EV Discussion thread

ABrass

This thread has just turned into continuous posts over analysing insufficient data. Monthly sales data is not a sensible thing to base long term trends on for car sales. The market is too lumpy for that.

JKenH

ABrass said:

This thread has just turned into continuous posts over analysing insufficient data. Monthly sales data is not a sensible thing to base long term trends on for car sales. The market is too lumpy for that.

Agreed but there is a worrying trend. This was the situation in December, not a month when you would expect a lot of private buyers but they accounted for a third of BEV registrations. This surge was most probably due to a massive delivery push by Tesla , delivering orders that had been in the pipeline for months. Now that backlog has cleared we are returning to a more normal level of demand among private buyers. Note the concern then from SMMT that action will be required to enthuse more private buyers to go electric.


While private buyers accounted for more than half of all registrations, fleets and business buyers were responsible for the lion’s share of battery electric vehicles, accounting for two thirds (66.7%) of all BEV registrations and 74.7% of the volume gain in 2022. Delivering the scale and speed of market transition required to meet climate change targets will require action to enthuse more private buyers to go electric.

https://www.motortrader.com/motor-trader-news/automotive-news/new-car-sales-2022-hit-30-year-low-due-supply-shortages-05-01-2023

September might have been an oddball low month (even though traditionally it is a good month as it is end of quarter for Tesla) but it was not exceptional. The SMMT reported it was down 14 % which suggests August couldn’t have been much more than 12% private share of EVs.

Edit: That 14% fall, I now learn was by comparison to September 2022, not August.It isn’t exactly clear whether the 14% is actually 14% less than September 2022 or 14%points. This same article also says

“The SMMT’s chief executive Mike Hawes told the recent Electrified conference in central London that whereas private buyers used to make up a third of the EV market, “it’s down to about a quarter now”. 

https://www.autoexpress.co.uk/features/361289/are-evs-cheaper-run-petrol-or-diesel-cars-right-now-we-have-answers

The SMMT had earlier this month said private buyers made up less than 10% of EV sales in September so it is all very confusing. 

Grumpy_chap

1961Nick said:

I doubt anyone other than HMRC knows the number of SalSac vehicles on company fleets

I am not sure that HMRC would have that information.

1961Nick

Grumpy_chap said:

1961Nick said:

I doubt anyone other than HMRC knows the number of SalSac vehicles on company fleets

I am not sure that HMRC would have that information.

Not definitively, but they'll know the increase in the size of the company car fleet & what percentage are LEVs.

silverwhistle

Of late there has been a lot of criticism of the press in general being anti EV but the views expressed in the press coincide with the majority view.

That is rather a naive view in my opinion, given how certain sectors of the press try and lead opinion and indeed publish a lot of inaccurate and misleading information about EVs. Most of us who own EVs have had to correct misconceptions from the people we talk to on the subject. My profoundly deaf neighbour who lives in social housing was the most recent, with his comments (not quite the most accurate noun..) being about range. Trying to communicate that I needed a comfort visit before a charge was quite amusing..

As one of the few here, I reckon, who are private buyers of an EV I still reckon the bottom line is cost. I've probably bored some of you with pointing out more than once that my first EV(new) cost 5 times (more than 5 times actually) more than I'd ever paid for a car before. Savings, low outgoings particularly with Covid, pension income, and better late than never contributed to my purchase, beyond the desire for one of course. But financial stability and economic confidence is not particularly prevalent at the moment, so non-company /subsidised purchasers are likely thin on theground.

If I were buying now I'd be going second hand, given the selection now available three years on. I'm not alone as the post about second hand values above illustrates. As people experience EVs on a more direct and day to day basis I think opinions are changing. A Daily Telegraph poll, given their demographic and attitudes is probably not a very good representation of wider opinion or experience.

JKenH

silverwhistle said:

Of late there has been a lot of criticism of the press in general being anti EV but the views expressed in the press coincide with the majority view.

That is rather a naive view in my opinion, given how certain sectors of the press try and lead opinion and indeed publish a lot of inaccurate and misleading information about EVs. Most of us who own EVs have had to correct misconceptions from the people we talk to on the subject. My profoundly deaf neighbour who lives in social housing was the most recent, with his comments (not quite the most accurate noun..) being about range. Trying to communicate that I needed a comfort visit before a charge was quite amusing..

As one of the few here, I reckon, who are private buyers of an EV I still reckon the bottom line is cost. I've probably bored some of you with pointing out more than once that my first EV(new) cost 5 times (more than 5 times actually) more than I'd ever paid for a car before. Savings, low outgoings particularly with Covid, pension income, and better late than never contributed to my purchase, beyond the desire for one of course. But financial stability and economic confidence is not particularly prevalent at the moment, so non-company /subsidised purchasers are likely thin on theground.

If I were buying now I'd be going second hand, given the selection now available three years on. I'm not alone as the post about second hand values above illustrates. As people experience EVs on a more direct and day to day basis I think opinions are changing. A Daily Telegraph poll, given their demographic and attitudes is probably not a very good representation of wider opinion or experience.

With a readership that apparently prefers ICE cars to electric, one shouldn’t be surprised to see some articles critical of EVs just as in the Guardian one might expect to see articles supporting renewable energy or immigration. It has been said on here, often enough, that the newspapers print by and large what their readership wants them to print. Without government intervention people would buy EVs or ICE cars depending on their preferences. Part of the reaction from the DT and DM is because their readership don’t think they should be told what they should drive. Who is to say what is right and what is wrong? 

If financial stability and economic confidence is behind private buyers steering clear of new EVs why are the numbers buying ICE cars holding up so well? After discounts EVS are not that much more expensive than ICE cars to buy. I found it hard to believe that less than 4% of private new car purchases were BEVs but, unbelievable as it may seem, the facts speak for themselves. (I found the figures hard to believe and asked myself - did I get the figures wrong? - but nobody has corrected me yet)

You dismiss the DT poll as being unrepresentative but it may well be that DT readers are over represented when it comes to EV ownership (all the ingredients seem to be in place to fit the EV buyer profile* probably reasonably well off, better educated, own home with off street parking etc). It doesn’t matter though what people say in a poll, it’s what they do or don’t do that matters and at the moment it seems they aren’t buying new EVs. 

*https://www.hurstmediacompany.co.uk/the-daily-telegraph-profile/

1961Nick

JKenH said:

silverwhistle said:

Of late there has been a lot of criticism of the press in general being anti EV but the views expressed in the press coincide with the majority view.

That is rather a naive view in my opinion, given how certain sectors of the press try and lead opinion and indeed publish a lot of inaccurate and misleading information about EVs. Most of us who own EVs have had to correct misconceptions from the people we talk to on the subject. My profoundly deaf neighbour who lives in social housing was the most recent, with his comments (not quite the most accurate noun..) being about range. Trying to communicate that I needed a comfort visit before a charge was quite amusing..

As one of the few here, I reckon, who are private buyers of an EV I still reckon the bottom line is cost. I've probably bored some of you with pointing out more than once that my first EV(new) cost 5 times (more than 5 times actually) more than I'd ever paid for a car before. Savings, low outgoings particularly with Covid, pension income, and better late than never contributed to my purchase, beyond the desire for one of course. But financial stability and economic confidence is not particularly prevalent at the moment, so non-company /subsidised purchasers are likely thin on theground.

If I were buying now I'd be going second hand, given the selection now available three years on. I'm not alone as the post about second hand values above illustrates. As people experience EVs on a more direct and day to day basis I think opinions are changing. A Daily Telegraph poll, given their demographic and attitudes is probably not a very good representation of wider opinion or experience.

You dismiss the DT poll as being unrepresentative but it may well be that DT readers are over represented when it comes to EV ownership (all the ingredients seem to be in place to fit the EV buyer profile* probably reasonably well off, better educated, own home with off street parking etc). It doesn’t matter though what people say in a poll, it’s what they do or don’t do that matters and at the moment it seems they aren’t buying new EVs. 

*https://www.hurstmediacompany.co.uk/the-daily-telegraph-profile/

Maybe middle England are feeling the financial squeeze & can't afford a new EV? That would to some extent explain why there's so much antipathy towards those that have bought one. if you spent any time in the comments section, you'd think that most EV erupt into fireballs & those that don't will need a new battery after 5 years. 

Netexporter

I think the most likely explanation for the anti-EV stories is that the rags propagating them are being paid by the oil companies.

JKenH

1961Nick said:

JKenH said:

silverwhistle said:

Of late there has been a lot of criticism of the press in general being anti EV but the views expressed in the press coincide with the majority view.

That is rather a naive view in my opinion, given how certain sectors of the press try and lead opinion and indeed publish a lot of inaccurate and misleading information about EVs. Most of us who own EVs have had to correct misconceptions from the people we talk to on the subject. My profoundly deaf neighbour who lives in social housing was the most recent, with his comments (not quite the most accurate noun..) being about range. Trying to communicate that I needed a comfort visit before a charge was quite amusing..

As one of the few here, I reckon, who are private buyers of an EV I still reckon the bottom line is cost. I've probably bored some of you with pointing out more than once that my first EV(new) cost 5 times (more than 5 times actually) more than I'd ever paid for a car before. Savings, low outgoings particularly with Covid, pension income, and better late than never contributed to my purchase, beyond the desire for one of course. But financial stability and economic confidence is not particularly prevalent at the moment, so non-company /subsidised purchasers are likely thin on theground.

If I were buying now I'd be going second hand, given the selection now available three years on. I'm not alone as the post about second hand values above illustrates. As people experience EVs on a more direct and day to day basis I think opinions are changing. A Daily Telegraph poll, given their demographic and attitudes is probably not a very good representation of wider opinion or experience.

You dismiss the DT poll as being unrepresentative but it may well be that DT readers are over represented when it comes to EV ownership (all the ingredients seem to be in place to fit the EV buyer profile* probably reasonably well off, better educated, own home with off street parking etc). It doesn’t matter though what people say in a poll, it’s what they do or don’t do that matters and at the moment it seems they aren’t buying new EVs. 

*https://www.hurstmediacompany.co.uk/the-daily-telegraph-profile/

Maybe middle England are feeling the financial squeeze & can't afford a new EV? That would to some extent explain why there's so much antipathy towards those that have bought one. if you spent any time in the comments section, you'd think that most EV erupt into fireballs & those that don't will need a new battery after 5 years. 

So they are buying ICE cars instead. 

I was very keen to buy a new EV in 2020, having dipped a toe in the water with a secondhand Leaf a few months earlier. When I got my 40kWh Leaf I was delighted with it and went everywhere in it. I didn’t want an ICE car any more. I think the years around 2020/2021 were the golden time to buy  an EV - if you could get your hands on one. Although the myriad charging apps required were a pain, public chargers generally were available, lots were free and even the rapids were cheaper to use than filling up with petrol. There was a genuine spirit of being pioneers with everyone at chargers happy to chat while charging and be helpful. Enthusiastic early adopters were prepared to wait up to a year for an EV to be delivered knowing that with a shortage of supply the value of their cars would hold up well. Meanwhile the specialist EV and RE press were predicting the collapse of the ICE car market and anyone foolish enough to buy one would see its value plummet. An EV was a safe place to park your money, You might even make a profit! 

Then in 2021 the tax rules changed and people started getting them on SalSac and as company cars, and the mentality of EV drivers, I think, changed. They weren’t buying them because they wanted to join the EV community, they got them to save tax - not because they were the best car for their needs. People were now getting EVs for work who couldn’t charge at home putting more pressure on the charging network. As EV adoption increased, the charging infrastructure didn’t keep up. People found themselves queueing at chargers and that made the headlines. People at chargers were much more selfish and even aggressive and a new phenomenon of charger rage arrived (again making the news) Then came the energy crisis and many people without home chargers (whether because they didn’t have off street parking or because they didn’t have a smart meter) were finding it was costing as much, if not more to charge their car than put petrol in. The free charging at supermarkets and other destinations was no longer free. 

Those who had been considering buying a used EV to save money realised that with the higher cost of EVs the savings just weren’t there and demand for used EVs fell just as significant numbers of EVs were being de-fleeted leading to a sudden and dramatic collapse in used values. (My Leaf fell in value over 6 months from £20,650 to under £10,000). Meanwhile used ICE car values were holding up well. With the collapse in used values buying a new EV had gone from almost being an investment in 2020/2021 to burning £50 notes in 2023. People were dropping £15k in a year on their Teslas if they wanted to sell them. That must have made many people who might be buying an EV with their own money to think twice. With residual values falling the balance to finance on a PCP went up just as interest rates were stating to rise. 

Then to top it all in the last couple of months, people suddenly found that insurance prices for EVs were rising and many insurers (something like £78% compared to rises of 29% for ICE cars. Insurers were pulling out the market. People were going to the newspapers (not just the DT and DM) with stories of being asked to pay £5k to insure their EVs (although they did also usually report that by shopping around you could find somewhere to insure it for about 50% more than the previous year). 

Many, like @silverwhistle said, if buying an EV now would choose to go down the used EV route and not buy new. That’s fine)but at some stage we have to get people to buy new EVs again to meet the targets set by the government. That could be a long way away. 

JKenH

Netexporter said:

I think the most likely explanation for the anti-EV stories is that the rags propagating them are being paid by the oil companies.

Sadly many people do believe that.