EV Discussion thread

EricMears

Are we assuming that European manufacturers "can't afford" to implement  Euro7 but that Asian manufacturers  would have no problem with complying ?

JKenH

EricMears said:

Are we assuming that European manufacturers "can't afford" to implement  Euro7 but that Asian manufacturers  would have no problem with complying ?

No, Asian manufacturers will expand their sales in markets with looser regulations (typically third world) that European manufacturers may no longer be able to service because either they have given up on ICE or Euro 7 has made their products too expensive to sell there. They will face the same problem selling in Europe as European manufacturers. As an example, only around 10% of Toyota’s sales are to Europe. Toyota do particularly well in expanding markets such as Indonesia and South Africa so losing European sales would not be the death knell for them that it would be for European OEMs. 

My comments were simply an alternative scenario to the thesis put forward by @Grumpy_chap that Euro7 standards might be good news for EV manufacture in Europe.

The reality is far more complex as all manufacturers will have to spend more money on developing engines to meet new emissions standards being introduced in China in 2023 and potentially in the US (expansion of California standards across the whole country). Because a vehicle is designed to Euro 7 standard does not mean it will meet new Chinese or US standards, it just imposes an additional burden on manufacturers wanting to sell in Europe. It might be better to align standards with China. 

EricMears

JKenH said:

EricMears said:

Are we assuming that European manufacturers "can't afford" to implement  Euro7 but that Asian manufacturers  would have no problem with complying ?

No, Asian manufacturers will expand their sales in markets with looser regulations (typically third world) that European manufacturers may no longer be able to service because either they have given up on ICE or Euro 7 has made their products too expensive to sell there. They will face the same problem selling in Europe as European manufacturers. As an example, only around 10% of Toyota’s sales are to Europe. Toyota do particularly well in expanding markets such as Indonesia and South Africa so losing European sales would not be the death knell for them that it would be for European OEMs. 

European manufacturers could of course continue to build 'old style' ICEs for export to your 'markets with looser regulations' and spend some of their time building Euro 7 vehicles for markets with tighter regulations.

JKenH

EricMears said:

JKenH said:

EricMears said:

Are we assuming that European manufacturers "can't afford" to implement  Euro7 but that Asian manufacturers  would have no problem with complying ?

No, Asian manufacturers will expand their sales in markets with looser regulations (typically third world) that European manufacturers may no longer be able to service because either they have given up on ICE or Euro 7 has made their products too expensive to sell there. They will face the same problem selling in Europe as European manufacturers. As an example, only around 10% of Toyota’s sales are to Europe. Toyota do particularly well in expanding markets such as Indonesia and South Africa so losing European sales would not be the death knell for them that it would be for European OEMs. 

European manufacturers could of course continue to build 'old style' ICEs for export to your 'markets with looser regulations' and spend some of their time building Euro 7 vehicles for markets with tighter regulations.

I imagine they could - it will all depend on how complex the changes are to meet the regs. I don’t suppose it will be as simple as just bolting another box onto the exhaust.The development cost alone is reported to be huge according to BMW. 

Standardisation is a big part of manufacturing. You may just be old enough to remember MG bolting on rubber bumpers and increasing the ride height on their MGB and Midget models in 1976 to meet American regs. The changes were very poorly received in the UK where many enthusiasts just lowered the cars and bought chrome bumpers. It would have been a simple job to fit different bumpers and springs for the UK market but, no, we all had to put up with the hideous changes demanded by the US.

Martyn1981

EricMears said:

JKenH said:

EricMears said:

Are we assuming that European manufacturers "can't afford" to implement  Euro7 but that Asian manufacturers  would have no problem with complying ?

No, Asian manufacturers will expand their sales in markets with looser regulations (typically third world) that European manufacturers may no longer be able to service because either they have given up on ICE or Euro 7 has made their products too expensive to sell there. They will face the same problem selling in Europe as European manufacturers. As an example, only around 10% of Toyota’s sales are to Europe. Toyota do particularly well in expanding markets such as Indonesia and South Africa so losing European sales would not be the death knell for them that it would be for European OEMs. 

European manufacturers could of course continue to build 'old style' ICEs for export to your 'markets with looser regulations' and spend some of their time building Euro 7 vehicles for markets with tighter regulations.

Those 'looser' markets are also prime for picking by China with their 'looser' car offerings. For instance the Wuling Mini EV that sells for around $6k couldn't be sold as a car in Europe or the US. It might class as an electric quadracycle in some European countries, but is probably too heavy, and could sell in the US as a NEV (neighbourhood electric vehicle), where in some communities and low speed roads, golf carts are popular for nipping around.

Developing countries that currently purchase only small numbers of cars (per capita), are rapidly adopting electric 2 & 3 wheelers, which is an important success story, as those smaller vehicles have horrendous localised emissions (as do ICE outboard motors, and landscaping tools), plus of course the noise. 

There are already a growing number of small starts up in India, Africa etc, building cheap and basic BEV's, again, given the 'looser' regulations for cars. So hopefully those markets, as their ownership of cars grows, will be able to largely leapfrog the ICE age for new vehicles.

gefnew

Not good news on the battery front for the Uk.
UK battery firm Britishvolt near collapse as it seeks funding - BBC News

JKenH

Used Tesla Model 3 prices are leveling out in the UK

https://www.teslarati.com/used-tesla-model-3-prices-leveling-out-uk/

I originally posted this to the EV news thread but wanting to add a comment about my own experiences I moved it to here.

My son has expressed interest in my 2020 Nissan Leaf 40kWh so I got an idea of its value from Webuyanycar.com and he did the same for his 30kWh Leaf. I was initially quite pleased with the price offered but over the next 3 weeks wbac updated the price several times.

That’s a price drop of around £3k in less than a month. Meanwhile my son’s 30kWh model dropped just £200 (£12k to £11.8k)

I suspect higher mortgage rates and bigger fuel bills are beginning to have an impact.

I would expect sales of new EVs to be less affected in the short term as most will have been in order for several months but it will no doubt feed through in time.

michaels

I'm looking for a 40 so I can run my heat pump using v2h and 4.5p per khw leccy so excellent news if prices are falling - but I wonder how long it will take sellers who are currently chancing their arm with eye-watering asking prices to realise....

JKenH

EVs energise new car market but chargepoint rollout must accelerate

Latest SMMT report

Zero emission capable car deliveries continued to grow in volume, with battery electric vehicle (BEV) registrations increasing by 23.4% to 19,933 and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) by 6.2% to 8,899. However, BEV uptake grew by less than the overall market for the first time since the pandemic, meaning October is the first month to see BEV market share fall year on year since May 2021, primarily attributable to supply challenges.

Personally I am pleased to see the Ford Fiesta back in its traditional position. It just demonstrates how sales have been distorted by recent events. Demand I am sure has always been there but Ford elected for a while not to manufacture the car and is in fact binning it next year. Doesn’t make any sense to me but obviously it does to the bean counters. 

https://www.smmt.co.uk/2022/11/evs-energise-new-car-market-but-chargepoint-rollout-must-accelerate/

Grumpy_chap

JKenH said:

Personally I am pleased to see the Ford Fiesta back in its traditional position. It just demonstrates how sales have been distorted by recent events. Demand I am sure has always been there but Ford elected for a while not to manufacture the car and is in fact binning it next year. Doesn’t make any sense to me but obviously it does to the bean counters. 

I mentioned much the same and was rounded upon for suggesting volume was a worthy metric, but manufacturers would pursue low volume, high profit strategy.

I suspect, when cost of living challenges bite, significant discount will be available on all sorts of cars.