG, and a range of Chinese manufacturers that will be offering the EV product without the need for the wait while the legacy manufacturers wake up and smell the coffee.

JKenH

Grumpy_chap said:

JKenH said:

Scrap the UK’s ban on petrols and diesels, politicians told

Not only Toyota, it seems. Now it’s the turn of BMW, Stellantis and Renault.

I'm not sure that I totally read the linked article in the same way.

The quote from BMW was "don't ban the ICE" but the quote from Stelantis was "don't introduce EURO 7" which does make some sense as it would allow all investment budgets to go into the EV development.

Whether or not ICE's are banned, the momentum may now be there that will drive an effective end in any case.  Manufacturers that do not offer a good EV range may soon see their ICE sales plummet and thus no revenue coming in to finance the development of the EV's and will go to the wall.  It will be a variation of the Osbourne Effect, except consumers have TESLA, VAG, and a range of Chinese manufacturers that will be offering the EV product without the need for the wait while the legacy manufacturers wake up and smell the coffee.

Yes, you are quite right about the quote from Carlos Tavares in that article but a week earlier he had been saying the EU’s proposed 2035 ban on fossil-fuel cars should be renegotiated to give hybrid models a greater role in the transition to zero-emission vehicles. 

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/stellantis-ceo-calls-talks-soften-eus-2035-fossil-fuel-car-ban-2022-10-17/

Grumpy_chap

Earlier in the day, I said the idea "don't introduce EURO 7" made sense as it would avoid investment spend going to ICE.

I actually thought about that more through the day, and a higher EURO 7 standard in 2025 might make sense along with keeping the ICE ban for new vehicles from 2030 as a tool to drive faster conversion to EV.
This would work if manufacturers realised the folly of investment to improve ICE so simply ditch any ICE-equipped cars that can't easily meet the EURO 7 requirements and then accelerate their EV investment to plug the gap.
The contrary position would be investment spent on the ICE development that has to be recouped in 5 years which it can't be so the price of ICE then rises and makes EV more attractive so the consumer will opt for EV and the ICE investment is the proven white elephant.

I'm not sure whether I explained that very well.  Hope it made sense.

Martyn1981

I got your point, and it is complex. Given that we want to reduce emissions (CO2 and pollution) from cars, then it seems fair to up the standards for ICEV's. At the very least it helps to level the playing field, by pricing in some more of the externality costs.

JKenH

Grumpy_chap said:

Earlier in the day, I said the idea "don't introduce EURO 7" made sense as it would avoid investment spend going to ICE.

I actually thought about that more through the day, and a higher EURO 7 standard in 2025 might make sense along with keeping the ICE ban for new vehicles from 2030 as a tool to drive faster conversion to EV.
This would work if manufacturers realised the folly of investment to improve ICE so simply ditch any ICE-equipped cars that can't easily meet the EURO 7 requirements and then accelerate their EV investment to plug the gap.
The contrary position would be investment spent on the ICE development that has to be recouped in 5 years which it can't be so the price of ICE then rises and makes EV more attractive so the consumer will opt for EV and the ICE investment is the proven white elephant.

I'm not sure whether I explained that very well.  Hope it made sense.

I understand where you are coming from but the elephant in the room here is battery supply. 

If the European OEMs find Euro7 too expensive they could throw in the towel on ICEvs and focus on EVs. Mission accomplished you might say, if you are looking at it purely from an environmental point of view, but in fact it would decimate the European car industry. 

Even if the European manufacturers could convert their factories to EV production in 2-3 years there just wouldn’t be the battery supply available and that cannot be ramped up at anything like the rate needed to enable EV manufacture to replace ICEvs. 

Even if the manufacturing problem was solved the charging infrastructure would not be there to support 100% EV sales. I do not have much experience of Europe but from what I have seen there appear to be just as many people (if not more) living in apartments/densely populated areas without off street parking as in the UK. I may be wrong here but don’t more Europeans rent than in the UK so who is going to install chargers in all the rented properties? The infrastructure development needed would be enormous. While I accept this could be spread over a longer timescale there may still be be a lot of people wanting to buy new cars in 2025-2030 that simply couldn’t because the charging infrastructure is not in place for it to be feasible. 

Meanwhile the Asian OEMs pick up the ICE sales in other markets (Asia, Americas, Africa) which the European manufacturers can no longer supply because they have stopped developing/manufacturing, thus compensating for any lost ICE sales in Europe due to Euro7 regulations.

If the European manufacturers accept the challenge of much stricter Euro7 regulations then their costs will increase and they will become uncompetitive outside Europe and again lose market share to Asian manufacturers and eventually go out of business as their development costs cannot be recouped from purely European sales.

Does the EU really want to bankrupt its own car industry with all the implications for employment and balance of payments?

In a worst case scenario EU legislators stand their ground on stricter Euro7 regulations, the supply of new ICE cars dries up in 2025 before EVs have taken 50% of the new car market, the public revolts and the EU backs down but it is too late. The EU ICE car industry is gone and the Japanese OEMs whose demise has long been predicted are shooting at an open goal.