We'd like to remind Forumites to please avoid political debate on the Forum. This is to keep it a safe and useful space for MoneySaving discussions. Threads that are - or become - political in nature may be removed in line with the Forum’s rules. Thank you for your understanding.

EV Discussion thread

Options
1293294296298299352

Comments

  • JKenH
    JKenH Posts: 4,899 Forumite
    First Anniversary Name Dropper First Post
    Options
    silvercar said:
    JKenH said:
    The UK accounted for 0.55%of Toyota’s worldwide sales in 2024. If 2023’s sales performance of 62,020 cars were repeated and assuming  no EV sales Toyota would face a £15k penalty on 13,644 cars. That’s a hefty sum - £204,660,000 but less than 1% of their anticipated global profits. 


    What is in it, long term, for Tesla, BYD, etc to sell credits to legacy auto?

    Will legacy auto say they will not buy credits from competitors at any price and prefer to discount EV prices to achieve sufficient EV sales to avoid the tariff?
    For Tesla etc: Money. A bit like farmers being paid to keep their fields empty.

    For legacy autos: It's a calculation. I doubt there are principles involved. 
    For Tesla $1.79bn last year, that’s around $1,000 per car sold. 

    I have argued in the past against transferable emissions credits but others on here have supported them - perhaps because Tesla is getting the benefit rather than HMG. 
    Northern Lincolnshire. 7.8 kWp system, (4.2 kw west facing panels , 3.6 kw east facing), Solis inverters, Solar IBoost water heater, Mitsubishi SRK35ZS-S and SRK20ZS-S Wall Mounted Inverter Heat Pumps, ex Nissan Leaf owner)
  • Grumpy_chap
    Grumpy_chap Posts: 15,413 Forumite
    First Anniversary First Post Name Dropper Combo Breaker
    Options
    OK, so it's a lot of money for Tesla in the short term.
    If Tesla (and BYD etc) all steadfastly refused to sell credits, would the outcome be the failure of some legacy auto manufacturers?
    Of course, once one EV manufacturer is happy to sell credits, they all need to.

    My consideration for legacy auto was whether they would have any appetite to fund the growth of their competitors.  Seems like they do.
  • JKenH
    JKenH Posts: 4,899 Forumite
    First Anniversary Name Dropper First Post
    edited 12 February at 1:17PM
    Options
    Last year 314,687 BEVs were sold of which I believe Tesla sold 47840 and Polestar 11,587 leaving a residue of 255,260 from the OEMs. Total car sales were 1,903,054 so, of the 1,843,627 cars sold by OEMs, the average EV proportion was just 13.8%. To increase this to 22% (assuming overall sales remain the same) would require that non Tesla and Polestar sales increase to 405,598 or (assuming Tesla and Polestar sales remain static) a grand total of 465,000 BEV sales in 2024. That’s overall growth of 48% in the BEV market to 24.4% market share. With BEV’s share of sales flatlining last year at 16.5% that isn’t going to happen. 

    If all the OEMs maintained their present level of EV sales through 2024 the potential shortfall of 150k cars from the ZEV mandate would potentially earn the government £2.25bn. I really don’t see that level of tax being accepted, lying down, by the OEMs and, unless demand for BEVs substantially increases, I suspect the 2027 review date for the ZEV mandate will be hurriedly brought forward. 
    Northern Lincolnshire. 7.8 kWp system, (4.2 kw west facing panels , 3.6 kw east facing), Solis inverters, Solar IBoost water heater, Mitsubishi SRK35ZS-S and SRK20ZS-S Wall Mounted Inverter Heat Pumps, ex Nissan Leaf owner)
  • Grumpy_chap
    Grumpy_chap Posts: 15,413 Forumite
    First Anniversary First Post Name Dropper Combo Breaker
    Options
    JKenH said:
    the ZEV mandate would potentially earn the government £2.25bn. I really don’t see that level of tax being accepted, lying down, by the OEMs and, unless demand for BEVs substantially increases, I suspect the 2027 review date for the ZEV mandate will be hurriedly brought forward. 

    Maybe the Government objective is nothing to do with raising tax revenue and all about driving change.
    Maybe legacy auto will use some of the £2bn to discount the sales price of EV's so increasing EV sales relative to ICE.
  • JKenH
    JKenH Posts: 4,899 Forumite
    First Anniversary Name Dropper First Post
    Options
    JKenH said:
    the ZEV mandate would potentially earn the government £2.25bn. I really don’t see that level of tax being accepted, lying down, by the OEMs and, unless demand for BEVs substantially increases, I suspect the 2027 review date for the ZEV mandate will be hurriedly brought forward. 

    Maybe the Government objective is nothing to do with raising tax revenue and all about driving change.
    Maybe legacy auto will use some of the £2bn to discount the sales price of EV's so increasing EV sales relative to ICE.
    All government policies, ultimately, are about staying in power. Well, almost all - the present government didn’t get the memo. 
    Northern Lincolnshire. 7.8 kWp system, (4.2 kw west facing panels , 3.6 kw east facing), Solis inverters, Solar IBoost water heater, Mitsubishi SRK35ZS-S and SRK20ZS-S Wall Mounted Inverter Heat Pumps, ex Nissan Leaf owner)
  • Martyn1981
    Martyn1981 Posts: 14,873 Forumite
    Name Dropper Photogenic First Anniversary First Post
    edited 12 February at 6:13PM
    Options
    JKenH said:
    The UK accounted for 0.55%of Toyota’s worldwide sales in 2024. If 2023’s sales performance of 62,020 cars were repeated and assuming  no EV sales Toyota would face a £15k penalty on 13,644 cars. That’s a hefty sum - £204,660,000 but less than 1% of their anticipated global profits. 
    Assuming your figures are correct, a penalty of 1% global profits is disproportionate to 0.55% global sales.
    BUT, that was for zero EV sales. 
    I am not knowledgeable on how the formula works, so how many EVs Toyota need to sell in UK to reduce the penalty to either 0.55% global profits (aligned with sales proportion) or to NIL.

    Interesting, the likes of Tesla and BYD will be able to see the same data you can see and will be able to use that information to value credits should they choose to sell them.

    What is in it, long term, for Tesla, BYD, etc to sell credits to legacy auto?

    Will legacy auto say they will not buy credits from competitors at any price and prefer to discount EV prices to achieve sufficient EV sales to avoid the tariff?
    And of course not just the UK. The EU ZEV mandate for 2030 is ~55% I believe, and the US around 35%. 

    Edit - Probably should have added that the EU figure rises to 100% for 2035, although there is a loophole for ICE vehicles provided they 'operate only on carbon-neutral fuels, often generically referred to as ‘e-fuels.’ Doubt that exception will result in any significant number of ICE sales.
    Mart. Cardiff. 5.58 kWp PV systems (3.58 ESE & 2.0 WNW). Two A2A units for cleaner heating. Two BEV's.

    For general PV advice please see the PV FAQ thread on the Green & Ethical Board.
  • JKenH
    JKenH Posts: 4,899 Forumite
    First Anniversary Name Dropper First Post
    edited 12 February at 3:27PM
    Options
    JKenH said:
    The UK accounted for 0.55%of Toyota’s worldwide sales in 2024. If 2023’s sales performance of 62,020 cars were repeated and assuming  no EV sales Toyota would face a £15k penalty on 13,644 cars. That’s a hefty sum - £204,660,000 but less than 1% of their anticipated global profits. 
    Assuming your figures are correct, a penalty of 1% global profits is disproportionate to 0.55% global sales.
    BUT, that was for zero EV sales. 
    I am not knowledgeable on how the formula works, so how many EVs Toyota need to sell in UK to reduce the penalty to either 0.55% global profits (aligned with sales proportion) or to NIL.

    Interesting, the likes of Tesla and BYD will be able to see the same data you can see and will be able to use that information to value credits should they choose to sell them.

    What is in it, long term, for Tesla, BYD, etc to sell credits to legacy auto?

    Will legacy auto say they will not buy credits from competitors at any price and prefer to discount EV prices to achieve sufficient EV sales to avoid the tariff?
    And of course not just the UK. The EU ZEV mandate for 2030 is ~55% I believe, and the US around 35%. 
    While I stand to be corrected, my understanding is that there is no quota set on EV sales in the EU before 2035. Perhaps there is some confusion with the EU’s requirement for average emissions for new cars to fall 55% by 2030 as part of the EU’s Fit for 55 policy. While a move to EVs will facilitate this it isn’t specific as to how this is to be achieved. Neither was I aware of any EV quotas being set in the U.S. for 2030, but again please correct me if I am wrong. 

    Northern Lincolnshire. 7.8 kWp system, (4.2 kw west facing panels , 3.6 kw east facing), Solis inverters, Solar IBoost water heater, Mitsubishi SRK35ZS-S and SRK20ZS-S Wall Mounted Inverter Heat Pumps, ex Nissan Leaf owner)
  • ABrass
    ABrass Posts: 1,005 Forumite
    First Post Name Dropper First Anniversary
    Options
    JKenH said:
    Last year 314,687 BEVs were sold of which I believe Tesla sold 47840 and Polestar 11,587 leaving a residue of 255,260 from the OEMs. Total car sales were 1,903,054 so, of the 1,843,627 cars sold by OEMs, the average EV proportion was just 13.8%. To increase this to 22% (assuming overall sales remain the same) would require that non Tesla and Polestar sales increase to 405,598 or (assuming Tesla and Polestar sales remain static) a grand total of 465,000 BEV sales in 2024. That’s overall growth of 48% in the BEV market to 24.4% market share. With BEV’s share of sales flatlining last year at 16.5% that isn’t going to happen. 

    If all the OEMs maintained their present level of EV sales through 2024 the potential shortfall of 150k cars from the ZEV mandate would potentially earn the government £2.25bn. I really don’t see that level of tax being accepted, lying down, by the OEMs and, unless demand for BEVs substantially increases, I suspect the 2027 review date for the ZEV mandate will be hurriedly brought forward. 
    Of course they won't need to do that as Tesla and Polestar and BYD will sell their credits on.

    BEV sales increased by 18% last year without any incentives. I don't think an increase in volumes of 25% is going to be that difficult.
    8kW (4kW WNW, 4kW SSE) 6kW inverter. 6.5kWh battery.
  • JKenH
    JKenH Posts: 4,899 Forumite
    First Anniversary Name Dropper First Post
    edited 13 February at 8:43AM
    Options
    ABrass said:
    JKenH said:
    Last year 314,687 BEVs were sold of which I believe Tesla sold 47840 and Polestar 11,587 leaving a residue of 255,260 from the OEMs. Total car sales were 1,903,054 so, of the 1,843,627 cars sold by OEMs, the average EV proportion was just 13.8%. To increase this to 22% (assuming overall sales remain the same) would require that non Tesla and Polestar sales increase to 405,598 or (assuming Tesla and Polestar sales remain static) a grand total of 465,000 BEV sales in 2024. That’s overall growth of 48% in the BEV market to 24.4% market share. With BEV’s share of sales flatlining last year at 16.5% that isn’t going to happen. 

    If all the OEMs maintained their present level of EV sales through 2024 the potential shortfall of 150k cars from the ZEV mandate would potentially earn the government £2.25bn. I really don’t see that level of tax being accepted, lying down, by the OEMs and, unless demand for BEVs substantially increases, I suspect the 2027 review date for the ZEV mandate will be hurriedly brought forward. 
    Of course they won't need to do that as Tesla and Polestar and BYD will sell their credits on.

    BEV sales increased by 18% last year without any incentives. I don't think an increase in volumes of 25% is going to be that difficult.
    Yes, Tesla and Polestar will be able to sell credits as they have done in past years to those struggling to meet emissions targets. The credits will probably be worth even more now. I’m not sure how the credits work. This article from Electrifying.com suggests Tesla may have 39,000 credits and Polestar7,800 which could be worth £10-14k a car. https://www.electrifying.com/blog/article/tesla-zev-windfall-could-lead-to-lower-prices

    That’s how I thought it might work but this article from the National Franchise Dealer association suggests it may work differently. https://www.nfda-uk.co.uk/industry-issues/zev-mandate

    If Tesla and Polestar can earn £10-14k for every car over the 22% they sell then we may see substantial price cuts in the UK for their cars which will help overall take up of EVs but make it harder for OEMs to compete, thus piling on the pain. Rather than sell an EV at a huge loss, as Ford apparently do, it may be cheaper for OEMs to just buy credits. 

    Manufacturers can almost borrow credits from previous years and also can convert some credits from non zero cars such as PHEVS.

    As for the 18% growth last year that was in a market that grew by 18% so the BEV share remained the same. It isn’t volumes that need to grow but the share of BEVs sold - by 33%. Also it isn’t fair to say there were no incentives last year. The fleet market receives substantial tax incentives and company car drivers and SalSac users also receive substantial BIK benefits (tax savings) which do play a significant part in pushing people into EVs. Ask any SalSac user and they will probably say the BIK rules were a significant, if not the main driver, for their switch to EVs. There are also still VED benefits particularly in respect of cars worth over £40k.
    Northern Lincolnshire. 7.8 kWp system, (4.2 kw west facing panels , 3.6 kw east facing), Solis inverters, Solar IBoost water heater, Mitsubishi SRK35ZS-S and SRK20ZS-S Wall Mounted Inverter Heat Pumps, ex Nissan Leaf owner)
  • JKenH
    JKenH Posts: 4,899 Forumite
    First Anniversary Name Dropper First Post
    Options
    Comment from the EV industry on prospects for 2024.


    Will electric car sales hit the UK’s required 22% target in 2024?


    Mike Potter, managing director of DriveElectric, one of the UK’s leading electric vehicle leasing companies, on what we can expect to see in 2024.


    There are significant incentives for company employees to switch to EVs, such as very low Benefit-in-Kind (BiK) tax rates (2% until April 2025, then rising by 1% each year to 5% in April 2028). These low BiK rates have fuelled the increasing popularity of salary sacrifice, which can reduce the monthly cost of driving an EV by up to 40% for the employees of an organisation.

    We expect that the combination of factors such as the ZEV mandate and the cost savings for businesses switching to EVs will result in continued upward sales growth, with DriveElectric forecasting 380,000 registrations of battery electric cars in 2024. Based on two million new car registrations in total, this equates to a market share of 19% for battery electric cars (compared to 16.5% in 2023).

    https://fleetworld.co.uk/will-electric-car-sales-hit-the-uks-required-22-target-in-2024/
    Northern Lincolnshire. 7.8 kWp system, (4.2 kw west facing panels , 3.6 kw east facing), Solis inverters, Solar IBoost water heater, Mitsubishi SRK35ZS-S and SRK20ZS-S Wall Mounted Inverter Heat Pumps, ex Nissan Leaf owner)
Meet your Ambassadors

Categories

  • All Categories
  • 344.8K Banking & Borrowing
  • 250.6K Reduce Debt & Boost Income
  • 450.4K Spending & Discounts
  • 236.9K Work, Benefits & Business
  • 610.8K Mortgages, Homes & Bills
  • 173.9K Life & Family
  • 249.7K Travel & Transport
  • 1.5M Hobbies & Leisure
  • 15.9K Discuss & Feedback
  • 15.1K Coronavirus Support Boards