EV Discussion thread

JKenH

Used EV prices bottom out as bargains tempt buyers

Modest rise in the values of budget models gives hope to traders

Used electric vehicle prices bottomed out in September and October and even outperformed those for petrol and diesel models, new data shows.

Budget models such as the Renault Zoe and Nissan Leaf actually rose in value during the past two months, according to figures from used market analyst CAP HPI. 

https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/business-car-sales/used-ev-prices-2023

michaels

1961Nick said:

News of a delay in the model 2 roadmap will cause a few sighs of relief in several automotive boardrooms.

I don't think Q4 will be that great either - The amount of discounts/incentives on the outgoing M3 is bound to hit gross margin along with increasing Cybertruck costs.

Q1 may see things settle down as deliveries of Highland get into full flow without discounting. A few Cybertruck deliveries may also reduce the cash burn on that line.

Not a great quarter, but I'd rather have Tesla's problems than those of legacy auto's EV divisions.

I am worried that their extremely poor execution is leaving them very vulnerable to the Chinese.  Their 1.5 models (3/Y) can pretty much only sustain 1-2m vehicles a year regardless of pricing.  The Chinese seem to manage to bring their model pipeline to market much faster than Tesla.  Tesla should have set up in China in such a manner that China could have developed and built their 'model 2 (and model 1) even if it meant it did not come to the US (it is nto such a big segment in the US anyway) and then China could also have worked on developing all the other segment vehicles on the existing 3/Y platform (small roadster, small chunky mpv, large chunky 3 row mpv. small pick up etc), the US friendly models could then have been added to the lines in Freemont/Texas.

Instead for some reason all they seem to have managed development wise is not quite deliver the cybertruck within 4 years of announcement and a mild refresh of the model 3.

1961Nick

michaels said:

1961Nick said:

News of a delay in the model 2 roadmap will cause a few sighs of relief in several automotive boardrooms.

I don't think Q4 will be that great either - The amount of discounts/incentives on the outgoing M3 is bound to hit gross margin along with increasing Cybertruck costs.

Q1 may see things settle down as deliveries of Highland get into full flow without discounting. A few Cybertruck deliveries may also reduce the cash burn on that line.

Not a great quarter, but I'd rather have Tesla's problems than those of legacy auto's EV divisions.

I am worried that their extremely poor execution is leaving them very vulnerable to the Chinese.  Their 1.5 models (3/Y) can pretty much only sustain 1-2m vehicles a year regardless of pricing.  The Chinese seem to manage to bring their model pipeline to market much faster than Tesla.  Tesla should have set up in China in such a manner that China could have developed and built their 'model 2 (and model 1) even if it meant it did not come to the US (it is nto such a big segment in the US anyway) and then China could also have worked on developing all the other segment vehicles on the existing 3/Y platform (small roadster, small chunky mpv, large chunky 3 row mpv. small pick up etc), the US friendly models could then have been added to the lines in Freemont/Texas.

Instead for some reason all they seem to have managed development wise is not quite deliver the cybertruck within 4 years of announcement and a mild refresh of the model 3.

With everything they've learnt about manufacturing the 3/Y, I'd have thought that there would be more urgency to get a Model 2 to market as that's the only way that Tesla will get beyond 2.5M vehicles pa. The Mexico factory looked as if that was the first piece in the jigsaw but that's now on hold or even cancelled? I'm wondering if they've moved the focus to India for the Model 2? It's a big market & labour is very cheap.

It's a shame they went so far off field with the Cybertruck because if they'd just done a tesla version of the F150 it'd probably be on sale now & they wouldn't be facing all the problems trying to ramp production on an entirely new manufacturing concept. I might be wrong & it could turn out to be the next F150 but somehow I think it's always going to be a niche vehicle once the initial furore is over. Do you really need an F1 concept for a pickup truck??

On the plus side, the Model 3 refresh is a significant upgrade & at a lower price - both retail & cost to manufacture. This will probably lead to some good figures for Q2 but obviously some of that may come at the expense of the Y.

JKenH

Another Telegraph article on EV insurance. I am, though, primarily posting this for these survey figures among Telegraph readers.


https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/net-zero/ev-electric-car-insurance-premiums-peugeot-tesla/

Telegraph readers may not be representative of the population as a whole, being more conservative, bit they are (probably on average) more likely to be able to afford an EV and live somewhere where they have off road parking. (I’ve no evidence of that but just throw it in to balance the inevitable comments that they don’t care about the environment or climate change).

It is one of the lowest survey results I have seen recently and while it is only a small subset, it is a large number of respondents and shows there is still along way to go to win over the population as a whole. 

For the record, I did vote Yes. 

Edit: in case any one thinks that this survey result doesn’t reflect reality I should point out that of the 273k cars sold in September 123k or 45% were bought by private buyers. Of the 45k electric cars sold in September the SMMT says less than 1 in 10 (<4.5k) went to private buyers - that means just 3.65% of new car sales to private buyers were BEVs. 

1961Nick

JKenH said:

Another Telegraph article on EV insurance. I am, though, primarily posting this for these survey figures among Telegraph readers.


https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/net-zero/ev-electric-car-insurance-premiums-peugeot-tesla/

Telegraph readers may not be representative of the population as a whole, being more conservative, bit they are (probably on average) more likely to be able to afford an EV and live somewhere where they have off road parking. (I’ve no evidence of that but just throw it in to balance the inevitable comments that they don’t care about the environment or climate change).

It is one of the lowest survey results I have seen recently and while it is only a small subset, it is a large number of respondents and shows there is still along way to go to win over the population as a whole. 

For the record, I did vote Yes. 

I was also one of the 'Yes' votes.

The comments sections are populated by the offspring of Ned Ludd & it's hard to believe that these are supposedly educated people from reading some of the replies. 

michaels

JKenH said:

Another Telegraph article on EV insurance. I am, though, primarily posting this for these survey figures among Telegraph readers.


https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/net-zero/ev-electric-car-insurance-premiums-peugeot-tesla/

Telegraph readers may not be representative of the population as a whole, being more conservative, bit they are (probably on average) more likely to be able to afford an EV and live somewhere where they have off road parking. (I’ve no evidence of that but just throw it in to balance the inevitable comments that they don’t care about the environment or climate change).

It is one of the lowest survey results I have seen recently and while it is only a small subset, it is a large number of respondents and shows there is still along way to go to win over the population as a whole. 

For the record, I did vote Yes. 

Edit: in case any one thinks that this survey result doesn’t reflect reality I should point out that of the 273k cars sold in September 123k or 45% were bought by private buyers. Of the 45k electric cars sold in September the SMMT says less than 1 in 10 (<4.5k) went to private buyers - that means just 3.65% of new car sales to private buyers were BEVs. 

Given that the likelihood of there not being a ban on non ev sales by 2035 is about zero under any political scenario one must assume that the average tory graph reader is pretty old.

JKenH

1961Nick said:

JKenH said:

Another Telegraph article on EV insurance. I am, though, primarily posting this for these survey figures among Telegraph readers.


https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/net-zero/ev-electric-car-insurance-premiums-peugeot-tesla/

Telegraph readers may not be representative of the population as a whole, being more conservative, bit they are (probably on average) more likely to be able to afford an EV and live somewhere where they have off road parking. (I’ve no evidence of that but just throw it in to balance the inevitable comments that they don’t care about the environment or climate change).

It is one of the lowest survey results I have seen recently and while it is only a small subset, it is a large number of respondents and shows there is still along way to go to win over the population as a whole. 

For the record, I did vote Yes. 

I was also one of the 'Yes' votes.

The comments sections are populated by the offspring of Ned Ludd & it's hard to believe that these are supposedly educated people from reading some of the replies. 

But if >96% of people actually buying a new car with their own money (or borrowing it) are still choosing a car with some form of ICE propulsion it does suggest that the car buying public as a whole are not yet convinced about EVs (for whatever reason). EV sales, not just in the UK but everywhere, are being driven by government policies, be it carrot or stick or a combination of the two. The supposed advantages of EVs themselves are not driving sales much past the early adopter stage. The much talked about “S curve” of disruption with comparisons to the motor car replacing horses, digital cameras replacing film, CDs replacing LPs etc isn’t playing out as expected because the EV essentially doesn’t do anything much better than an ICE car, at least not so far as the private buyer is concerned. Most people buy a car to get themselves and their family from A to B in comfort and the ICE car does that just as well as an EV. Unless you really want an EV, there just aren’t sufficient compelling reasons to switch for most private buyers. What savings there are can be eaten up by costs elsewhere. 

 EV adoption is being driven by policy responses to climate concerns

1961Nick

JKenH said:

1961Nick said:

JKenH said:

Another Telegraph article on EV insurance. I am, though, primarily posting this for these survey figures among Telegraph readers.


https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/net-zero/ev-electric-car-insurance-premiums-peugeot-tesla/

Telegraph readers may not be representative of the population as a whole, being more conservative, bit they are (probably on average) more likely to be able to afford an EV and live somewhere where they have off road parking. (I’ve no evidence of that but just throw it in to balance the inevitable comments that they don’t care about the environment or climate change).

It is one of the lowest survey results I have seen recently and while it is only a small subset, it is a large number of respondents and shows there is still along way to go to win over the population as a whole. 

For the record, I did vote Yes. 

I was also one of the 'Yes' votes.

The comments sections are populated by the offspring of Ned Ludd & it's hard to believe that these are supposedly educated people from reading some of the replies. 

But if >96% of people actually buying a new car with their own money (or borrowing it) are still choosing a car with some form of ICE propulsion it does suggest that the car buying public as a whole are not yet convinced about EVs (for whatever reason). EV sales, not just in the UK but everywhere, are being driven by government policies, be it carrot or stick or a combination of the two. The supposed advantages of EVs themselves are not driving sales much past the early adopter stage. The much talked about “S curve” of disruption with comparisons to the motor car replacing horses, digital cameras replacing film, CDs replacing LPs etc isn’t playing out as expected because the EV essentially doesn’t do anything much better than an ICE car, at least not so far as the private buyer is concerned. Most people buy a car to get themselves and their family from A to B in comfort and the ICE car does that just as well as an EV. Unless you really want an EV, there just aren’t sufficient compelling reasons to switch for most private buyers. What savings there are can be eaten up by costs elsewhere. 

 EV adoption is being driven by policy responses to climate concerns

The standard of reporting by the likes of the DT doesn't help & calling it 'anti-EV' doesn't even come close to the actual bias. Those frequenting the comments section seem to have a pathological hatred of EVs & anyone who chooses to drive one. 

JKenH

As I said I just published the survey results - which at 16% in fact suggests more Telegraph readers will buy a car than the wider general public; in fact about 4 x as many. It probably is a good job the Telegraph exists so people can vent their spleen on it but so doing doesn’t address the fundamental problem that last month less than 4% of new cars sold to private buyers were BEVs. The percentage of private buyers opting for BEVs has dropped significantly this year when one would expect it to be going up. It isn’t the fault of the Telegraph or Daily Mail that 96% of private buyers still choose cars with some means of ICE propulsion. But rather than discuss why, the response is to try and belittle those newspapers and their readers.

I find it sad that some people feel it necessary to try and belittle publications that they disagree with by referring to them by anything other than their real titles - Daily Fail and Tory Graph spring to mind. Great if you are keen to wear your politics on your sleeve but not so great if you want to be taken seriously. Has anyone noticed that it is generally the right leaning newspapers that receive such treatment? One detects almost a sense of superiority (of opinion or morals) amongst those knocking right of centre views.

There is of course bias in most publications but the bias is generally only perceived if the views expressed differ from one’s own. Of late there has been a lot of criticism of the press in general being anti EV but the views expressed in the press coincide with the majority view. EV owners tend to have a very one sided view of the EV/ICE debate. Talking about pathological hatred, one only has to read the specialist EV and RE press and see the comments there about ICE drivers. 

We can all have our opinions and share them respectfully without taking the stance that anyone who doesn’t see the world like us is in some way backward or inferior. 

michaels

JKenH said:

1961Nick said:

JKenH said:

Another Telegraph article on EV insurance. I am, though, primarily posting this for these survey figures among Telegraph readers.


https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/net-zero/ev-electric-car-insurance-premiums-peugeot-tesla/

Telegraph readers may not be representative of the population as a whole, being more conservative, bit they are (probably on average) more likely to be able to afford an EV and live somewhere where they have off road parking. (I’ve no evidence of that but just throw it in to balance the inevitable comments that they don’t care about the environment or climate change).

It is one of the lowest survey results I have seen recently and while it is only a small subset, it is a large number of respondents and shows there is still along way to go to win over the population as a whole. 

For the record, I did vote Yes. 

I was also one of the 'Yes' votes.

The comments sections are populated by the offspring of Ned Ludd & it's hard to believe that these are supposedly educated people from reading some of the replies. 

But if >96% of people actually buying a new car with their own money (or borrowing it) are still choosing a car with some form of ICE propulsion it does suggest that the car buying public as a whole are not yet convinced about EVs (for whatever reason). EV sales, not just in the UK but everywhere, are being driven by government policies, be it carrot or stick or a combination of the two. The supposed advantages of EVs themselves are not driving sales much past the early adopter stage. The much talked about “S curve” of disruption with comparisons to the motor car replacing horses, digital cameras replacing film, CDs replacing LPs etc isn’t playing out as expected because the EV essentially doesn’t do anything much better than an ICE car, at least not so far as the private buyer is concerned. Most people buy a car to get themselves and their family from A to B in comfort and the ICE car does that just as well as an EV. Unless you really want an EV, there just aren’t sufficient compelling reasons to switch for most private buyers. What savings there are can be eaten up by costs elsewhere. 

 EV adoption is being driven by policy responses to climate concerns

As mentioned several times, the current company car driver benefits to EV also specifically harm private EV buyers as they effectively inflate new prices and depress used prices.